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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 600313 times)
afleitch
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« Reply #10250 on: October 09, 2012, 12:10:27 pm »
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Quote from: J. J. on October 09, 2012, 12:06:37 pm
The bounce does not appear to be ephemeral.  

That cannot be determined as Gallup is still using a 7 day tracker for some strange reason.
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« Reply #10251 on: October 09, 2012, 12:12:41 pm »
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Quote from: afleitch on October 09, 2012, 12:10:27 pm
Quote from: J. J. on October 09, 2012, 12:06:37 pm
The bounce does not appear to be ephemeral.  

That cannot be determined as Gallup is still using a 7 day tracker for some strange reason.

Oct 2-8, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

It should be noted that there are still two days in it that were pre debate.
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J. J.

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The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

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afleitch
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« Reply #10252 on: October 09, 2012, 12:15:09 pm »
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Quote from: J. J. on October 09, 2012, 12:12:41 pm
Quote from: afleitch on October 09, 2012, 12:10:27 pm
Quote from: J. J. on October 09, 2012, 12:06:37 pm
The bounce does not appear to be ephemeral.  

That cannot be determined as Gallup is still using a 7 day tracker for some strange reason.

Oct 2-8, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

It should be noted that there are still two days in it that were pre debate.

Exactly. And days immediately post debate. Therefore you can't judge the bounce.
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King
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« Reply #10253 on: October 09, 2012, 12:32:47 pm »
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Obama just needs to drive up turnout and he wins.  Of course, we all knew this long before the first debate.
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J. J.
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« Reply #10254 on: October 09, 2012, 03:33:02 pm »
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Quote from: afleitch on October 09, 2012, 12:15:09 pm
Quote from: J. J. on October 09, 2012, 12:12:41 pm
Quote from: afleitch on October 09, 2012, 12:10:27 pm
Quote from: J. J. on October 09, 2012, 12:06:37 pm
The bounce does not appear to be ephemeral.  

That cannot be determined as Gallup is still using a 7 day tracker for some strange reason.

Oct 2-8, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

It should be noted that there are still two days in it that were pre debate.

Exactly. And days immediately post debate. Therefore you can't judge the bounce.

Well, what has happened after the bounce has not driven it down (if it was a single day bounce).
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Governor Scott
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« Reply #10255 on: October 09, 2012, 03:44:50 pm »
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How can the race be so tight if these numbers are accurate?
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J. J.
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« Reply #10256 on: October 09, 2012, 03:51:50 pm »
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Quote from: Senator Scott on October 09, 2012, 03:44:50 pm
How can the race be so tight if these numbers are accurate?

The only number sticking out is Gallup's approval numbers.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Secretary Polnut
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« Reply #10257 on: October 09, 2012, 07:40:37 pm »
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Well technically 'ephemeral' doesn't mean just one day... it means a short period of time... or probably 'transitory' is a better description...

But that's by the by...
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J. J.
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« Reply #10258 on: October 09, 2012, 08:21:08 pm »
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Quote from: Former President Polnut on October 09, 2012, 07:40:37 pm
Well technically 'ephemeral' doesn't mean just one day... it means a short period of time... or probably 'transitory' is a better description...

But that's by the by...

"Transitory" implies a transition, or at least can be readily confused with that.  "Ephemeral" implies a temporary condition that will revert back to the status quo in a short period of time.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Secretary Polnut
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« Reply #10259 on: October 09, 2012, 08:25:46 pm »
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Quote from: J. J. on October 09, 2012, 08:21:08 pm
Quote from: Former President Polnut on October 09, 2012, 07:40:37 pm
Well technically 'ephemeral' doesn't mean just one day... it means a short period of time... or probably 'transitory' is a better description...

But that's by the by...

"Transitory" implies a transition, or at least can be readily confused with that.  "Ephemeral" implies a temporary condition that will revert back to the status quo in a short period of time.

Which, depending on who you listen to, this MIGHT have been... but I doubt we'll know until the weekend. The blessings of multi-day polls...
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« Reply #10260 on: October 09, 2012, 08:28:33 pm »
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Quote from: Former President Polnut on October 09, 2012, 08:25:46 pm
Quote from: J. J. on October 09, 2012, 08:21:08 pm
Quote from: Former President Polnut on October 09, 2012, 07:40:37 pm
Well technically 'ephemeral' doesn't mean just one day... it means a short period of time... or probably 'transitory' is a better description...

But that's by the by...

