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| | |-+  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 643978 times)
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8775 on: September 05, 2011, 07:14:59 pm »
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A realistic Obama Morning in America 2.0 ceiling:

*6.9% Unemployment on Election Day, >3.0 million new jobs created July-September 2012*



Obama/Biden 453 EV/ 58.8% PV
Perry/Christie  85 EV/ 40.6% PV

6.9% unemployment in October 2012 is not realistic.  You would need about 450,000 jobs created per month over the next year and GDP growth near 10% every quarter through the third of 2012.

I should have said 7.1%.  I'm looking for the outer positive edge of realistic, just like 12.1% would be the outer negative edge of realistic.  In 1983-84 there were several months of ~700K job growth and the labor force is about 1/3rd larger today than it was then.  Several months of 7 figure job growth should be possible in a 1935 or 1984 paced recovery with today's population.   
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8776 on: September 05, 2011, 07:33:19 pm »
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Here's what I think is the most likely outcome as of now:

"A burst of 350k job growth during spring-summer 2012 and not having to run against Romney saved my presidency."



Obama/Biden 300 EV/ 50.4% PV
Perry/Christie  238 EV/ 48.7% PV

Election Day Unemployment: 8.5%
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« Reply #8777 on: September 05, 2011, 08:58:18 pm »
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Here's what I think is the most likely outcome as of now:

"A burst of 350k job growth during spring-summer 2012 and not having to run against Romney saved my presidency."



Obama/Biden 300 EV/ 50.4% PV
Perry/Christie  238 EV/ 48.7% PV

Election Day Unemployment: 8.5%
Do you really think that Ohio will flip before North Carolina?  And there is no way Christie will run as Perry's Veep.  He wants two terms as Governor of New Jersey so that he can run in 2016.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8778 on: September 05, 2011, 11:23:55 pm »
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Here's what I think is the most likely outcome as of now:

"A burst of 350k job growth during spring-summer 2012 and not having to run against Romney saved my presidency."



Obama/Biden 300 EV/ 50.4% PV
Perry/Christie  238 EV/ 48.7% PV

Election Day Unemployment: 8.5%
Do you really think that Ohio will flip before North Carolina?  And there is no way Christie will run as Perry's Veep.  He wants two terms as Governor of New Jersey so that he can run in 2016.

I think FL and NC are the easiest Obama holds beyond the VA-CO-NV election deciding tier, so yes.  OH demographically is rapidly moving right and NC is moving exponentially left while FL is a quite stable tilt R.  Charlotte and RDU get large enough to outvote the rest of the state by 2020, and when that happens, NC turns into MD south. Unless the election somehow becomes a referendum on labor unions, I can't see OH voting left of NC and FL.  Also, don't forget about the D convention in Charlotte.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8779 on: September 06, 2011, 01:43:52 am »
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Politico/Battleground poll:

45% Approve
50% Disapprove

49% Favorable
46% Unfavorable

Whether you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President, what is your impression of Barack Obama as a person? Do you approve or disapprove of him?

74% Approve
18% Disapprove

The POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted between Aug. 28 and Sept. 1 by The Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners. The nationwide telephone survey had margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM170_090611_battlegroundpoll_results.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8780 on: September 06, 2011, 01:47:48 am »
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Washington Post poll:

43% Approve
53% Disapprove

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone August 29-September 1 2011, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults, including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_090111.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8781 on: September 06, 2011, 07:45:25 am »
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NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey:

44% Approve
51% Disapprove

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/Correct_NBCWSJ_poll.pdf

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J. J.
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« Reply #8782 on: September 06, 2011, 08:42:55 am »
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Bloody close.  Smiley

A few things have to happen first.
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J. J.

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« Reply #8783 on: September 06, 2011, 08:50:17 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43, -1.

Disapprove 55%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.

We'll see if the strongly approve numbers are actual movement or a bad sample.
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J. J.

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« Reply #8784 on: September 06, 2011, 09:00:04 am »
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You aren't giving Obama enough credit.  Even in 1932, Hoover won 6 states and narrowly lost another 2.  In say a 12% unemployment scenario, the election would surely be lost, but Obama would still win at least 10-15 states in a 2 way election.  The 60% Obama 2008 states aren't flipping barring 25% local unemployment. 



