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J. J.
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« Reply #5400 on: July 22, 2010, 08:50:46 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -2.

Disapprove 55% +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, u.


Still well within range.
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« Reply #5401 on: July 22, 2010, 11:00:33 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -2.

Disapprove 55% +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, u.

The oddity with Rasmussen's national poll is that the state polls don't fit at 44% nationwide. A poll a couple days ago in Kentucky was close to that.


Still well within range.
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« Reply #5402 on: July 22, 2010, 12:42:21 pm »
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FL (Rasmussen): 47-52

GA (Rasmussen): 41-57

AR (Rasmussen): 34-65
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« Reply #5403 on: July 22, 2010, 01:24:51 pm »
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Georgia is not as bad as it could be. If I recall he had a 41% approval rating a few months ago and it's held steady.The changing demographics of Georgia bode well for the Democrats and Obama, but he would certainly lose the state today. 2012 is a different story though...
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« Reply #5404 on: July 22, 2010, 01:37:31 pm »
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P.S. (liberal soapbox) I don't understand why the voters in Arkansas, one of the poorest states in the nation, are so against a healthcare plan that will finally give many of them healthcare  coverage and favor cutting spending, which would likely end manysocial programs that benefit Arkansans. It makes me think that the people there don't like Barack Obama, for various reasons, and will oppose anything that they feel represents him.
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« Reply #5405 on: July 22, 2010, 01:42:36 pm »
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P.S. (liberal soapbox) I don't understand why the voters in Arkansas, one of the poorest states in the nation, are so against a healthcare plan that will finally give many of them healthcare  coverage and favor cutting spending, which would likely end manysocial programs that benefit Arkansans. It makes me think that the people there don't like Barack Obama, for various reasons, and will oppose anything that they feel represents him.

It could just be because of a genuine philosophical concern with a program that results in an expansion of the government's power and budget. A lot of conservatives want small government, even at the expense of programs that may benefit them.
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« Reply #5406 on: July 22, 2010, 04:26:26 pm »
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Georgia is not as bad as it could be. If I recall he had a 41% approval rating a few months ago and it's held steady.The changing demographics of Georgia bode well for the Democrats and Obama, but he would certainly lose the state today. 2012 is a different story though...

More significantly, the President has powers that allow him -- if he is at all competent -- to shape the legislative agenda.  He can choose his public appearances largely to his advantage. He can ride the economy and exploit positive changes in foreign policy and any military victories even if he has little involvement in either.

Some people will vote for any incumbent President who seems effective in getting his agenda passed. Nobody can deny his effectiveness at getting health care reform and Wall Street reform passed. He made his promises on legislation and he achieved them. People who disliked their substance before them aren't  likely to change their minds. But all in all, incumbents generally gain about 6-7% vote share from the beginning of the campaign season to November.

Georgia had an unusual voting pattern for a state so close in the 2008 election: voters under 30 actually voted more than half for John McCain, something rare in any state. As an example, Obama won the under-30 vote in Texas about 55-45, nearly the opposite for the state as a whole. Probable explanation:  Georgia has a large military presence, and the military -- heavily people under 30 -- likely voted for the war hero. Even without a war hero, young soldiers are likely to be conservative-leaning for youth. Although black and Hispanic soldiers might   be close to political cross sections of their ethnic communities, white soldiers are likely to be more politically conservative than non-soldiers.

The GOP nominee of 2012 will not be a war hero, and should things finally go right for America in Afghanistan and Iraq, then President Obama will get the credit. I can't guess how much of a gain that might offer to the President, but it might be enough to swing Georgia.

P.S. (liberal soapbox) I don't understand why the voters in Arkansas, one of the poorest states in the nation, are so against a healthcare plan that will finally give many of them healthcare  coverage and favor cutting spending, which would likely end manysocial programs that benefit Arkansans. It makes me think that the people there don't like Barack Obama, for various reasons, and will oppose anything that they feel represents him.

Arkansas is one of five states [Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia]  that Bill Clinton won but Obama lost by large margins. It could be that Barack Obama is the wrong sort of Democrat to win any of those states. Moderate Southern  populists (Carter, Clinton) might still be able to win those states; purer liberals can't. Protestant Christian fundamentalism is strong in Arkansas, and the state is home to Wal-Mart, a staunchly Republican corporation.

The usual common wisdom that poor, undereducated people reliably vote Democratic and well-off, well-educated people vote reliably  Republican is no longer true. The New York Times had an Election Key that explained county-by-county votes by such factors as religion, income, education, population density, and ethnicity.  The poorest counties in America voted heavily for Obama if the populations were heavily black, Latino, or Native American but for McCain if they were predominantly-white.  In contrast, some of the counties with the highest incomes (like Westchester, New York; Marin, California; San Mateo, California; Loudoun, Virginia; Fairfax, Virginia; Prince George's, Maryland) voted heavily for Obama. Religion mattered greatly; areas with large numbers of Christian Fundamentalists (if not black) voted firmly for McCain.