"Transitory" implies a transition, or at least can be readily confused with that.  "Ephemeral" implies a temporary condition that will revert back to the status quo in a short period of time.

Which, depending on who you listen to, this MIGHT have been... but I doubt we'll know until the weekend. The blessings of multi-day polls...

The initial polling look like a swing, as opposed to an ephemeral bounce, but we won't know until the weekend.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
J. J.
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« Reply #10261 on: October 10, 2012, 08:50:13 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, u.

Disapprove 50%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 34%, +4.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  43%, u.

Head to head is at 48/47 Romney(u)/Obama (-1).

The Strongly Approve numbers are up for both candidates, dramatically.  This is either a bad sample or an increase in enthusiasm. 
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Northeast Rep Snowball
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« Reply #10262 on: October 10, 2012, 11:46:26 am »
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its probably sampling
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Yank2133
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« Reply #10263 on: October 10, 2012, 12:02:34 pm »
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Gallup

Approval-53(NC)
Disapproval-42(NC)
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J. J.
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« Reply #10264 on: October 10, 2012, 12:56:14 pm »
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Quote from: Snowball on October 10, 2012, 11:46:26 am
its probably sampling

No, it matches Gallup's tracking closely.

The only strange number is Gallup approval.  Gallup tracking is 48/48.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #10265 on: October 10, 2012, 08:55:48 pm »
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Don't get too excited over Gallups approval.  It's highly suspect due to increased non white voter percent.  A 6.6% increase over the record 2008 level (and 4.9% jump week-over-week).   So if you belive that'll happen this election by all means enjoy Gallup's poll.  

End of september the % of non white vote was 25.7% in Gallup's poll and in September overall had averaged right around 27%.  October they jumped it up to 30.6%.


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J. J.
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« Reply #10266 on: October 11, 2012, 08:44:27 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 51%, +2.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, -4.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  41%, -2.

Head to head is at 48/47  Obama (+1)/Romney (-1).


« Last Edit: October 12, 2012, 08:41:38 am by J. J. »Logged
J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
J. J.
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« Reply #10267 on: October 11, 2012, 12:28:10 pm »
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Gallup

Approve 52% (-1)
Disapprove 43% (+1)


Head to Head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  48 (u)

Obama:  47 (-1)

Obama leads 48/46 on Registered Voters.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #10268 on: October 11, 2012, 07:59:16 pm »
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So, Obama is above 50% in approval ratings and has the highest approval he's had in years and he's getting his ass kicked by Romney in the head-to-head match ups as well as collapsing in the swing states? WTF?
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« Reply #10269 on: October 11, 2012, 08:36:11 pm »
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Quote from: Mister Twister on October 11, 2012, 07:59:16 pm
So, Obama is above 50% in approval ratings and has the highest approval he's had in years and he's getting his ass kicked by Romney in the head-to-head match ups as well as collapsing in the swing states? WTF?

Imagine if the GOP candidate was actually one of the good ones who didn't run!
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kingthlayer
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« Reply #10270 on: October 12, 2012, 02:32:21 am »
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Quote from: Mister Twister on October 11, 2012, 07:59:16 pm
So, Obama is above 50% in approval ratings and has the highest approval he's had in years and he's getting his ass kicked by Romney in the head-to-head match ups as well as collapsing in the swing states? WTF?

Dude he's down by 1, within the margin of error, in the likely voter polls, and ahead by 2 in the registered voter polls, all the while holding 6-7 point leads in swing sates, depending on your pollster of choice.
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Quote from: Senator Berkley on November 08, 2012, 06:22:08 pm
It makes me happy Republicans will never be able to say they defeated Obama. Never ever.
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« Reply #10271 on: October 12, 2012, 08:42:48 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, -1.

Disapprove 49%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  41%, .

Head to head is at 48/47  Romney (u)/Obama (u).


« Last Edit: October 12, 2012, 02:36:03 pm by J. J. »Logged
J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #10272 on: October 12, 2012, 11:50:32 am »
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It's an enthusiasm gap that is being reflected in likely voter screens. 
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« Reply #10273 on: October 12, 2012, 11:57:43 am »
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Quote from: J. J. on October 12, 2012, 08:42:48 am

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, -1.

Disapprove 49%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  41%, .

Head to head is at 48/47  Obama (u)/Romney (u).




Head to head is Obama at 47 (-1) and Romney at 48 (+1)
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
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« Reply #10274 on: October 12, 2012, 12:00:03 pm »
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Rand poll:

O: 48,17
R: 46,15
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
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