Well, I'm giving Obama 7 states, plus DC and more EV than either Hoover or Carter. 

I certainly didn't expect Carter to lose NY in 1980, nor MA.  I would not have predicted either in 1979 and I still listed him as carrying both in the fall of 1980.
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J. J.

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« Reply #8785 on: September 06, 2011, 10:07:23 am »
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This is my "The economy has improved, unemployment drops to 8%, the R nominee is Perry/-not Rubio/-Romney, and we're not in a realignment" map:

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J. J.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8786 on: September 06, 2011, 10:12:46 am »
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This is my "The economy has improved, unemployment drops to 8%, the R nominee is Perry/-not Rubio/-Romney, and we're not in a realignment" map:



New Hampshire doesn't vote for a reactionary like Perry.

And why do you refuse to color North Carolina and Florida as battleground states ?

North Carolina isn't what it once was and FL is for sure a battleground state.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8787 on: September 06, 2011, 11:01:48 am »
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This is my "The economy has improved, unemployment drops to 8%, the R nominee is Perry/-not Rubio/-Romney, and we're not in a realignment" map:



That's way too optimistic for Perry.  That looks like a Romney vs. Obama map with status quo 2011 economic conditions (i.e. a narrow Romney win).  The toss up states should be shifted one tier to the right with a year of solid jobs growth (or one tier to the left with further job losses).  Perry doesn't play well in IA/CO/NV and he would struggle to avoid being blown out 2:1 in NOVA.

Here's Obama vs. Perry with modest economic improvement:






     
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President von Cat
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« Reply #8788 on: September 06, 2011, 12:10:11 pm »
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JJ, I'm not trying to steal your thunder here:

Gallup, eh?

Approval: 43%, +1
Disapproval: 50%, u

Okay, this is starting to seem counter-intuitive. Economy creates no new jobs, stock market tanks yet disapproval declines and approval rises. Perhaps we are reverting back to where we were pre-debt ceiling crisis, as liberals "get over it" and move back to Obama? Or perhaps we're seeing a pro-recession sample of Tea Partiers who are loving that his chances of re-election are on the decline? Tongue
« Last Edit: September 06, 2011, 04:01:02 pm by bryan »Logged


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« Reply #8789 on: September 06, 2011, 01:06:52 pm »
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This is my "The economy has improved, unemployment drops to 8%, the R nominee is Perry/-not Rubio/-Romney, and we're not in a realignment" map:



Recent polls in Texas show that Rick Perry is doing badly among Hispanics (largely Mexican-Americans)  in Texas -- so why should he do better with Mexican-Americans in Colorado or Nevada (or for that matter, Arizona) or with other Hispanics in Florida?

Iowa and New Hampshire are not going to vote for a reactionary who wears Protestant fundamentalism on his sleeve. Virginia may be happy with a Republican Governor who acts as a moderate... but that is not to say that a Hard Right candidate has much of a chance there. The Democrats are going to take Pennsylvania off the table with a strong GOTV campaign that gets out every D-leaning voter in greater Philly and Pittsburgh.

Ohio is Obama territory if he is able to please the auto industry and the UAW... and Indiana goes into question at that point. North Carolina has consistently shown itself a swing state since 2008. Even NE-02 depends upon how the Nebraska state legislature reconfigures the district.



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J. J.
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« Reply #8790 on: September 06, 2011, 01:52:44 pm »
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http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  43%, +1.

Disapprove:  50%, u.

We might be seeing von Kluck's turn.
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J. J.

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« Reply #8791 on: September 06, 2011, 01:56:59 pm »
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This is my "The economy has improved, unemployment drops to 8%, the R nominee is Perry/-not Rubio/-Romney, and we're not in a realignment" map:



New Hampshire doesn't vote for a reactionary like Perry.

And why do you refuse to color North Carolina and Florida as battleground states ?

North Carolina isn't what it once was and FL is for sure a battleground state.