One of the strongest correlations was to population density. With few exceptions, like Monmouth Co., NJ; Richmond, NY (Staten Island); Orange, CA; and Tarrant, TX, communities with high population density voted for Obama -- often in overwhelming numbers. Comparatively small communities such as some of Virginia's "independent cities" tended to vote for Obama.

OK -- Obama concentrated his efforts heavily in urban and suburban America, in contrast to Sarah Palin stuck to the "Real America". As President Obama shows, the voters are where the concrete is. John McCain won rural, white, Fundamentalist America. Such might have been a good strategy ninety years ago -- but this is no longer 1918. Barack Obama recognized that the divide between urban and suburban America isn't as obvious as it used to be. 

McCain/Palin won heavily in rural America and of course in largely the most rural of states. That includes Arkansas. Of course if President Obama's health care reforms make medical care more accessible to the working poor. rural and urban, then he wins a landslide in 2012. But we can't predict that now.       
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« Reply #5407 on: July 22, 2010, 05:05:20 pm »
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WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

Well, I've always viewed the left coast as the Hollywood, hippie wing of the democrat party. They are both in play for 2012 at this point though lol.
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« Reply #5408 on: July 22, 2010, 07:22:43 pm »
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WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

Well, I've always viewed the left coast as the Hollywood, hippie wing of the democrat party. They are both in play for 2012 at this point though lol.

Obama won't lose CA or WA in 2012.
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« Reply #5409 on: July 23, 2010, 01:27:12 am »
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WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

Well, I've always viewed the left coast as the Hollywood, hippie wing of the democrat party. They are both in play for 2012 at this point though lol.

Obama won't lose CA or WA in 2012.

What ABOUT THE CURRENT TRENDS makes you say that?
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« Reply #5410 on: July 23, 2010, 07:47:38 am »
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Rhode Island State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted July 21, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

31% Strongly approve
19% Somewhat approve
16% Somewhat disapprove
34% Strongly disapprove
  0% Not sure

Slipping.  It could also be that the wild margins by which Barack Obama won in New England in 2008 are unsustainable.

Arkansas Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted July 20, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

17% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
  9% Somewhat disapprove
56% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

49 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.  The exception is Montana among the states. DC has yet to be polled.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  154
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  49
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 133
white                        too close to call  6
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  60
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  54
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 107
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......


Note that I have just added a level of support of 44% to fit the "too close to call category".


« Last Edit: July 23, 2010, 12:47:22 pm by pbrower2a »Logged



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« Reply #5411 on: July 23, 2010, 08:06:41 am »
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Georgia is not as bad as it could be. If I recall he had a 41% approval rating a few months ago and it's held steady.The changing demographics of Georgia bode well for the Democrats and Obama, but he would certainly lose the state today. 2012 is a different story though...

More significantly, the President has powers that allow him -- if he is at all competent -- to shape the legislative agenda.  He can choose his public appearances largely to his advantage. He can ride the economy and exploit positive changes in foreign policy and any military victories even if he has little involvement in either.

Or he could take a historic, public-perception-shaping moment, like the signing of an unemployment extension bill, and muddy it with a bizarre fired/not fired saga over racial discrimination from the 1980s.
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« Reply #5412 on: July 23, 2010, 08:50:49 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 55% +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, u.

Sill within range, though there is some slumping of Obama's numbers.  Noise?
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J. J.

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« Reply #5413 on: July 23, 2010, 12:59:41 pm »
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WV (Rasmussen): 32-67

AZ (Rasmussen): 42-58
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« Reply #5414 on: July 23, 2010, 01:39:46 pm »
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Arizona State Survey of 1,200 Likely Voters
Conducted July 21, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

   

26% Strongly approve

16% Somewhat approve

8% Somewhat disapprove

50% Strongly disapprove

1% Not sure






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

49 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.  The exception is Montana among the states. DC has yet to be polled.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  154
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  49
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 133
white                        too close to call  6
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  71
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  54
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 96
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......
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« Reply #5415 on: July 23, 2010, 01:47:07 pm »
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WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

Well, I've always viewed the left coast as the Hollywood, hippie wing of the democrat party. They are both in play for 2012 at this point though lol.

Obama won't lose CA or WA in 2012.

What ABOUT THE CURRENT TRENDS makes you say that?

I live in California. In Orange County, a swing area. Obama and the Democrats are still pretty popular here, and many people here still remember how the GOP screwed over our country and economy under Bush Jr. It would take a second Great Depression for the Republicans to win California and Washington in 2012.
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« Reply #5416 on: July 23, 2010, 02:38:34 pm »
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WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

Well, I've always viewed the left coast as the Hollywood, hippie wing of the democrat party. They are both in play for 2012 at this point though lol.

Obama won't lose CA or WA in 2012.

What ABOUT THE CURRENT TRENDS makes you say that?

I live in California. In Orange County, a swing area. Obama and the Democrats are still pretty popular here, and many people here still remember how the GOP screwed over our country and economy under Bush Jr. It would take a second Great Depression for the Republicans to win California and Washington in 2012.

Do you know how many McCain flags there were in NJ?
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« Reply #5417 on: July 23, 2010, 02:54:38 pm »
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WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

Well, I've always viewed the left coast as the Hollywood, hippie wing of the democrat party. They are both in play for 2012 at this point though lol.

