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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 683451 times)
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« Reply #8750 on: September 04, 2011, 10:28:20 pm »
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Who would be the Republican candidate under this scenario? It's going to take someone of some caliber to win California, though I do agree it's not impossible. Republicans refuse to do that though. It goes against their values or something. I don't understand them.
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« Reply #8751 on: September 05, 2011, 08:36:03 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, u.

Disapprove 55%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

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« Reply #8752 on: September 05, 2011, 08:56:38 am »
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Who would be the Republican candidate under this scenario? It's going to take someone of some caliber to win California, though I do agree it's not impossible. Republicans refuse to do that though. It goes against their values or something. I don't understand them.

Other than the percentages, either Romney (and Romney has a shot at MA) or Perry, provided that Rubio is on the ticket and that he he appeals to voters of Mexican ancestry (note that I did not say the broader Hispanic ancestry.)

Ironically, I could see this as well, which is a realignment map:



Romney/Rubio, with swinging some of the voters of Mexican ancestry, but does well with Hispanics not of Mexican ancestry. 
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« Reply #8753 on: September 05, 2011, 09:19:17 am »
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Who would be the Republican candidate under this scenario? It's going to take someone of some caliber to win California, though I do agree it's not impossible. Republicans refuse to do that though. It goes against their values or something. I don't understand them.

Not impossible? What planet do you live on? The Republican platform in 2012 will be running on the most poisonous economic platform ever campaigned on by either party in the history of our country.

Reforming (gutting) entitlement programs
and
Tax cuts for the wealthy/corporations

Which in it by themselves are unpopular, together they're toxic.

Obama maybe end up being the weakest incumbent since Carter, but the GOP will be running Goldwater.

What happens when you do 1980 D vs 1964 R ? Certainly not a landslide in either direction.

Also keep in mind the electorate will be only 68 to 72% white in 2012, but I guess you figure Hispanics (who are overwhelmingly economic liberals ) will vote for tea party economics if you just put Rubio on the ticket.
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« Reply #8754 on: September 05, 2011, 09:37:19 am »
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Calm down buddy. I think I made it quite clear what I thought about the Republican's chances in California, considering who they are about to nominate. JJ thinks Romney or Perry could almost win in California, or New York, but as usual he is wrong. But you put in a candidate who talks clearly and says we need to raise taxes but at the same reform entitlements, and add in a worsening economy and you have that sort of a victory. And yes I do think the economy needs to do much worse than just create 0 jobs for this scenario to occur.

And don't for a moment think a victory like this would be some great endorsement of the GOP. They could just as easily get thrown out in the next election. That's just how things are these days with the electorate.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2011, 09:39:33 am by sbane »Logged
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« Reply #8755 on: September 05, 2011, 10:12:31 am »
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Calm down buddy. I think I made it quite clear what I thought about the Republican's chances in California, considering who they are about to nominate. JJ thinks Romney or Perry could almost win in California, or New York, but as usual he is wrong. But you put in a candidate who talks clearly and says we need to raise taxes but at the same reform entitlements, and add in a worsening economy and you have that sort of a victory. And yes I do think the economy needs to do much worse than just create 0 jobs for this scenario to occur.

And don't for a moment think a victory like this would be some great endorsement of the GOP. They could just as easily get thrown out in the next election. That's just how things are these days with the electorate.

Well, I'm not quite saying almost.  I think that, with the right VP nominee, in the right conditions, either Perry or Romney would carry one or both.

A few things have to happen:

1.  The double dip, with unemployment higher than 9.0%.

2.  The right VP candidate, one that appeals to at least some Hispanics, like Rubio.


Just think about that possible combination in NY.

1.  The people that voted for hope and change see neither, and some of them stay home.  These are the core of Democratic support.

2.  Hispanics (mainly Puerto Ricans) more weakly support Obama; even if the turnout is less, a greater percentage vote for ____ and Rubio.



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« Reply #8756 on: September 05, 2011, 10:35:37 am »
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For Perry to win New York or California, the economy would have to be in complete freefall. With Romney, maybe he could pull it out since people do see him as some economic master or whatever. Even with Romney we would have to see unemployment pushing close to 10% though. If unemployment is still at 9.1-9.3%, we are looking at a close Obama loss at best for the Republicans. The battleground would still be the Midwest, four corners states and the Mid-Atlantic.
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« Reply #8757 on: September 05, 2011, 10:53:33 am »
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Calm down buddy. I think I made it quite clear what I thought about the Republican's chances in California, considering who they are about to nominate. JJ thinks Romney or Perry could almost win in California, or New York, but as usual he is wrong. But you put in a candidate who talks clearly and says we need to raise taxes but at the same reform entitlements, and add in a worsening economy and you have that sort of a victory. And yes I do think the economy needs to do much worse than just create 0 jobs for this scenario to occur.

