Mitt Romney's political future (user search)
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  Mitt Romney's political future (search mode)
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Author Topic: Mitt Romney's political future  (Read 6619 times)
pbrower2a
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« on: February 08, 2009, 10:00:19 PM »

In the primary it doesn't matter Union memebers are all Dems. In the general Union members are what 20% of overall voters. OH I forgot You guys are going to pass the card check system. Great just what we need. Thousands of newly unionised workers going on strike driving the economy into a deep depression. Under thosse circumstances Romney could beat Obama in a landslide. I have heard this arguement of several on the left that Romney is done cause he would need the Great LAkes and he would not be supported by Unions so thats impossible. DON'T YOU BELIEVE IT. Romney is not a one region candidate. He has emense popularity out west even in states that aren't mormon like CO(2% mormon)were he got 60% without ever setting foot in the state. He also has strength in New England though it may not translate to much except a chance to win NH. Romney would have a lot of strength in the midwest despite not being like be Unions. You don;t have to be the darling of the UAW to win in IN just get more then 46% and actually organise in the state. Ohio too was very close despite the 7 point Obama win nationally. Romney can win MI, had McCain not pulled out that would have been under 8 points. and Romney can beat that definately. Plus if Chrylser or GM goes down on Obama's watch it won't look good for him.

Romney might win some primaries in the north -- in states like Massachusetts and Michigan that have no chance of voting for a Republican nominee for President in 2012.

How would Romney do in the South? Would he be a religious equivalent of Mike Dukakis? In that case the South votes in enough states for someone familiar to them that Obama wins a landslide. But that's the trouble for attempting to defeat an incumbent President: the challenger usually has too many ways in which to lose. 

The GOP must win the South -- all of the South -- to have a chance to elect a President of the United States these days.



 
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pbrower2a
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Posts: 26,839
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« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2009, 08:59:06 PM »

Don't doubt Mitt for a second. Had Huckabee dropped out back in January 2007 when people kept telling him to, Mitt would have won Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, and quite possibly South Carolina then Florida and had unstoppable momentum. With his economic credentials and executive experience against Barack Obama...and his good debating skills...with the economic meltdown...we could well have had a President Mitt Romney right now.

Romney has yet to show that he can win in the South, and Huckabee has yet to show that he can win outside the South. If Obama wins any former Confederate State in 2012 -- even Virginia, whose "southern" status has become suspect -- then lots of people will be watching basketball games or old movies with occasional flips of the remote to see how 'bad' the landslide is. If Obama wins one state from among Ohio, Indiana, or Missouri, then it's all over.

As hard as the Republican Party has become entwined with the Hard Right that offends sentiments in majorities in certain states (Gore2000 + NH, Kerry2004 + IA + NM) it will have a difficult time picking off any of the "safe" states that Democrats won four or five  out of five times in Presidential elections.  To win, the Republican Party needs a moderate nominee to negate the fear and loathing that New England and the West Coast have of a Party so connected to the Hard Right. Can a moderate win the GOP nomination? Hardly! 

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Iowa is incredibly fickle in its primaries.

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McCain did that by winning winner-take-all primaries in States that the GOP stood no chance of winning in November. Sometimes that is the way that one plays the game.

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McCain ran as a moderate with no marked regional weakness. McCain did his primary opponents in.

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Until the GOP becomes a moderate party instead of a party holding values that some regions that lock up 90% of the 270 electoral votes needed for victory, it isn't going to win the Presidency except in razor-thin victories in which everything goes right, as in 2000 and 2004. Do you want a scapegoat for what went wrong with the Republican Party?

His name is Karl Rove, whose plan for a "permanent majority" failed because it depended upon 49% of the electorate being unable to attract 2% of the rest.
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