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The Vorlon
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« Reply #8800 on: September 06, 2011, 06:23:04 pm »
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Right, but it seems downright WEIRD that Obama can somehow be in the mid 40s with the economy the way it is. Doesn't it?

If the election were held today, I would think Obama gets about 48-49% vs Perry and maybe 47-48% vs Romney. Electorally speaking, Obama-Perry is too close to call (Perry being the slight favorite tbh) and a slight Romney victory. Against someone like Bachmann, Obama would win even in these conditions. IIRC Bush was hanging out around 48-49% when he was re-elected. Though if it was different please feel free to correct me.

Think you are pretty close re Bush approvals in 2004.



FWIW, according to the 2004 exit polls, among those who actually voted, Bush had an approval rating of 51%, which is almost exactly the 50.73% of the vote he actually got on election day....

At the very depths of the Abu Garab (sp?) mess Bush had a net negative approval rating of about  negative5%, But Bush was never definitively and clearly underwater befor the 2004 election, there was a lot of statistical noise where Bush was close to being even in terms of approval and disapproval.

He was able to battle back to +2 or 3% net by election day - a net turnaround of maybe 5% or so.

By contrast, Obama's approval is clearly underwater:



Also, A republican tends to do a little better than the adult/rv polling shows on election day, while a Democrat tends to do a little worse, so the relative gap of Obama 2011 versus Bush 2003 might be a bit bigger than it looks just using the graphs as a guide.

All this being said, the polls some 15 months out are not particularly predictive....

Its a bit interesting how volatile Obama's numbers have been.

Bush's approval ratings "crossed over" only three times (where his net approval went from positive to negative, or negative to positive)

he went (barely) negative during Abu Garab (sp?) then back to slightly positive till the election was over, the crossed back to negative and stayed there...

By contrast, Obama has "crossed over" 5 times already in under three years....







« Last Edit: September 06, 2011, 06:31:24 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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« Reply #8801 on: September 06, 2011, 06:25:14 pm »
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Right, but it seems downright WEIRD that Obama can somehow be in the mid 40s with the economy the way it is. Doesn't it?

Easy. The general assumption is that poor economy = hate the president. And for some people it is true, but not everyone. For some people its poor economy = hate the people that caused it. Some with very short term memories think Obama caused it. But most folks yet put the blame on Bush and the Republicans. This explains some of the feelings about congress perhaps but doesn't really apply to Obama. So for the set of folks that are not short term thinkers, the question is: Is the President doing enough to fix the economy? This is a much more mixed view. Of the people with less extremely set views on the president no matter what he does (tea party for example) there are people who are able to be convinced one way or another on how the president is doing in this department. Some of them pay a lot of attention. Others not so much. Some of them understand the complexity of the economy. Some do not. Most have inherent biases of some sort and are more easily swayed but certain arguments. And at present they're being swayed on the average towards thinking the president is either unable or unwilling to do what it takes to fix things, and thus are leaning towards disapproval. But its not a solid sell as this sup set of voters is hardly homogeneous. And as such, there is divisions here.

There is another possibility of course. That being that if the president has lost almost all the sway-able voters described above then he'd be near his base partisan limit. Basically the folks that would vote for a terrible Democrat in almost all cases because they know the Republican will always be worse for them and their interests. This kind of base solidity is not very well understood as some people claim to be persuadable but always seem to pull the lever for one party, and thus are not easily identified by polls and only sometimes by demographics (for instances, African American voters) So if this is the case, you could have 15% unemployment and the President would be maintaining 40% approval.

The question then is, what about the end of the Bush years when his approvals dropped crazy low? It might be that the Republican super base is much smaller then it likes to think itself or a very different dynamic was in play. Because Bush was not up for reelection in 2008, his base voters were liberated from having to pretend they like him. This plays well in two different directions. It allows some of them to feel good about themselves because Bush 'wasn't a real conservative'. Another direction is simply jumping on the bandwagon. The rest of the country was starting to hate him, so if one is going to keep looking like a mainstream guy, ya gotta start hating him to.

If Obama is reelected and things go much worse then they are today, it will be interesting to see how this dynamic plays out. I'd prefer of course that the economy grows strong and the yahoos who can hire start doing so again. But if disaster hits an Obama second term you might see him dip below his solid base level.

But I'm not sure what that is yet.
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« Reply #8802 on: September 06, 2011, 06:46:31 pm »
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There is another possibility of course. That being that if the president has lost almost all the sway-able voters described above then he'd be near his base partisan limit. Basically the folks that would vote for a terrible Democrat in almost all cases because they know the Republican will always be worse for them and their interests. This kind of base solidity is not very well understood as some people claim to be persuadable but always seem to pull the lever for one party, and thus are not easily identified by polls and only sometimes by demographics (for instances, African American voters) So if this is the case, you could have 15% unemployment and the President would be maintaining 40% approval.