And don't for a moment think a victory like this would be some great endorsement of the GOP. They could just as easily get thrown out in the next election. That's just how things are these days with the electorate.

Every single Republican candidate including the so called moderate Huntsman ruled out even a 10 to 1 ratio of spending cuts to tax increases.

The Paul Ryan plan which 95%+ of the GOP Congress voted for cuts taxes for the wealthy substantially.

I'm not saying the eventual GOP candidate isn't going to move somewhat to the right from the far right after the primaries, but to suggest that the GOP candidate may campaign on tax increases on the wealthy is just crazy.

There is a 0.0% chance of that happening, how do you not know that by now?

Now they may propose tax increases on the poor like Paul Ryan's plan does, but that would be a just another negative on their election odds.
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« Reply #8758 on: September 05, 2011, 12:18:23 pm »
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Calm down buddy. I think I made it quite clear what I thought about the Republican's chances in California, considering who they are about to nominate. JJ thinks Romney or Perry could almost win in California, or New York, but as usual he is wrong. But you put in a candidate who talks clearly and says we need to raise taxes but at the same reform entitlements, and add in a worsening economy and you have that sort of a victory. And yes I do think the economy needs to do much worse than just create 0 jobs for this scenario to occur.

And don't for a moment think a victory like this would be some great endorsement of the GOP. They could just as easily get thrown out in the next election. That's just how things are these days with the electorate.

Every single Republican candidate including the so called moderate Huntsman ruled out even a 10 to 1 ratio of spending cuts to tax increases.

The Paul Ryan plan which 95%+ of the GOP Congress voted for cuts taxes for the wealthy substantially.

I'm not saying the eventual GOP candidate isn't going to move somewhat to the right from the far right after the primaries, but to suggest that the GOP candidate may campaign on tax increases on the wealthy is just crazy.

There is a 0.0% chance of that happening, how do you not know that by now?

Now they may propose tax increases on the poor like Paul Ryan's plan does, but that would be a just another negative on their election odds.

I think I already mentioned the Republicans refuse to nominate a sensible candidate.
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« Reply #8759 on: September 05, 2011, 01:25:24 pm »
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For Perry to win New York or California, the economy would have to be in complete freefall. With Romney, maybe he could pull it out since people do see him as some economic master or whatever. Even with Romney we would have to see unemployment pushing close to 10% though. If unemployment is still at 9.1-9.3%, we are looking at a close Obama loss at best for the Republicans. The battleground would still be the Midwest, four corners states and the Mid-Atlantic.

You'll have to define freefall.

I'm saying, a double dip recession, with greater than 9% employment, and Rubio on the ticket, you are looking a a map like the one I posted.

The midwest is already a battleground.
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« Reply #8760 on: September 05, 2011, 01:27:20 pm »
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Woohoo. 400.000 page views.

Let's have a party ... Wink
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« Reply #8761 on: September 05, 2011, 01:30:33 pm »
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For Perry to win New York or California, the economy would have to be in complete freefall. With Romney, maybe he could pull it out since people do see him as some economic master or whatever. Even with Romney we would have to see unemployment pushing close to 10% though. If unemployment is still at 9.1-9.3%, we are looking at a close Obama loss at best for the Republicans. The battleground would still be the Midwest, four corners states and the Mid-Atlantic.

You'll have to define freefall.

I'm saying, a double dip recession, with greater than 9% employment, and Rubio on the ticket, you are looking a a map like the one I posted.

The midwest is already a battleground.

For Perry to come close in New York or California, we would have to have around 15% unemployment nationwide, and both of those states would have to have 1/4 unemployment statewide. It would also help if the nation's economic outlook looked around the same as Greece's.

For Perry to win those states, Barack Obama would have to announce a White House address just before election night, have a good portion of the nation watching, and devour a litter of kittens on live television.

(assuming no third party runs)
« Last Edit: September 05, 2011, 01:33:07 pm by Odysseus »Logged
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« Reply #8762 on: September 05, 2011, 03:25:40 pm »
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Quote

Editorial note: Gallup will not publish new Gallup Daily tracking results on Monday, Sept. 5. The next update will be Tuesday, Sept. 6.


