The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[King]

Gallup
A 49%
D 44%

Rasmussen
A 49%
D 50%

[BigSkyBob]

Rasmussen 6/2:

Romney 48% Obama 44%
Obama Approval 46% Disapproval 53%

The first day reflecting the jobs report show movement against Obama. Next two days could be interesting.

[kingthlayer]

Gallup

Approve 47% +1
Disapprove 45% -2

[kingthlayer]

Gallup

Approve 46% unchanged
Disapprove 47% +1

Guys when will May's poor job creation report tank Obama's approval ratings? Its been nearly a week, I'm getting a little impatient here.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I don't know, but it's getting disgusting how America just laps up anything Obama, even with reality staring them in the face.

[philly09]

Rasmussen

Obama and Romney are tied at 46%

Obama approval ratings:

49% Approve
50% Disapprove

[kingthlayer]

Well this sure is interesting:

Less Than Half in U.S. See Friday's Jobs Report as Negative, according to Gallup.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/155084/Less-Half-Friday-Jobs-Report-Negative.aspx

Despite extensive news coverage of what was widely portrayed as a disappointing government jobs report last Friday, Americans are about as likely to describe it as "mixed" (40%) as to say it is "negative" (42%), with a small minority characterizing it as "positive" (9%). But Americans who view the report as negative are more likely to say it was somewhat negative rather than very negative.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Oh, I understand Obama's campaign strategy now. Be SO bad and set the bar SO low that bad news is good news and Americans start to accept a new normal. Bravo, Mr. President--you will destroy the country.

[oakvale]

Maybe Americans are beginning to realise that the alternative is a weak, unprincipled President controlled by a party of psychotic fascist maniacs.

[Secretary Polnut]

Oh, I understand Obama's campaign strategy now. Be SO bad and set the bar SO low that bad news is good news and Americans start to accept a new normal. Bravo, Mr. President--you will destroy the country.

You really live in a strange little world...

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Sure. And this strange little world looks a lot like Earth, 2012. Where Obama has nothing to show for three and a half years in office but Americans still love the guy. It is pretty strange, isn't it?

[Secretary Polnut]

Sure. And this strange little world looks a lot like Earth, 2012. Where Obama has nothing to show for three and a half years in office but Americans still love the guy. It is pretty strange, isn't it?

4.5 million private sector jobs created? The unemployment rate would be a full % lower were it not for the states going all European austerity on their workforces?

A better job creation rate than Bush, who squandered surpluses and the ultimate example that tax cuts don't pay for themselves?

[kingthlayer]

Gallup:

Approve: 48%, +1
Disapprove: 45%, unchanged

[Yank2133]

Obama cracks 50.

Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 44%

Good news since he has a bad couple of weeks.

[cope1989]

Hey Hagrid, now you know how Democrats felt in 2004. A president that the other side hated somehow managed to win a second term in uncertain times. Karma's a bitch aint it?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Both weren't exactly the best incumbents. It's sort of interesting though how I percieve their personal weaknesses to be total opposites. Bush's weakness was his percieved stupidity. But I think even Republicans will agree that Obama's an intelligent guy. Obama's weaknes, though, is the percieved lack of strength in his leadership. And I actually think the leadership issue was a plus for Bush in 2004. Bush didn't seem like a waffler.

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

[King]

I'm not sure how I feel about a Canadian calling my President "Mr. President."

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I'm not sure I care.

[pbrower2a]

Sure. And this strange little world looks a lot like Earth, 2012. Where Obama has nothing to show for three and a half years in office but Americans still love the guy. It is pretty strange, isn't it?

1. Putting an end to the most severe and dangerous economic meltdown in nearly 80 years.

2. Much legislative activity.

3. American involvement in Iraq ended.

4. American involvement in Afghanistan winding down.

5. Anti-American sentiments vastly reduced.

6. Good handling of the Arab Spring.

7. Osama bin Ladin whacked. 

[HagridOfTheDeep]

At least the other folks offered something specific and unsubjective. I'll give you 2.5 out of 7.

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

At least the other folks offered something specific and unsubjective. I'll give you 2.5 out of 7.

Which won't you give him?

[Mr.Phips]

Hey Hagrid, now you know how Democrats felt in 2004. A president that the other side hated somehow managed to win a second term in uncertain times. Karma's a bitch aint it?

The economy was pretty good in 2004.  Unemployment was around 5.5% and falling and GDP growth was about 3%. 

[HagridOfTheDeep]

At least the other folks offered something specific and unsubjective. I'll give you 2.5 out of 7.

Which won't you give him?

1, 2, 5, and 6 are completely subjective. I get the half-point from 4.

[The Vorlon]

So assuming that these polls are beginning to have more of a predictive value, where would we say we are at this point?

The "horse race" polls still have very weak predictive power, they are worth a glace in the sense that if Romney were to open up a consistent and stable lead it might mean something, but there is such a long way to go....

If you track losing Presidents, Carter had a big lead on Reagan at this point, and Bush #1 was still up on Bubba at this point in the race.

Job approval still is a far better predictor of outcome at this point, and the current results are pretty inconclusive.

If Obama's broad aggregate approval over an averaged range of polls is above 50% he is just about certain to win.  If the GOP had a super duper amazing candidate, you could maybe knock out Obama if he was 50%+, but this is not the case.

On the other hand, if Obama is below 45% by the same measure, he is pretty much doomed.

Bush II was polling very similarly to Obama in the summer of 2004.  Given that GOPers tend to gain a couple % when we shift to a likely voter model, and Dens tend to drop a point or two, I would say Obama is pretty much right on the bubble right now.

An interesting point will be how the shift in financial resources will impact the race.  In 2008 Obama had roughly a 2 to 1 financial advantage over McCain, and this allowed Obama to expand the playing field to places like North Carolina, Virginia, etc and McCain simply did not have the resources to fight back.

In 2012 it seems like outside GOP aligned groups (Crossroads GPS, Restore Our Future, etc) may come fairly close to bridging the spending gap that the Dems traditionally enjoy from Labor unions, Hollywood, etc.

GOP friendly groups might pour a lot of money into places like Pennsylvania and Michigan not so much to actually win those states, but to pull time and money from the Obama campaign away from places like Ohio and perhaps Virginia that are likely the pivotal states.

The continued decline of Dem friendly mainstream media and the rise of internet and alternative media also represents a shift that favors the GOP.

Right now, this looks like an amazingly close race to me.

[Senator Sbane]

The rise of the internet helping the GOP? Dems usually enjoying a money advantage? Uh....

Interesting analysis otherwise. I also think this race is very tight, though I do think Obama's approval numbers underestimate how he would do against Romney or any other generic Republican (version 2012). There are groups out there that do not approve of the job Obama has done but voting for the Republicans is not a viable option.