could Peter King beat Kirsten Gillibrand?

[© Tweed the Younger]

I've been thinking about this for a good five minutes now and, although unlikely, it may be the only chance Republicans have of winning an NY Senate seat in 2010...

King might be able to successfully eat at the fringes of the suburban/urban greater NYC Dem voting bloc as Gillibrand is an upstater and he's from Nassau.  one interesting thing I found: he's had a relatively pro-gun control record (which is unsurprising, as his neighbor is Carolyn McCarthy and LI is the capitol of gun paranoia) and received a 'D' rating from the NRA in 2003.  Gillibrand has, of course, had the little tempest-in-a-teapot thing with her high NRA rating getting some play recently.

not that I think guns will be a big issue in 2010, but that isn't really the point.  King may be able to carry Nassau and Suffolk by decent margins and eat at Queens/Westchester as well because he has more of a cultural pull there than does Gillibrand.

it would take a perfect storm of sorts, but step one of 9000 is the selection of Kirsten Gillibrand

[Lunar]

I think Gillibrand has a FAR better chance of being beaten from the left than from the right, since she's basically a centrist

MAYBE

[© Tweed the Younger]

King wouldn't have to beat her from the right.  he could beat her by being a real New Yorker downstate Irish Catholic who can beat the sh**t out of people.  although I do agree she would be susceptible to a primary challenge.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

No, not unless the national mood wills it, which seems unlikely.

[Ogre Mage]

Peter King has a huge hurdle to overcome in a NY statewide race -- his far-right anti-reproductive rights stance.

http://www.votesmart.org/issue_rating_category.php?can_id=26968

http://www.ontheissues.org/NY/Peter_King_Abortion.htm

A staunch anti-choice man running against a pro-choice woman is a terrible frame for King in a statewide NY Senate race.  Maloney would be best positioned to smackdown King on this issue given her long record on women's rights, but Gillibrand or Kennedy could take advantage also.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Well he'd have to run about 13 points ahead of McCain to do so, and Gillibrand would get a large boost upstate, so he'd have to do more than just carry Long Island. The main thing being that regional voting is much bigger upstate, as NYC doesn't seem to care about regionalism, after all they elected Hillary Clinton who didn't have anything to do with the state at all. Yet we all know how upstate feels toward NYC.

[Verily]

No. The problem for King is that he'd have to choose between running a New York City campaign or an upstate campaign. Upstate conservatives are not going to vote for some random guy from Long Island just because he has an 'R' next to his name. They've proven themselves perfectly willing to vote for Democrats, solidly, in the past. King would need to appeal to them, too. But appealing to suburban NYC and upstate at the same time is basically impossible when one candidate is suburban and the other upstate.

In King v Gillibrand, King would almost certainly win Nassau and Suffolk Counties, probably Rockland and maybe even Westchester. But Gillibrand would clean up upstate, with numbers that looked like Clinton's 2006 win in most of the upstate counties. And King, much though he might try to appeal to NYC proper, couldn't do much better than generic Republican in the city itself.

King's ceiling against Gillibrand is still about 45%, it's just distributed differently than the 45% he could get against someone else.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Basically what I said, but put more into detail.

To further add though:



This map is still a 12-point Dem victory despite a solid GOP victory on Long Island. Now imagine how much upstate is going to swing as well.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Gillibrand carries Ulster and Dutchess. I'd bet my hat on that.


I don't really have a hat though.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Well Gillibrand would obviously not run behind Obama anywhere upstate and Obama took those...

[Smash255]

Honestly have no clue how King got that D rating from the NRA back in 03, he has a very anti-gun control voting record.    I don't think King would win LI against Gillebrand, his stances would really hurt him once he gets out of his carved out district.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The answer is no. But if Carolyn McCArthy challenges Gillibrand in a primary and somehow McCarthy wins, King could beat McCarthy more than he could beat Gillibrand.

[Vasall des Midas]

Well Gillibrand would obviously not run behind Obama anywhere upstate

Uh, why not? McCain got licked upstate. (Unlike Bush who did very respectably there especially in 2004.)

Mind you, doesn't change the basic point - while you should never say never, it would take very special circumstances for Peter King to beat any white Democrat under 80 and to the right of Kucinich.

[Lunar]

If some inner-city minority won a bloody primary, that would be King's best chance.

[Mr.Phips]

No.  Democrats didnt give up a House seat to lose a Senate seat.