In other words, Gallup screws up again.
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« Reply #8763 on: September 05, 2011, 04:27:01 pm »
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Huh? Tracking polls pretty regularly don't poll on Labor Day weekend. Of course, Rasmussen does, but they're a sh!t polling company.
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« Reply #8764 on: September 05, 2011, 04:30:13 pm »
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Huh? Tracking polls pretty regularly don't poll on Labor Day weekend. Of course, Rasmussen does, but they're a sh!t polling company.

Actually Gallup does, and they did Saturday; they also polled on Labor Day in 2009 and 2010.  BTW, Rasmussen was more accurate than Gallup last time.
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« Reply #8765 on: September 05, 2011, 04:37:45 pm »
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For Perry to win New York or California, the economy would have to be in complete freefall. With Romney, maybe he could pull it out since people do see him as some economic master or whatever. Even with Romney we would have to see unemployment pushing close to 10% though. If unemployment is still at 9.1-9.3%, we are looking at a close Obama loss at best for the Republicans. The battleground would still be the Midwest, four corners states and the Mid-Atlantic.

You'll have to define freefall.

I'm saying, a double dip recession, with greater than 9% employment, and Rubio on the ticket, you are looking a a map like the one I posted.

The midwest is already a battleground.

Freefall meaning credit markets seizing up, stock markets falling 500 points everyday and -500,000 payroll numbers. End of 2008 basically. You have to be a little more specific too. You really think Perry is going to win New York with 9.2% unemployment? That's absurd. Although when you start going above 10% unemployment, or at least payroll numbers as bad as I stated, then weird things can start happening. Still it would be a stretch for Perry to do well in the Northeast or the Pacific coast.
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« Reply #8766 on: September 05, 2011, 04:50:16 pm »
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For Perry to win New York or California, the economy would have to be in complete freefall. With Romney, maybe he could pull it out since people do see him as some economic master or whatever. Even with Romney we would have to see unemployment pushing close to 10% though. If unemployment is still at 9.1-9.3%, we are looking at a close Obama loss at best for the Republicans. The battleground would still be the Midwest, four corners states and the Mid-Atlantic.

You'll have to define freefall.

I'm saying, a double dip recession, with greater than 9% employment, and Rubio on the ticket, you are looking a a map like the one I posted.

The midwest is already a battleground.

Freefall meaning credit markets seizing up, stock markets falling 500 points everyday and -500,000 payroll numbers. End of 2008 basically. You have to be a little more specific too. You really think Perry is going to win New York with 9.2% unemployment? That's absurd. Although when you start going above 10% unemployment, or at least payroll numbers as bad as I stated, then weird things can start happening. Still it would be a stretch for Perry to do well in the Northeast or the Pacific coast.

I think it we have two quarters of negative growth, including a higher unemployment rate, we're not showing improvement over the summer of 2012, and Rubio is on the ticket, it is possible.  I should point out map, however, was for Romney/Rubio (which accounts for MA).
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« Reply #8767 on: September 05, 2011, 04:56:31 pm »
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For Perry to win New York or California, the economy would have to be in complete freefall. With Romney, maybe he could pull it out since people do see him as some economic master or whatever. Even with Romney we would have to see unemployment pushing close to 10% though. If unemployment is still at 9.1-9.3%, we are looking at a close Obama loss at best for the Republicans. The battleground would still be the Midwest, four corners states and the Mid-Atlantic.

You'll have to define freefall.

I'm saying, a double dip recession, with greater than 9% employment, and Rubio on the ticket, you are looking a a map like the one I posted.

The midwest is already a battleground.

It would take an economic situation like Hoover 1932.  With >18% unemployment, Perry would be favored in CA and NY would basically be a tie.  I think Obama would only win HI, VT, MA, MD, and DC and a 50/50 chance in NY and IL.       
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« Reply #8768 on: September 05, 2011, 05:22:08 pm »
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For Perry to win New York or California, the economy would have to be in complete freefall. With Romney, maybe he could pull it out since people do see him as some economic master or whatever. Even with Romney we would have to see unemployment pushing close to 10% though. If unemployment is still at 9.1-9.3%, we are looking at a close Obama loss at best for the Republicans. The battleground would still be the Midwest, four corners states and the Mid-Atlantic.

You'll have to define freefall.

I'm saying, a double dip recession, with greater than 9% employment, and Rubio on the ticket, you are looking a a map like the one I posted.

The midwest is already a battleground.

It would take an economic situation like Hoover 1932.  With >18% unemployment, Perry would be favored in CA and NY would basically be a tie.  I think Obama would only win HI, VT, MA, MD, and DC and a 50/50 chance in NY and IL.       