The question then is, what about the end of the Bush years when his approvals dropped crazy low? It might be that the Republican super base is much smaller then it likes to think itself or a very different dynamic was in play. Because Bush was not up for reelection in 2008, his base voters were liberated from having to pretend they like him. This plays well in two different directions. It allows some of them to feel good about themselves because Bush 'wasn't a real conservative'. Another direction is simply jumping on the bandwagon. The rest of the country was starting to hate him, so if one is going to keep looking like a mainstream guy, ya gotta start hating him to.

If Obama is reelected and things go much worse then they are today, it will be interesting to see how this dynamic plays out. I'd prefer of course that the economy grows strong and the yahoos who can hire start doing so again. But if disaster hits an Obama second term you might see him dip below his solid base level.

But I'm not sure what that is yet.

You hit the nail on the head.

A huge chunk of voters are ideology driven, not reality driven.

When Bush Jr. turned out to be a bit of a disaster, it his base deserted him, not because conservatism was wrong, but because Bush wasn't conservative enough.... Their beliefs were correct, Bush was just an imperfect servant to their ideology.

Similarly, Obama's support to the degree they they are discontented, is again ideologically based.

Obama's own prediction for the Stimulus package was that he would keep unemployment under 8% - Despite Democratic post facto carping, the Democratic super majorities in both the House and Senate gave Obama every single penny he asked for...

So now that Unemployment is stuck above 9% when Obama's own prediction was that it would be 6.5% by now... - this is not because Obama's stimulus package was inherently flawed, it was because it was too small... (see Jack Krugman)

If only Obama octupled the size of the deficit instead of only tripling it, things would be much better...

Even in absolute utter blowout years AuH20 1964, H3 in 1972, Mondale in 1984, the losing candidate still got 40+ of the vote.

Barring a really strong 3rd party candidate, It is pretty hard to be a major party candidate and get less than 40%.
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« Reply #8803 on: September 07, 2011, 08:00:07 am »
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Think you are pretty close re Bush approvals in 2004.



FWIW, according to the 2004 exit polls, among those who actually voted, Bush had an approval rating of 51%, which is almost exactly the 50.73% of the vote he actually got on election day....

I want to point out that this is almost identical to the Gallup weekly tracking poll.


Quote
He was able to battle back to +2 or 3% net by election day - a net turnaround of maybe 5% or so.



Except for GWB, all incumbent presidents that were reelected since 1972 had less than a majority in late August the year prior to their elections.  Bush had 52%, which was about what he got.  That pattern is good news for Obama.

Along with GWB, both Truman and Eisenhower had a majority.  Truman had between 61% and 55%.  Eisenhower had 71%.

There is bad news.  Of those four presidents that were reelected, all had higher numbers in late August the year prior to their elections than Obama has.  Clinton was the closes with 44% to Obama's 40%.

I'm treating both Ford and Truman as being incumbents that were re-elected.  All of this data is from Gallup.
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« Reply #8804 on: September 07, 2011, 08:57:22 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +1.

I'd expect a bad sample.  Strongly approve is up, while approve is tied for a record low.
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« Reply #8805 on: September 07, 2011, 12:06:28 pm »
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http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  42%, -1.

Disapprove:  50%, u.

And von Kluck is still sitting outside of Ameins.  Smiley
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« Reply #8806 on: September 07, 2011, 01:59:03 pm »
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Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R):

47% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/system/assets/428/original/RR_August_Toplines.pdf
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« Reply #8807 on: September 07, 2011, 04:31:19 pm »
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Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R):

47% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/system/assets/428/original/RR_August_Toplines.pdf

Am I reading the first question correctly?  Is it a poll of people answering on cell phones?
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« Reply #8808 on: September 07, 2011, 05:32:05 pm »
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Building off what I said before, I'm starting to ponder looking at state by state polling data to try to find the percentage for each party that represents the core base for each in every state. Basically by looking at the minimal support Obama gets and the minimal support any of the Republicans get in credible non-partisan-biased polls. If the hard core base is most of what's left of those that approve of Obama enough to vote for him again, then against the strongest challenger he'd have only them left over. And for the lesser known or most disliked Republican candidates or would be candidates those that would vote Republican are those that would vote against Obama under any circumstances and thus most likely to be the core Republican base.

For instance, that PPP poll of Texas in June has the limits of Obama at 40% against Paul and Republican at 43% with Cain. This would suggest a Republican edge in the base there. It does not predict how the more swingy voters would fall in the election, but can provide some information on the size of that pool. So if some how Obama gets a winning strategy to get more then half of these folks on his side, he could win Texas. Its just very unlikely.

