The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[J. J.]

PPP

Obama trails Palin by 14 with independents in North Carolina, that's when you know you're having a bad month.
8 hours ago

Do you have a link?

[The Professor]

J.J., I wanted to congratulate you on your assignment "A Typical Day In My Life". I think you did a superb job with it. So good that I think I'll share it with everyone else.

[Iosif]

J.J., I wanted to congratulate you on your assignment "A Typical Day In My Life". I think you did a superb job with it. So good that I think I'll share it with everyone else.

That. Is. BRILLIANT!

[J. J.]

J.J., I wanted to congratulate you on your assignment "A Typical Day In My Life". I think you did a superb job with it. So good that I think I'll share it with everyone else.

On a day we have flooding.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42, -1.

Disapprove 56%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

Pre-speech numbers, obviously.

[krazen1211]

PPP

Obama trails Palin by 14 with independents in North Carolina, that's when you know you're having a bad month.
8 hours ago

Do you have a link?

http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls

Electability argument on its head at least in one state: Perry fav with NC independents is 44/34, Romney's is 35/50

Romney favorability with North Carolina Republicans: 39/40. His negatives with party base really seem to be on the rise.



Perry should be a better candidate in North Carolina.

[Tender Branson]

North Carolina Independents are very GOP-leaning anyway. McCain won them 60-39.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 43%
Disapprove...................................................... 53%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 45%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 43%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 42%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 46%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 44%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

Poor approval rating, but President Obama apparently beats everyone but Perry (whom he ties) this time.  Note that this comes before the "Ponzi scheme" description of Social Security. This model does not allow me to anticipate the consequences of a sudden incidence of "foot-in-the-mouth disease".

I am showing the results of a poll for Alabama (it is a favorability and not an approval poll that shows favorability in the high 30s.. I doubt that anyone will call me on my estimate that favorability in such an incidence is close enough to approval in this zone.  President Obama loses to every Republican shown, and I doubt that anyone would have a problem with a guess that the Obama vote in Alabama  will be effectively the percentage of the  African-American vote. Bachmann isn't included.  President Obama would lose the state by roughly 20% to either Perry or Romney, which suggests an approval rating at or below 40%.  Alabama will go to the President only in a 45-state landslide.








Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest):

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 63
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    80
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 89
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 41
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   26




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 54
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    104
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 102
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 24
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  41
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  35  

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  43%, -1.

Disapprove:  49%, -1.

These numbers are now showing a very good trend for Obama.  He is off his low.  It is possible that he'll sag at a later point, but if the numbers hold through Sunday, he has recovered.  (Paris doesn't fall.)

[Politico]

PPP

Obama trails Palin by 14 with independents in North Carolina, that's when you know you're having a bad month.
8 hours ago

Do you have a link?

http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls

Electability argument on its head at least in one state: Perry fav with NC independents is 44/34, Romney's is 35/50

Romney favorability with North Carolina Republicans: 39/40. His negatives with party base really seem to be on the rise.



Perry should be a better candidate in North Carolina.

Stick that dumbass Perry on the bottom of the ticket and hope he never becomes president. Problem solved.

[Odysseus]

PPP

Obama trails Palin by 14 with independents in North Carolina, that's when you know you're having a bad month.
8 hours ago

Do you have a link?

http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls

Electability argument on its head at least in one state: Perry fav with NC independents is 44/34, Romney's is 35/50

Romney favorability with North Carolina Republicans: 39/40. His negatives with party base really seem to be on the rise.



Perry should be a better candidate in North Carolina.

Stick that dumbass Perry in a roadside gas station and hope he never becomes president. Problem solved.

Fixed.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42, u.

Disapprove 55%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42, u.

Disapprove 55%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.

[Tender Branson]

Gallup:

42-48 (-1, nc)

No speech bump so far.

[J. J.]

Gallup:

42-48 (-1, nc)

No speech bump so far.

But they have turned off the lows.  Obama might slump again, but, for now, he's improving.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, +2.

Disapprove 55%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.

Possibly some movement toward Obama.

[Diabolical Minds Think Alike]

J.J., I wanted to congratulate you on your assignment "A Typical Day In My Life". I think you did a superb job with it. So good that I think I'll share it with everyone else.

Wait hold on I'm still laughing at this.

[Tender Branson]

PPP:

43% Approve
53% Disapprove

Public Policy Polling, 1000 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, September 8, 2011 - September 11, 2011.

http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/9/8

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, +1.

Disapprove 54%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

Possibly some movement toward Obama, again.  Either that or statistical noise. 

[Mehmentum]

The PPP and Rasmussen Polls are very close.

Something's wrong.

[Tender Branson]

California (Field):

[Tender Branson]

Bloomberg/Selzer:

45% Approve
49% Disapprove

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rcBTdobXyUWg

CNN/ORC:

43% Approve
55% Disapprove

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/13/cnn-poll-president-gets-no-bounce-from-speech-but-disapproval-rating-peaks

[J. J.]

California (Field):

Those CA numbers are starting to be brutal.

[Tender Branson]

Those CA numbers are starting to be brutal.

I guess many California Democrats are disapproving right now because they think Obama is not liberal enough. But during the 2012 campaign this will change and they will never vote for someone like Rick Perry.

[J. J.]

Those CA numbers are starting to be brutal.

I guess many California Democrats are disapproving right now because they think Obama is not liberal enough. But during the 2012 campaign this will change and they will never vote for someone like Rick Perry.

I think it is the unemployment rate, which is 12%.  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/19/california-unemployment-rate-july-2011_n_931989.html