It would take much less than 1932 to do that.  The numbers are better than 1980.  Arguably, the economy isn't as bad as 1980, but unemployment is higher.

There has to be several things happening.  One of them is Rubio as VP; a second one that Rubio will attract at least Hispanics not of Mexican descent.  The third is the economy is worse, and in recession through the summer of 2012.

I think with Perry, a map might look more like this:



NB:  Those other conditions have to be present and there is no prediction that they will be.
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« Reply #8769 on: September 05, 2011, 05:54:27 pm »
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For Perry to win New York or California, the economy would have to be in complete freefall. With Romney, maybe he could pull it out since people do see him as some economic master or whatever. Even with Romney we would have to see unemployment pushing close to 10% though. If unemployment is still at 9.1-9.3%, we are looking at a close Obama loss at best for the Republicans. The battleground would still be the Midwest, four corners states and the Mid-Atlantic.

You'll have to define freefall.

I'm saying, a double dip recession, with greater than 9% employment, and Rubio on the ticket, you are looking a a map like the one I posted.

The midwest is already a battleground.

It would take an economic situation like Hoover 1932.  With >18% unemployment, Perry would be favored in CA and NY would basically be a tie.  I think Obama would only win HI, VT, MA, MD, and DC and a 50/50 chance in NY and IL.       

It would take much less than 1932 to do that.  The numbers are better than 1980.  Arguably, the economy isn't as bad as 1980, but unemployment is higher.

There has to be several things happening.  One of them is Rubio as VP; a second one that Rubio will attract at least Hispanics not of Mexican descent.  The third is the economy is worse, and in recession through the summer of 2012.

I think with Perry, a map might look more like this:



NB:  Those other conditions have to be present and there is no prediction that they will be.

You aren't giving Obama enough credit.  Even in 1932, Hoover won 6 states and narrowly lost another 2.  In say a 12% unemployment scenario, the election would surely be lost, but Obama would still win at least 10-15 states in a 2 way election.  The 60% Obama 2008 states aren't flipping barring 25% local unemployment. 

I think this is his realistic floor vs. Perry (Romney might get a bigger landslide):

*12.1% Unemployment on Election Day, job losses through the summer and fall*



Perry/Christie 376 EV/ 56.2% PV
Obama/Biden 162 EV/ 43.1% PV


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« Reply #8770 on: September 05, 2011, 06:01:52 pm »
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This map seems oddly familiar.....
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« Reply #8771 on: September 05, 2011, 06:04:18 pm »
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A realistic Obama Morning in America 2.0 ceiling:

*7.1% Unemployment on Election Day, >3.0 million new jobs created July-September 2012*



Obama/Biden 453 EV/ 58.8% PV
Perry/Christie  85 EV/ 40.6% PV
« Last Edit: September 05, 2011, 07:16:17 pm by Skill and Chance »Logged
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« Reply #8772 on: September 05, 2011, 07:10:14 pm »
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A realistic Obama Morning in America 2.0 ceiling:

*6.9% Unemployment on Election Day, >3.0 million new jobs created July-September 2012*



Obama/Biden 453 EV/ 58.8% PV
Perry/Christie  85 EV/ 40.6% PV

6.9% unemployment in October 2012 is not realistic.  You would need about 450,000 jobs created per month over the next year and GDP growth near 10% every quarter through the third of 2012.
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« Reply #8773 on: September 05, 2011, 07:14:59 pm »
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A realistic Obama Morning in America 2.0 ceiling:

*6.9% Unemployment on Election Day, >3.0 million new jobs created July-September 2012*



Obama/Biden 453 EV/ 58.8% PV
Perry/Christie  85 EV/ 40.6% PV

6.9% unemployment in October 2012 is not realistic.  You would need about 450,000 jobs created per month over the next year and GDP growth near 10% every quarter through the third of 2012.

I should have said 7.1%.  I'm looking for the outer positive edge of realistic, just like 12.1% would be the outer negative edge of realistic.  In 1983-84 there were several months of ~700K job growth and the labor force is about 1/3rd larger today than it was then.  Several months of 7 figure job growth should be possible in a 1935 or 1984 paced recovery with today's population.   
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« Reply #8774 on: September 05, 2011, 07:33:19 pm »
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Here's what I think is the most likely outcome as of now:

"A burst of 350k job growth during spring-summer 2012 and not having to run against Romney saved my presidency."



Obama/Biden 300 EV/ 50.4% PV
Perry/Christie  238 EV/ 48.7% PV

Election Day Unemployment: 8.5%
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