Another example, Utah. Obama's worst is 23% vs Huntsman and the Republicans worst is 43% with Palin or Cain. Obama would have to get almost all the swingable voters to be even competitive in Utah. So even if you didn't know the electoral history of Utah previous to this election, this would suggest not to bother sending resources there.

On the dem leaning side of things, there's Vermont. The latest poll has Obama's worst against Huckabee at 53% and the Republicans worst with 26% with Cain. Barring a very radical shift in the socio-political structure of the entire country or Obama going on a murderous rampage through an orphanage, any Republican efforts to win Vermont would be pointless to the extreme as there is not enough swing voters to get to a majority.

Then there's Virginia. The latest poll (all these seem to be PPP... other pollsters need to stop being lazy!) has Obama's worst at 47% vs Romeny and the Republicans worst at 37% with Palin. This is a very good sign for Obama as despite the conservative history of Virginia, it would appear that he's near a lock for the state as he only needs a small fraction of the swing voters to nab it.
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« Reply #8809 on: September 07, 2011, 06:23:10 pm »
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Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R):

47% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/system/assets/428/original/RR_August_Toplines.pdf

Am I reading the first question correctly?  Is it a poll of people answering on cell phones?

Nope, it's a dual frame (ie cells and land lines)

Ayres, McHenry & Associates is actually a pretty solid firm.  Most of the higher ups are alumni of Public Opinion Strategies

They do things a bit different in that most dual frame samples they complete the survey if the cell phone is peoples ONLY phone , but A H & A essentially makes no distinction between cell phones and land lands, they RDD all exchanges (cell and land) without establishing a strict quota  to divide between the two types.  It's a bit cheaper to do it that way actually as well.

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« Reply #8810 on: September 07, 2011, 09:41:42 pm »
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Building off what I said before, I'm starting to ponder looking at state by state polling data to try to find the percentage for each party that represents the core base for each in every state. Basically by looking at the minimal support Obama gets and the minimal support any of the Republicans get in credible non-partisan-biased polls. If the hard core base is most of what's left of those that approve of Obama enough to vote for him again, then against the strongest challenger he'd have only them left over. And for the lesser known or most disliked Republican candidates or would be candidates those that would vote Republican are those that would vote against Obama under any circumstances and thus most likely to be the core Republican base.

For instance, that PPP poll of Texas in June has the limits of Obama at 40% against Paul and Republican at 43% with Cain. This would suggest a Republican edge in the base there. It does not predict how the more swingy voters would fall in the election, but can provide some information on the size of that pool. So if some how Obama gets a winning strategy to get more then half of these folks on his side, he could win Texas. Its just very unlikely.

Another example, Utah. Obama's worst is 23% vs Huntsman and the Republicans worst is 43% with Palin or Cain. Obama would have to get almost all the swingable voters to be even competitive in Utah. So even if you didn't know the electoral history of Utah previous to this election, this would suggest not to bother sending resources there.

On the dem leaning side of things, there's Vermont. The latest poll has Obama's worst against Huckabee at 53% and the Republicans worst with 26% with Cain. Barring a very radical shift in the socio-political structure of the entire country or Obama going on a murderous rampage through an orphanage, any Republican efforts to win Vermont would be pointless to the extreme as there is not enough swing voters to get to a majority.

Then there's Virginia. The latest poll (all these seem to be PPP... other pollsters need to stop being lazy!) has Obama's worst at 47% vs Romeny and the Republicans worst at 37% with Palin. This is a very good sign for Obama as despite the conservative history of Virginia, it would appear that he's near a lock for the state as he only needs a small fraction of the swing voters to nab it.
Its not really fair to define the Republican base by whether or not they support Palin. 
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« Reply #8811 on: September 08, 2011, 03:16:40 am »
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Its not really fair to define the Republican base by whether or not they support Palin. 

Tis not Palin specifically that's the boundary, its just Palin has the lowest support in some match ups against the president and thus provides the upper bound for the unwavering base of the Republican party. The actual core might be smaller then this as this number would include them and those who like Palin but might yet be persuaded towards Obama somehow. I'm also not saying that large sections of of the softer support would yet vote for Palin over Obama, just that those folks are unwilling to support Palin at this point. So their unwillingness to say they support Palin now labels them as being softer supporters of the Republican ticket then those who do support Palin at this time.

This thought experiment is not a hard gauge of the core support, but a best answer that we can come up with given the evidence available. You are of course free to find better evidence and argue for it. But at this point this is all I got.
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« Reply #8812 on: September 08, 2011, 08:35:50 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43, +1.

Disapprove 56%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -2.

