could Peter King beat Kirsten Gillibrand?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well he'd have to run about 13 points ahead of McCain to do so, and Gillibrand would get a large boost upstate, so he'd have to do more than just carry Long Island. The main thing being that regional voting is much bigger upstate, as NYC doesn't seem to care about regionalism, after all they elected Hillary Clinton who didn't have anything to do with the state at all. Yet we all know how upstate feels toward NYC.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Basically what I said, but put more into detail.

To further add though:



This map is still a 12-point Dem victory despite a solid GOP victory on Long Island. Now imagine how much upstate is going to swing as well.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well Gillibrand would obviously not run behind Obama anywhere upstate and Obama took those...