The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

It's about time somebody cut a map based on the random states provided in this thread so far:

New Hampshire now accounted for, with a very dark green shade.

Biggest ones left: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado.   

[Tender Branson]

Latest Rhode Island poll by Brown University:

How would you rate the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

Excellent/Good: 62.4%
Fair/Poor: 16.5%
Don’t know/No answer: 21.1%

The survey was conducted Feb. 7-10, 2009, at Brown University by Marion Orr, the Fred Lippitt Professor of Public Policy and Political Science and director of the Taubman Center for Public Policy and the John Hazen White Public Opinion Laboratory. It is based on a statewide random sample of 451 registered voters in Rhode Island. Overall, the poll had a margin of error of about plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

http://news.brown.edu/pressreleases/2009/02/survey

[Tender Branson]

Biggest ones left: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado.   

Maybe sooner or later we'll get a Georgia poll by Strategic Vision and an Arizona poll by BRC or KAET, but I think it's unlikely that we'll see a poll from the other states, allthough there's a slight chance that Selzer may poll Michigan for the Detroit Free Press.

[pbrower2a]

Biggest ones left: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado.   

Maybe sooner or later we'll get a Georgia poll by Strategic Vision and an Arizona poll by BRC or KAET, but I think it's unlikely that we'll see a poll from the other states, allthough there's a slight chance that Selzer may poll Michigan for the Detroit Free Press.

Selzer is really good; it got Indiana and Missouri right in 2008. Strategic Vision has a GOP bias, so I would have to give it a grain of salt as I gave PPP with its Democratic bias... 

Heck, Montana would be interesting because it was a swing state.

It might be hard to see, but we get to add Rhode Island:

[Tender Branson]

Biggest ones left: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado.   

Maybe sooner or later we'll get a Georgia poll by Strategic Vision and an Arizona poll by BRC or KAET, but I think it's unlikely that we'll see a poll from the other states, allthough there's a slight chance that Selzer may poll Michigan for the Detroit Free Press.

Selzer is really good; it got Indiana and Missouri right in 2008. Strategic Vision has a GOP bias, so I would have to give it a grain of salt as I gave PPP with its Democratic bias... 

Heck, Montana would be interesting because it was a swing state.

Selzer is generally good, but overestimated Obama in IA. SV tends to overestimate Republicans early in the year (just like Rasmussen), but ends up producing good polls just before the election. They just got FL wrong last year. PPP was also rather good, underestimated Obama in Nevada and got MT wrong.

[Tender Branson]

Update:

Rasmussen: 60% Approve, 39% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

Gallup: 62% Approve, 25% Disapprove

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics: 60% Approve, 26% Disapprove

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/021909_FNCPoll.pdf

ARG: 60% Approve, 33% Disapprove

http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

AP-GfK: 67% Approve, 24% Disapprove

http://surveys.ap.org/data%5CGfK%5CAP-GfK%20Poll%20Topline%20021809.pdf

.....

New York (Quinnipiac):

72% Approve, 17% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1267

Florida (Quinnipiac):

64% Approve, 23% Disapprove
69% Favorable, 22% Unfavorable

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1266

North Carolina (PPP):

52% Approve, 41% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_218.pdf

[HockeyDude]

Update:

Rasmussen: 60% Approve, 39% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

Gallup: 62% Approve, 25% Disapprove

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics: 60% Approve, 26% Disapprove

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/021909_FNCPoll.pdf

ARG: 60% Approve, 33% Disapprove

http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

AP-GfK: 67% Approve, 24% Disapprove

http://surveys.ap.org/data%5CGfK%5CAP-GfK%20Poll%20Topline%20021809.pdf

.....

New York (Quinnipiac):

72% Approve, 17% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1267

Florida (Quinnipiac):

64% Approve, 23% Disapprove
69% Favorable, 22% Unfavorable

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1266

North Carolina (PPP):

52% Approve, 41% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_218.pdf

NC can't be right. 

[Democratic Hawk]

Update:

North Carolina (PPP):

52% Approve, 41% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_218.pdf

NC can't be right. 

Well, according to PPP, only 50% of 18-to-29-year-olds approve of Obama, while 46% disapprove; and this was the only age demographic he carried in November by a thumping 76-24 against McCain, according to exits

He has a net approval rating of 19% (56-37) among the 35-45s, which he lost 48-52; +12 (53-41) among the 46-65s, which he lost 43-56; and +4 (46-42) among the 65+, which he lost 43-56

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Pew Research [February 18, 2009]

Approve 64%; Disapprove 17%

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1125/terrorism-guantanamo-torture-polling

[Senator Ben]

North Carolina must be off.  PPP probably flipped some numbers around.

