Your Candidate in 2016-Democrats

[JSojourner]

JS, how are you not impressed by Warner's record?  He managed to turn Virginia around following the Allen and Gilmore years, and would've been reelected in a landslide if Virginia law allowed it.  I think he's more impressive than most of the other people, and would be young enough to run in 2016, unlike Biden and Hillary.

I'm neither impressed nor unimpressed with Warner.  One term as governor doesn't tell me nearly enough.  And I think Virginia's one term rule is dumb.  I'm not even a big fan of two-term limits. 

Warner is definitely a conservative...and probably too much so for me.   But I will keep an open mind.

Oh -- Clinton and Biden would not be too old to run for President.  And neither was John McCain.  Age is, to this old fart anyway, in a candidate's favor...

[Kaine for Senate '18]

JS, how are you not impressed by Warner's record?  He managed to turn Virginia around following the Allen and Gilmore years, and would've been reelected in a landslide if Virginia law allowed it.  I think he's more impressive than most of the other people, and would be young enough to run in 2016, unlike Biden and Hillary.

I'm neither impressed nor unimpressed with Warner.  One term as governor doesn't tell me nearly enough.  And I think Virginia's one term rule is dumb.  I'm not even a big fan of two-term limits. 

Warner is definitely a conservative...and probably too much so for me.   But I will keep an open mind.

You should take a look at his record; it's very impressive.  He'll do an excellent job in the Senate, and hopefully convince people like you to support him.

[Bacon King]

Merkley would be my favorite, I think, of the ones listed.

[Padfoot]

None of these candidates fit the proper age demographic.  Both the median and mean age of the last 8 elected presidents is 55.  Caroline Kennedy would be the closest candidate to that age in 2016 and she's probably the least likely one of these people to run.  With the exception of Sandlin, the rest of these people will be approaching or past 65 in 2016, plus Biden and Perdue will both be over 70.  Here's a list of current Democratic Senators and Governors who will be in their 50s on inauguration day in 2017:

Governors:
Chet Culver-IA (50)
Martin O'Malley-MD (53)
Jennifer Granholm-MI (57)
Brad Henry-OK (53)
Tim Kaine-VA (58)
Jack Markell-DE (56)

Senators:
Maria Cantwell-WA (58)
Bob Casey-PA (56)
Amy Klobuchar-MN (56)
Blanche Lincoln-AR (56)
Mark Begich-AK (54)
Mark Pryor-AR (54)

Granted age is not a be all, end all determining factor but the majority of our presidents have been elected in their 50s.  Including Obama, only 9 presidents have been elected before turning 50 and only 9 presidents have been elected after turning 60.  The remaining 21 elected presidents were elected between the ages of 50-59.

[Lunar]

Other (Alexi Giannoulias, assuming he can obtain higher office)

but of those listed, Schweitzer.  Schweitzer was my #1 non-Mabus choice for Obama's VP and he's kinda charming

[Purple State]

None of these candidates fit the proper age demographic.  Both the median and mean age of the last 8 elected presidents is 55.  Caroline Kennedy would be the closest candidate to that age in 2016 and she's probably the least likely one of these people to run.  With the exception of Sandlin, the rest of these people will be approaching or past 65 in 2016, plus Biden and Perdue will both be over 70.  Here's a list of current Democratic Senators and Governors who will be in their 50s on inauguration day in 2017:

Governors:
Chet Culver-IA (50)
Martin O'Malley-MD (53)
Jennifer Granholm-MI (57)
Brad Henry-OK (53)
Tim Kaine-VA (58)
Jack Markell-DE (56)

Senators:
Maria Cantwell-WA (58)
Bob Casey-PA (56)
Amy Klobuchar-MN (56)
Blanche Lincoln-AR (56)
Mark Begich-AK (54)
Mark Pryor-AR (54)

Granted age is not a be all, end all determining factor but the majority of our presidents have been elected in their 50s.  Including Obama, only 9 presidents have been elected before turning 50 and only 9 presidents have been elected after turning 60.  The remaining 21 elected presidents were elected between the ages of 50-59.

Median age is deceiving, especially because only one of the last 5 presidents (Bush) have fit that criteria. We have just happened to have old (Reagan) and quite young (Obama, Clinton). When you average old and young you get a median that's neither of those (it is 56 for the last 5 presidents).