A bad sample dropped out.
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« Reply #8813 on: September 08, 2011, 12:12:05 pm »
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Gallup:

44% Approve (+2)
50% Disapprove (nc)
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« Reply #8814 on: September 08, 2011, 12:27:06 pm »
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Gallup:

44% Approve (+2)
50% Disapprove (nc)

Middle of the road Americans witnessed the celebration of violence and ignorance that was the Republican debate last night and are sprinting back to Obama.
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« Reply #8815 on: September 08, 2011, 12:31:49 pm »
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Gallup:

44% Approve (+2)
50% Disapprove (nc)

Middle of the road Americans witnessed the celebration of violence and ignorance that was the Republican debate last night and are sprinting back to Obama.

How good were the TV ratings?
 
 The polling was from before the GOP debate. More likely it is the effect of the Debt Ceiling fiasco going onto the back burner.

The President gets to offer his proposals for jobs tonight... and that will get more viewers and likely have more influence upon the opinions of the electorate than will the GOP debate last night. 
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« Reply #8816 on: September 08, 2011, 12:37:25 pm »
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Exactly 1 year ago, Obama's approval rating at Gallup was 44-48 and 41-58 at Rasmussen.

Not really any movement. I expect that his ratings go up a bit in the next week due to the speech and the 9/11 rememberings.
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« Reply #8817 on: September 08, 2011, 12:47:05 pm »
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http://www.gallup.com/poll/149351/Obama-Job-Approval-Sinks-New-Lows-Among-Whites-Hispanics.aspx

Obama Approval Sinks to New Lows Among Whites, Hispanics


He also received term-low monthly job approval ratings from both Hispanics (48%) and whites (33%) and tied his lowest rating from blacks (84%).




33% among whites is McGovern territory, lol.
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« Reply #8818 on: September 08, 2011, 01:12:21 pm »
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http://www.gallup.com/poll/149351/Obama-Job-Approval-Sinks-New-Lows-Among-Whites-Hispanics.aspx

Obama Approval Sinks to New Lows Among Whites, Hispanics


He also received term-low monthly job approval ratings from both Hispanics (48%) and whites (33%) and tied his lowest rating from blacks (84%).




33% among whites is McGovern territory, lol.

Well it's a good thing for Republicans that the racial demographics in 2012 will be identical those in 1972.
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« Reply #8819 on: September 08, 2011, 02:09:38 pm »
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http://www.gallup.com/poll/149351/Obama-Job-Approval-Sinks-New-Lows-Among-Whites-Hispanics.aspx

Obama Approval Sinks to New Lows Among Whites, Hispanics


He also received term-low monthly job approval ratings from both Hispanics (48%) and whites (33%) and tied his lowest rating from blacks (84%).




33% among whites is McGovern territory, lol.

Well it's a good thing for Republicans that the racial demographics in 2012 will be identical those in 1972.

How do you propose that any President can be elected with 33% of the white vote in 2012?
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« Reply #8820 on: September 08, 2011, 02:13:14 pm »
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http://www.gallup.com/poll/149351/Obama-Job-Approval-Sinks-New-Lows-Among-Whites-Hispanics.aspx

Obama Approval Sinks to New Lows Among Whites, Hispanics


He also received term-low monthly job approval ratings from both Hispanics (48%) and whites (33%) and tied his lowest rating from blacks (84%).




33% among whites is McGovern territory, lol.

Well it's a good thing for Republicans that the racial demographics in 2012 will be identical those in 1972.

How do you propose that any President can be elected with 33% of the white vote in 2012?

I guess it's also a good thing for Republicans that approval ratings always exactly match the percentage of the vote.
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« Reply #8821 on: September 08, 2011, 02:19:51 pm »
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Gallup:

44% Approve (+2)
50% Disapprove (nc)

Von Kluck has turned away from Paris and is heading for Compiègne (he might be back, however).  Smiley

Basically, Obama is out of his trough, though he could fall back into it.
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« Reply #8822 on: September 08, 2011, 02:38:29 pm »
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Nobody cares about Von Kluck you massive weirdo.
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« Reply #8823 on: September 08, 2011, 03:26:35 pm »
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Gallup:

44% Approve (+2)
50% Disapprove (nc)

Back to the area at which he has a good chance of winning.
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« Reply #8824 on: September 08, 2011, 05:04:59 pm »
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http://www.gallup.com/poll/149351/Obama-Job-Approval-Sinks-New-Lows-Among-Whites-Hispanics.aspx

Obama Approval Sinks to New Lows Among Whites, Hispanics


He also received term-low monthly job approval ratings from both Hispanics (48%) and whites (33%) and tied his lowest rating from blacks (84%).




33% among whites is McGovern territory, lol.

Well it's a good thing for Republicans that the racial demographics in 2012 will be identical those in 1972.

No, but don't exactly expect 67% of Hispanics to vote for Obama again, especially since it's almost a guarantee that either Rubio or Martinez will be the GOP VP choice. If they can get in the 40-45% range with Hispanics, the GOP could defeat Obama comfortably with the heavy level of white support they're likely to get.
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