Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
Posts: 16,663
Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
|
 |
« on: January 22, 2009, 11:18:40 AM » |
|
|
« edited: January 22, 2009, 11:20:21 AM by Verily »
|
No. The problem for King is that he'd have to choose between running a New York City campaign or an upstate campaign. Upstate conservatives are not going to vote for some random guy from Long Island just because he has an 'R' next to his name. They've proven themselves perfectly willing to vote for Democrats, solidly, in the past. King would need to appeal to them, too. But appealing to suburban NYC and upstate at the same time is basically impossible when one candidate is suburban and the other upstate.
In King v Gillibrand, King would almost certainly win Nassau and Suffolk Counties, probably Rockland and maybe even Westchester. But Gillibrand would clean up upstate, with numbers that looked like Clinton's 2006 win in most of the upstate counties. And King, much though he might try to appeal to NYC proper, couldn't do much better than generic Republican in the city itself.
King's ceiling against Gillibrand is still about 45%, it's just distributed differently than the 45% he could get against someone else.
|