Because of increasing life expectancy and changing times (i.e. the young, inspirational guy) it is actually more likely for someone to be elected before or after their 50's.

[perdedor]

Seeing as how this is looking much to far into the future, I will go ahead and say Jeff Merkely. I would be really disappointed if Warner or (to a lesser extent) Schweitzer became the figurehead of the party, especially after the defeat of Clinton in the primary. The party is drifting more toward the left as time goes on and barring massive failure on the part of Obama, I don't see anything in the near future to reverse that.

[Padfoot]

None of these candidates fit the proper age demographic.  Both the median and mean age of the last 8 elected presidents is 55.  Caroline Kennedy would be the closest candidate to that age in 2016 and she's probably the least likely one of these people to run.  With the exception of Sandlin, the rest of these people will be approaching or past 65 in 2016, plus Biden and Perdue will both be over 70.  Here's a list of current Democratic Senators and Governors who will be in their 50s on inauguration day in 2017:

Governors:
Chet Culver-IA (50)
Martin O'Malley-MD (53)
Jennifer Granholm-MI (57)
Brad Henry-OK (53)
Tim Kaine-VA (58)
Jack Markell-DE (56)

Senators:
Maria Cantwell-WA (58)
Bob Casey-PA (56)
Amy Klobuchar-MN (56)
Blanche Lincoln-AR (56)
Mark Begich-AK (54)
Mark Pryor-AR (54)

Granted age is not a be all, end all determining factor but the majority of our presidents have been elected in their 50s.  Including Obama, only 9 presidents have been elected before turning 50 and only 9 presidents have been elected after turning 60.  The remaining 21 elected presidents were elected between the ages of 50-59.

Median age is deceiving, especially because only one of the last 5 presidents (Bush) have fit that criteria. We have just happened to have old (Reagan) and quite young (Obama, Clinton). When you average old and young you get a median that's neither of those (it is 56 for the last 5 presidents).

Because of increasing life expectancy and changing times (i.e. the young, inspirational guy) it is actually more likely for someone to be elected before or after their 50's.

Probably true, especially the part about longer lifespans.  But I don't think we can completely ignore the fact that the group of candidates listed in the poll are almost all from the older end of the spectrum and its highly unlikely that all of the candidates will be from that demographic.  A more realistic poll would have a better mix of ages instead of including people like Caroline Kennedy and making assumptions about a candidate's electoral future.

[Purple State]

None of these candidates fit the proper age demographic.  Both the median and mean age of the last 8 elected presidents is 55.  Caroline Kennedy would be the closest candidate to that age in 2016 and she's probably the least likely one of these people to run.  With the exception of Sandlin, the rest of these people will be approaching or past 65 in 2016, plus Biden and Perdue will both be over 70.  Here's a list of current Democratic Senators and Governors who will be in their 50s on inauguration day in 2017:

Governors:
Chet Culver-IA (50)
Martin O'Malley-MD (53)
Jennifer Granholm-MI (57)
Brad Henry-OK (53)
Tim Kaine-VA (58)
Jack Markell-DE (56)

Senators:
Maria Cantwell-WA (58)
Bob Casey-PA (56)
Amy Klobuchar-MN (56)
Blanche Lincoln-AR (56)
Mark Begich-AK (54)
Mark Pryor-AR (54)

Granted age is not a be all, end all determining factor but the majority of our presidents have been elected in their 50s.  Including Obama, only 9 presidents have been elected before turning 50 and only 9 presidents have been elected after turning 60.  The remaining 21 elected presidents were elected between the ages of 50-59.

Median age is deceiving, especially because only one of the last 5 presidents (Bush) have fit that criteria. We have just happened to have old (Reagan) and quite young (Obama, Clinton). When you average old and young you get a median that's neither of those (it is 56 for the last 5 presidents).

Because of increasing life expectancy and changing times (i.e. the young, inspirational guy) it is actually more likely for someone to be elected before or after their 50's.

Probably true, especially the part about longer lifespans.  But I don't think we can completely ignore the fact that the group of candidates listed in the poll are almost all from the older end of the spectrum and its highly unlikely that all of the candidates will be from that demographic.  A more realistic poll would have a better mix of ages instead of including people like Caroline Kennedy and making assumptions about a candidate's electoral future.

