I've come a bit of a cropper I think
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  I've come a bit of a cropper I think		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: I've come a bit of a cropper I think  (Read 1379 times)
Harry Hayfield
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« on: January 21, 2009, 07:36:37 PM »
I was having a look at the 2008 elections for Congress as a first stab of estimating 2010 and felt that the best thing to do was to find the average change in the Mid Term Elections after a Democrat gained the presidency from a retiring Republican. And promptly came a cropper

2008: Obama gains the presidency after Bush retires
1960: Kennedy gains the presidency after Eisenhower retires

In other words, can we make a comparsion between Mid Terms 1962 and Mid Terms 2010?
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Verily
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« Reply #1 on: January 21, 2009, 08:15:18 PM »
« Edited: January 21, 2009, 08:19:27 PM by Verily »
No. The structure of the parties was completely different at the time. And the Democrats lost a bunch of seats in 1960, anyway, while the Democrats gained a bunch of seats in 2008.
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Meeker
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« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2009, 05:54:57 AM »
^^^ There are several reasons why these aren't really valid comparisons.

Seats are also better gerrymandered these days.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #3 on: January 22, 2009, 06:00:31 AM »
     Also, Obama's win was much more decisive than Kennedy's. Especially in terms of the popular vote.
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RosettaStoned
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« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2009, 05:24:37 PM »
No comparison.
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