[Tender Branson]

Michigan (Rasmussen - Feb. 18 - 500 LV):

68% Approve
32% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/michigan/toplines/toplines_michigan_february_18_2009

[pbrower2a]

Biggest ones left: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Indiana, Maryland, and Colorado.   

Maybe sooner or later we'll get a Georgia poll by Strategic Vision and an Arizona poll by BRC or KAET, but I think it's unlikely that we'll see a poll from the other states, allthough there's a slight chance that Selzer may poll Michigan for the Detroit Free Press.

Selzer is really good; it got Indiana and Missouri right in 2008. Strategic Vision has a GOP bias, so I would have to give it a grain of salt as I gave PPP with its Democratic bias... 

Heck, Montana would be interesting because it was a swing state.

It might be hard to see, but we get to add Rhode Island:

... and now Michigan, until now the most populous state for which an approval rating wasn't yet posted. Georgia might be equal in electoral votes in 2012, though, as people who have a chance to leave "Michigrim" get to do so.

The Quinnipiac polls put Florida in the 65-75 range, so I make a revision. (I am not making an upgrade for a DailyKos rating for Washington state because DailyKos has an overwhelming left-wing slant).

It looks as the GOP has its work cut out for itself if it is to achieve anything in the 2012 election. Note that Obama barely won Florida, and his approval rating in Florida approaches 70%.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Washington numbers (R2000 for DailyKos, Feb. 16-18, 600 LV):

66% favorable
21% unfavorable

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/2/18/WA/209

[President Marokai]

You'd think people would be polling Indiana by now.

[Lief]

R2k/DailyKos released their weekly update today. They poll a lot of stuff, it's pretty interesting, you should check it out: http://www.dailykos.com/weeklytrends

Obama Approval:
Favorable: 69% (+1)
Unfavorable: 26% (+1)
Don't know: 5% (-2)

Pelosi is also the only Congressional leader with net favorables (43-39).

[Rowan]

R2k/DailyKos released their weekly update today. They poll a lot of stuff, it's pretty interesting, you should check it out: http://www.dailykos.com/weeklytrends

Obama Approval:
Favorable: 69% (+1)
Unfavorable: 26% (+1)
Don't know: 5% (-2)

Pelosi is also the only Congressional leader with net favorables (43-39).

Compare those Pelosi numbers to the ones produced by Rasmussen(35-58), and you obviously see that these polls for Kos have an overwhelming Democratic bias.

[Lief]

1) Favorable vs. Approval; it's different

2) Rasmussen seems to be an approval outlier, compared to nearly every other polling firm

[Rowan]

1) Favorable vs. Approval; it's different

2) Rasmussen seems to be an approval outlier, compared to nearly every other polling firm

Number 2 is pretty much false. They have Obama at 59% while FOX has him at 60% and Gallup at 63%. The ones in the upper 60's are the true outliers(CNN, KOS).

[Lief]

They've pretty consistently had his disapprovals about 10% higher than everyone else (except Insider Advantage and Zogby Internet): http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php

[Rowan]

They've pretty consistently had his disapprovals about 10% higher than everyone else (except Insider Advantage and Zogby Internet): http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php

Well they probably push people more. The others have high numbers of "not sure" which is not really believable that a person could not have an opinion about the President of the United States.

[Tender Branson]

Georgia (Rasmussen - Feb. 17 - 500 LV):

58% Approve
41% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/georgia/toplines/toplines_georgia_likely_voters_february_17_2009

[Tender Branson]

According to Rasmussen's Daily Tracking, Obama's national approval was 59%.

So, if 58% approve in Georgia (which was about -5 for Obama in the '08 election) and 68% in Michigan (which was about +5 for Obama), I think his national approval must be somewhere around 63%.

[Tender Branson]

New CNN poll:

67% Approve
29% Disapprove

[Lief]

They've pretty consistently had his disapprovals about 10% higher than everyone else (except Insider Advantage and Zogby Internet): http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php

Well they probably push people more. The others have high numbers of "not sure" which is not really believable that a person could not have an opinion about the President of the United States.

Well, whatever they're methodology, it's giving results far off from every other poll that isn't a joke. We should take Rasmussen polls with a grain of salt; they seem to have something of a "house effect", if I may borrow a Silverism.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Doesn't Rasmussen count "fair" as disapprove?

That makes a considerable difference and is annoying and inane.