Surely true. If Obama's election is any indicator, the 2016 candidate may be as far back as a State Senate seat. However, as it goes with party legacies, it is unlikely that the heir-to-the-throne of the Democrats after Obama (assuming two terms) will be a young flash in the pan. It would most likely be someone who had been very political around this time and who was involved in the Obama administration. If the last few cycles are any indicator.

[cinyc]

Other (Alexi Giannoulias, assuming he can obtain higher office)

...and he doesn't end up in jail due to Rezko's ties to Broadway Bank.

[Lunar]

Other (Alexi Giannoulias, assuming he can obtain higher office)

...and he doesn't end up in jail due to Rezko's ties to Broadway Bank.

Is that a possibility?  I hadn't heard of that, I assumed he was more or less clean since the Democratic Party in Illinois opposed him, and Obama's faction, the most clean faction of Democrats in Illinois [it's all relative] supported him.

[Lunar]

Honestly, I'd support your governor, Paterson, in 2016 over everyone else, mostly for his sense of humor and economic moderatism (although his latest taxes show a strangely abnormal amount of political ignorance for a politician).

The "Once you go black, you don't go back" comment he made about himself running in 2016 won me over, even if it was in jest, simply for its brilliance and its balls

[cinyc]

Other (Alexi Giannoulias, assuming he can obtain higher office)

...and he doesn't end up in jail due to Rezko's ties to Broadway Bank.

Is that a possibility?  I hadn't heard of that, I assumed he was more or less clean since the Democratic Party in Illinois opposed him, and Obama's faction, the most clean faction of Democrats in Illinois [it's all relative] supported him.

During the campaign, some of the Hillary Clinton-supporting websites were claiming that Rezko was about to rat out Alexi (who was a VP at Rezko's main bank, Broadway Bank, which I think also gave Barack Obama his home loan).  This was in part based on a blind item in Michael Sneed's Chicago Sun-Times column.

What Rezko was supposed to rat out the bank about is unclear, and it hasn't happen thus far.  But who knows?  It's Chicago, which gives New Jersey a run for its money in dirty politics.

[Lunar]

Other (Alexi Giannoulias, assuming he can obtain higher office)

...and he doesn't end up in jail due to Rezko's ties to Broadway Bank.

Is that a possibility?  I hadn't heard of that, I assumed he was more or less clean since the Democratic Party in Illinois opposed him, and Obama's faction, the most clean faction of Democrats in Illinois [it's all relative] supported him.

During the campaign, some of the Hillary Clinton-supporting websites were claiming that Rezko was about to rat out Alexi (who was a VP at Rezko's main bank, Broadway Bank, which I think also gave Barack Obama his home loan).  This was in part based on a blind item in Michael Sneed's Chicago Sun-Times column.

What Rezko was supposed to rat out the bank about is unclear, and it hasn't happen thus far.  But who knows?  It's Chicago, which gives New Jersey a run for its money in dirty politics.

Since when has Sneed been anything but Blago's blog?

http://gawker.com/5105531/chicago-columnist-outed-as-blagos-favorite-patsy

[Lunar]

Actually, anyone Sneed posts "sourced" articles against are probably the cleanest people in Chicago

[TomC]

Schweitzer, Sandlin, and Biden got my votes. I also like Rahm Emmanuel and Blanche Lincoln. Kennedy, too. Anyone who writes a book about protecting the Bill of Rights is a FF in my book. I'm kind of over Warner.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I'm kind of over Warner.

[anvi]

It may well be someone who  isn't on the charts right now.  I think that Obama is going to govern as a centrist Democrat, so assuming he gets a second term, the 2016 primaries will feature an argument between Obama-style centrists and candidates from farther left.  In terms of specific candidates, I think Tim Kaine is pretty appealing across broad cross-ections of voters, and I think he would be a good representative of the Obama-centrist model, while Russ Feingold is also an appealing clean government lefty who would represent the most significant challenge.  In the end, they might make a good ticket together.  But, like I say, these two are good representatives of the fight that will take place in the Democratic party in '16 if Obama gets reelected, and there are other candidates that could easily take up those banners.