Obama won't lose CA or WA in 2012.

What ABOUT THE CURRENT TRENDS makes you say that?

I live in California. In Orange County, a swing area. Obama and the Democrats are still pretty popular here, and many people here still remember how the GOP screwed over our country and economy under Bush Jr. It would take a second Great Depression for the Republicans to win California and Washington in 2012.

Asking a few neighbours doesn't exactly tell you how the other few million people in the state will vote.
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« Reply #5418 on: July 23, 2010, 03:14:28 pm »
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WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

Well, I've always viewed the left coast as the Hollywood, hippie wing of the democrat party. They are both in play for 2012 at this point though lol.

Obama won't lose CA or WA in 2012.

What ABOUT THE CURRENT TRENDS makes you say that?

I live in California. In Orange County, a swing area. Obama and the Democrats are still pretty popular here, and many people here still remember how the GOP screwed over our country and economy under Bush Jr. It would take a second Great Depression for the Republicans to win California and Washington in 2012.

Asking a few neighbours doesn't exactly tell you how the other few million people in the state will vote.

Well, LA County and the Bay Area metropolis are much more liberal than where I live, so if I don't see any Tea Party rallies around here, that would probably mean that most of the other large areas of the state would be even less receptive to Tea Partiers like Palin (in 2012, if she gets nominated).
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« Reply #5419 on: July 23, 2010, 03:22:50 pm »
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I live in California. In Orange County, a swing area. Obama and the Democrats are still pretty popular here, and many people here still remember how the GOP screwed over our country and economy under Bush Jr. It would take a second Great Depression for the Republicans to win California and Washington in 2012.

I also live in California, in a Staunchly Democratic area (between 85-90% Obama), and i can tell you that the Liberals are probably the most demoralized bunch I've ever seen.  In 2008 I had no less than 4 separate people knock on my door campaigning for Obama, and ever other car had an Obama bumper sticker on it.  Nowadays, the area feels politically dead, and some of my Liberal friends are honestly considering sitting this election out (though in a D + 23 district, it's not likely to matter).

This might be an isolated case of a group of people who fit in with the Socialist party more than the Democratic party being disappointed in Obama for not bringing about the glorious people's republic, but i don't think Obama will ever be able to recapture the sort of political momentum that won him the office in 2008.  And without that, there is always a chance of him suffering a blistering defeat in 2012.
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« Reply #5420 on: July 23, 2010, 05:12:19 pm »
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I live in California. In Orange County, a swing area. Obama and the Democrats are still pretty popular here, and many people here still remember how the GOP screwed over our country and economy under Bush Jr. It would take a second Great Depression for the Republicans to win California and Washington in 2012.

I also live in California, in a Staunchly Democratic area (between 85-90% Obama), and i can tell you that the Liberals are probably the most demoralized bunch I've ever seen.  In 2008 I had no less than 4 separate people knock on my door campaigning for Obama, and ever other car had an Obama bumper sticker on it.  Nowadays, the area feels politically dead, and some of my Liberal friends are honestly considering sitting this election out (though in a D + 23 district, it's not likely to matter).

This might be an isolated case of a group of people who fit in with the Socialist party more than the Democratic party being disappointed in Obama for not bringing about the glorious people's republic, but i don't think Obama will ever be able to recapture the sort of political momentum that won him the office in 2008.  And without that, there is always a chance of him suffering a blistering defeat in 2012.

Do you live in the bay area? There are certainly a lot of demoralized left wingers here.
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« Reply #5421 on: July 23, 2010, 06:53:09 pm »
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AZ, ID, NY, RI, AR, GA, & WV


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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« Reply #5422 on: July 23, 2010, 07:09:13 pm »
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What gives NJ? Must be the north...
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Derek
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« Reply #5423 on: July 23, 2010, 10:54:59 pm »
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WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

Well, I've always viewed the left coast as the Hollywood, hippie wing of the democrat party. They are both in play for 2012 at this point though lol.

Obama won't lose CA or WA in 2012.

What ABOUT THE CURRENT TRENDS makes you say that?

I live in California. In Orange County, a swing area. Obama and the Democrats are still pretty popular here, and many people here still remember how the GOP screwed over our country and economy under Bush Jr. It would take a second Great Depression for the Republicans to win California and Washington in 2012.

Well they must be the stereotypical Californians who skate board and do drugs because according to you they're remembering things that aren't real. It might just take a worthless president like Obama to lose CA and WA in 2012.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5424 on: July 24, 2010, 12:24:57 am »
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CA (SurveyUSA): 51-46

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c717d146-99e7-4de8-8217-9fb792fc2fb8

KS (SurveyUSA): 30-66

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c9cb9d95-0451-467c-8613-efb0bf5d4a7e

OR (SurveyUSA): 46-50

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=87dabdb7-5435-402e-891e-11b3bf475127

WA (SurveyUSA): 44-53

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c34262fe-7152-4e56-be8d-dd7e32b0f6dd

These polls would indicate about a 40-43% national approval rating.
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