The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[J. J.]

back to the gallup 31 pc rumor...I think the headlines of such a quick drop could cause social unrest in america, and not among obamas supporters, but simply because it would mean a quick and radical shift, showing people were losing faith in government...that is why I didn't think it was funny at all, in fact it would e very troubling 

They've run lower numbers for other presidents.

true, but that quick a drop, from 38 to 31, in this politcal climate could be a precursor to the riots Ron Paul predicted....which is what alarmed me - the only way Ron Paul gets elected is if there is mass chaos

also, if we are in a double dip come next summer and it is clear obama is going to lose, Rick Perry aint exactly a beacon of hope and we could see social unrest in the US

I don't think there ever was that cause and effect.  Unrest might cause a president's numbers to drop, but a president's dropping numbers don't cause unrest.

I think this was more of a sample that was clearly unreliable, because of problems acquiring the sample (and certainly not mirrored in other polls).

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42, -1.

Disapprove 57%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +1.

Obama has, generally, been in decline since the second or third week of July.  It does not look like he is improving and may be eroding slightly.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I don't think there ever was that cause and effect.  Unrest might cause a president's numbers to drop, but a president's dropping numbers don't cause unrest.

not the news itself, just the underlying current that would be behind such a quick drop in approval.  at this point in time (with really no major news story), a rapid mood swing reflected in such a quick drop would be very bad news for both parties and for the country in general.  it would be a sign that the cohesiveness that binds us together as Americans was coming unravelled.

needless to say, I was alarmed when I saw the quick drop to 31...made me want to go out and buy ammo and stock up on canned goods

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  39%, +1.

Disapprove:  54%, -1.


Any "hurricane damaged sample" should be out Friday.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43, +1.

Disapprove 56%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.

No Irene effect.

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43, +1.

Disapprove 56%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.

No Irene effect.

Just that no conclusions can be drawn, PPP will have Kentucky (safely out of the range of Irene), and South Carolina (slight if any effect from Irene). This weekend PPP will be doing West Virginia and North Carolina. I think that PPP would be unwise to poll North Carolina this weekend -- and not that I would prefer that it polled Florida or Missouri.

The President does not grandstand on natural disasters, but I figure that people still remember the tragedy and travesty of Katrina.

[Tender Branson]

Strong jump on the Gallup today:

42% Approve (+3)
50% Disapprove (-4)

[You kip if you want to...]

Strong jump on the Gallup today:

42% Approve (+3)
50% Disapprove (-4)

In before anyone says Irene.

[Tender Branson]

Quinnipiac had it 42-52 today (well, in the last 2 weeks).

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1640

[Tender Branson]

WV (West Virginia Chamber of Commerce/R.L. Repass & Partners):

24% Approve
64% Disapprove

R.L. Repass & Partners conducted the telephone poll for the Chamber in mid-August. It questioned 300 registered voters in West Virginia about where they stand on politics, the economy, sports, and other topics.

http://www.statejournal.com/story.cfm?func=viewstory&storyid=106674

"The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percent."

LOL, what ?

[CJK]

Obama average approval August 2011 (Gallup)

40% Approve

52% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Roosevelt: 48/43 (August 1939)

Truman: No poll (August 1947) AND 31/57 (August 1951)

Eisenhower: 74/14 (August 1955)

Kennedy: 63/26 (August 1963)

Johnson: 40/48 (August 1967)

Nixon: 49/39 (August 1971)

Ford: 46/37 (August 1975)

Carter: 32/54 (August 1979)

Reagan: 43/46 (August 1983)

Bush I: 71/21 (August 1991)

Clinton: 46/43 (August 1995)

Bush II: 60/37 (August 2003)

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  42%, +3.

Disapprove:  50%, -4.


Maybe a hurricane damaged sample dropping out.

[pbrower2a]

Prime example of the sort of poll that I consider suspect:

In addition, 64 percent of West Virginians say they disapprove of the job President Barack Obama is doing. Approximately 24 percent said they approved of the president’s job performance.

Reason:

The West Virginia Chamber of Commerce commissioned a poll to evaluate where Mountain State residents stand on many issues, including politics, court reform and redistricting. The first half of the poll was released at 10 a.m. Sept. 1 during the Chamber’s annual meeting and Business Summit at The Greenbrier. The second half of the poll will be released Sept. 2.

http://www.statejournal.com/story.cfm?func=viewstory&storyid=106674

A state Chamber of Commerce is about as likely to show no bias as a labor union is likely to show no bias.

The poll also asked residents where they stand on unions and whether they would support or oppose a law allowing a person to not join a union or pay union dues at their place of employment if there is a union presence there. According to the poll, 60 percent of people would support that law, 18 percent would oppose the law and a combined 22 percent said they were either unsure or neither supported or opposed the law.