NH has a strong libertarian streak and Perry is more likely to appeal to that. Both NC and FL were barely carried by Obama in a year very favorable to him.  I doubt that 2012 will be that favorable.
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J. J.

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The Vorlon
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« Reply #8792 on: September 06, 2011, 02:01:28 pm »
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Quote from: Tender Branson link=topic=91754.msg3013379#msg3013379

 FL is for sure a battleground state.

[/quote

Obama carried Florida by 2.81% in 2008.

I am just abut 100% sure Florida is 2.81% less favorable to Obama today than it was in 2008.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #8793 on: September 06, 2011, 02:13:50 pm »
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Okay, this is starting to seem counter-intuitive. Economy creates no new jobs, stock market tanks yet disapproval declines and approval tanks. Perhaps we are reverting back to where we were pre-debt ceiling crisis, as liberals "get over it" and move back to Obama? Or perhaps we're seeing a pro-recession sample of Tea Partiers who are loving that his chances of re-election are on the decline? Tongue


Gallup's polling methods are substantially different than those used by other pollsters, there are just simply some fundemental and structural elements in the way Gallup does things that causes their polls to be erratic, at least when viewed in the short term.

Gallup's tracking poll has a long history of wandering off on it's own (in either direction) before reverting back to the mean. - This is not a criticism of Gallup BTW, there methods have some very substantial advantages as well, unfortunately stability is not one of them.

Rasmussen, at the other extreme, is build to be very stable, it is built almost the opposite of Gallup.

I look at the current crop of polls on the RCP averages and I see on the approval side:

Politico/GWU/Battleground                45
CNN/Opinion Research                        45   
FOX News                                             44      
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl                        44   
Rasmussen Reports                              43   
Gallup                                                43   
ABC News/Wash Post                        43   
Quinnipiac                                        42   

We have, give or take a bit of random error, consensus at 43% or 44%.

If somebody very, very, very gold plated (perhaps NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl) were to show, in a series of polls, a number away from the consensus I would look at it.  But till then, it's all just random noise till proven otherwise.

As they saying goes... "One poll, is, well, one poll....."




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« Reply #8794 on: September 06, 2011, 04:02:34 pm »
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Right, but it seems downright WEIRD that Obama can somehow be in the mid 40s with the economy the way it is. Doesn't it?
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« Reply #8795 on: September 06, 2011, 05:13:22 pm »
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This is my "The economy has improved, unemployment drops to 8%, the R nominee is Perry/-not Rubio/-Romney, and we're not in a realignment" map:



lol
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« Reply #8796 on: September 06, 2011, 05:18:05 pm »
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This is my "The economy has improved, unemployment drops to 8%, the R nominee is Perry/-not Rubio/-Romney, and we're not in a realignment" map:



lol

Well, you're right, it would probably be worse.
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J. J.

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The Kingfish
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« Reply #8797 on: September 06, 2011, 05:24:00 pm »
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This is my "The economy has improved, unemployment drops to 8%, the R nominee is Perry/-not Rubio/-Romney, and we're not in a realignment" map:



lol

Well, you're right, it would probably be worse.

For the Republicans.
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Sbane
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« Reply #8798 on: September 06, 2011, 05:43:19 pm »
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This is my "The economy has improved, unemployment drops to 8%, the R nominee is Perry/-not Rubio/-Romney, and we're not in a realignment" map:



Dude, if unemployment drops to 8%, with Perry as his opponent Obama will win both NC and FL. You can take that one to the bank. And NH?Huh Have you lost it?
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J. J.
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« Reply #8799 on: September 06, 2011, 05:51:45 pm »
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This is my "The economy has improved, unemployment drops to 8%, the R nominee is Perry/-not Rubio/-Romney, and we're not in a realignment" map:



lol

Well, you're right, it would probably be worse.

For the Republicans.

Dave has not changed the colors.

Even with improvement, Obama has engendered people that really, really, hate him.  He's lost that group.  Right now, on Rasmussen, that group is higher than everyone who even sort of likes him.  Related to that are the people that have totally given up on him. 

(Ironically, I'm not in the group that really, really, hates him or have totally given up on him.)

That map, BTW, would still show a potential Obama victory.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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