Because evisceration of labor unions is one of the cornerstones of any pro-business group and West Virginia has a long heritage of strong union activity, I would consider that suspect.

PPP will poll the state this weekend, and I wouldn't be surprised if President Obama polls only in the 30s in the Mountaineer State, as he is a poor match for the culture of Appalachia. I am showing it because it shows what "suspect" looks like.






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest):

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    25
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 104
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 57
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    35
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 117
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  43
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 29
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  26
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 110
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 0
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania, Franklin&Marshall.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/images/video/2011_pdfs/0901gpPolls.pdf

It's an EGFP poll, and not an approval poll, so I won't show the EGFP results. Check the link if you are curious.

I can't copy the data directly, but in essence, the President out-polls all major Pennsylvania pols (including the Republican Governor and the split Senatorial delegation) President Obama fares better than any shown Republican challenger except Perry, who is not shown. I have no cause to believe  that Rick Perry would fare better than Romney or Bachmann in Pennsylvania.


Now, for one that nobody can argue with:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 41%
Disapprove...................................................... 56%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 44%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 44%
Undecided....................................................... 12%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 44%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 45%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 45%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 41%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 49%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 38%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 53%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/09/obama-lags-perry-by-8-romney-by-15-in-south-carolina.html#more

South Carolina is close to the national level for approval ratings... but the President would lose the state.







Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest):

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    25
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 104
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 48
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 41
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    35
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 117
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  63
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 9
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  26
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

[Ben Romney]

Obama at 38%

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/20110830econToplines.pdf

[Tender Branson]

FOX News:

44% Approve
47% Disapprove

http://www.foxnews.com/interactive/politics/2011/09/01/fox-news-poll-60-disapprove-president-obama-on-job-creation

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, +1.

Disapprove 55%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

[JulioMadrid]

Is Obama improving his numbers???

[J. J.]

Is Obama improving his numbers???

Not on Rasmussen.  He was actually a bit stronger at the start of the week.

On Gallup, he's off his lows but still within the MOE.  I'm paying particular attention to when he "troughs," i.e. hit his low point and starts recovering.  He might have, but the last time it looked like he "might" have, he fell back.

Yes, I'm expecting Obama to recover prior to the election.  His low numbers are survivable, though it is getting close to the point of no return.

[kingthlayer]

Well, today's horrible jobs report is probably going to increase worries of a double dip, which is going to keep him in the low 40s or high 30s for the foreseeable future.

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  42%, u.

Disapprove:  50%, u.

[pbrower2a]

Kentucky:

39% of voters approve and 56% disapprove of the president’s job performance, up from a 31-62 margin late last October.  That still makes it his seventh or eighth worst standing in any of the 45 states we've measured him in.  32% of the state’s conservative Democrats disapprove, to two-thirds approving; they make up 55% of voters.  Republicans almost unanimously disapprove, and independents fall at 31-66.

But even with this poor result for approval of the President, Barack Obama still is behind Romney by 8%, Perry by 7%, and Bachmann by 3%. I'm not going to even mention Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich, whose atrocious performances in a state that Dubya won by roughly 15% twice now suggests a travesty if included. President Obama will likely gain more than 6% from his approval rating, but even at that he would still lose the state by ione of the largest margins in America. The rules of my model suggest that Kentucky is out of reach for the President.







Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest):

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    25
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 104
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 48
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 41
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   26




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    35
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 117
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  63
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 9
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  26
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  26  

[The Vorlon]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  42%, u.

Disapprove:  50%, u.

WE have had Obama bounce around a fair bit in Gallup.

Can't quite tell it ifs really good samples now and then bouncing him up to 42% or very bad samples now and then dropping him into the thirties.

Think it's the latter actually, but no real way to tell.

Just about everybody says 40-45%, so unless the economy turns around he is in for a really tough race.

Corrected

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  42%, u.

Disapprove:  50%, u.

WE have had Obama bounce around a fair bit in Gallup.

Can't quite tell it ifs really good samples now and then bouncing him up to 42% or very bad samples now and then dropping him into the thirties.

Think it's the latter actually, but no real way to tell.

Just about everybody says 40-45%, so unless the economy turns around he is in for a really tough race.

Corrected
[/quote]

Got it.  But there was no change.  It is the same from yesterday.  The movement was only about 4 points over 3-4 days, off a low.

[Mr.Phips]

Is Obama improving his numbers???

Not on Rasmussen.  He was actually a bit stronger at the start of the week.

On Gallup, he's off his lows but still within the MOE.  I'm paying particular attention to when he "troughs," i.e. hit his low point and starts recovering.  He might have, but the last time it looked like he "might" have, he fell back.

Yes, I'm expecting Obama to recover prior to the election.  His low numbers are survivable, though it is getting close to the point of no return.

He's going to need to get back to at least 48% by next fall if he is going to win reelection.