The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[The Vorlon]

Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R):

47% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/system/assets/428/original/RR_August_Toplines.pdf

Am I reading the first question correctly?  Is it a poll of people answering on cell phones?

Nope, it's a dual frame (ie cells and land lines)

Ayres, McHenry & Associates is actually a pretty solid firm.  Most of the higher ups are alumni of Public Opinion Strategies

They do things a bit different in that most dual frame samples they complete the survey if the cell phone is peoples ONLY phone , but A H & A essentially makes no distinction between cell phones and land lands, they RDD all exchanges (cell and land) without establishing a strict quota  to divide between the two types.  It's a bit cheaper to do it that way actually as well.

[Mehmentum]

Building off what I said before, I'm starting to ponder looking at state by state polling data to try to find the percentage for each party that represents the core base for each in every state. Basically by looking at the minimal support Obama gets and the minimal support any of the Republicans get in credible non-partisan-biased polls. If the hard core base is most of what's left of those that approve of Obama enough to vote for him again, then against the strongest challenger he'd have only them left over. And for the lesser known or most disliked Republican candidates or would be candidates those that would vote Republican are those that would vote against Obama under any circumstances and thus most likely to be the core Republican base.

For instance, that PPP poll of Texas in June has the limits of Obama at 40% against Paul and Republican at 43% with Cain. This would suggest a Republican edge in the base there. It does not predict how the more swingy voters would fall in the election, but can provide some information on the size of that pool. So if some how Obama gets a winning strategy to get more then half of these folks on his side, he could win Texas. Its just very unlikely.

Another example, Utah. Obama's worst is 23% vs Huntsman and the Republicans worst is 43% with Palin or Cain. Obama would have to get almost all the swingable voters to be even competitive in Utah. So even if you didn't know the electoral history of Utah previous to this election, this would suggest not to bother sending resources there.

On the dem leaning side of things, there's Vermont. The latest poll has Obama's worst against Huckabee at 53% and the Republicans worst with 26% with Cain. Barring a very radical shift in the socio-political structure of the entire country or Obama going on a murderous rampage through an orphanage, any Republican efforts to win Vermont would be pointless to the extreme as there is not enough swing voters to get to a majority.

Then there's Virginia. The latest poll (all these seem to be PPP... other pollsters need to stop being lazy!) has Obama's worst at 47% vs Romeny and the Republicans worst at 37% with Palin. This is a very good sign for Obama as despite the conservative history of Virginia, it would appear that he's near a lock for the state as he only needs a small fraction of the swing voters to nab it.

Its not really fair to define the Republican base by whether or not they support Palin. 

[izixs]

Its not really fair to define the Republican base by whether or not they support Palin. 

Tis not Palin specifically that's the boundary, its just Palin has the lowest support in some match ups against the president and thus provides the upper bound for the unwavering base of the Republican party. The actual core might be smaller then this as this number would include them and those who like Palin but might yet be persuaded towards Obama somehow. I'm also not saying that large sections of of the softer support would yet vote for Palin over Obama, just that those folks are unwilling to support Palin at this point. So their unwillingness to say they support Palin now labels them as being softer supporters of the Republican ticket then those who do support Palin at this time.

This thought experiment is not a hard gauge of the core support, but a best answer that we can come up with given the evidence available. You are of course free to find better evidence and argue for it. But at this point this is all I got.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43, +1.

Disapprove 56%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -2.

A bad sample dropped out.

[Tender Branson]

Gallup:

44% Approve (+2)
50% Disapprove (nc)

[Lief]

Gallup:

44% Approve (+2)
50% Disapprove (nc)

Middle of the road Americans witnessed the celebration of violence and ignorance that was the Republican debate last night and are sprinting back to Obama.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup:

44% Approve (+2)
50% Disapprove (nc)

Middle of the road Americans witnessed the celebration of violence and ignorance that was the Republican debate last night and are sprinting back to Obama.

How good were the TV ratings?
 
 The polling was from before the GOP debate. More likely it is the effect of the Debt Ceiling fiasco going onto the back burner.

The President gets to offer his proposals for jobs tonight... and that will get more viewers and likely have more influence upon the opinions of the electorate than will the GOP debate last night. 

[Tender Branson]

Exactly 1 year ago, Obama's approval rating at Gallup was 44-48 and 41-58 at Rasmussen.

Not really any movement. I expect that his ratings go up a bit in the next week due to the speech and the 9/11 rememberings.

[krazen1211]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/149351/Obama-Job-Approval-Sinks-New-Lows-Among-Whites-Hispanics.aspx

Obama Approval Sinks to New Lows Among Whites, Hispanics


He also received term-low monthly job approval ratings from both Hispanics (48%) and whites (33%) and tied his lowest rating from blacks (84%).




33% among whites is McGovern territory, lol.

[Lief]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/149351/Obama-Job-Approval-Sinks-New-Lows-Among-Whites-Hispanics.aspx

Obama Approval Sinks to New Lows Among Whites, Hispanics


He also received term-low monthly job approval ratings from both Hispanics (48%) and whites (33%) and tied his lowest rating from blacks (84%).




33% among whites is McGovern territory, lol.

Well it's a good thing for Republicans that the racial demographics in 2012 will be identical those in 1972.

[krazen1211]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/149351/Obama-Job-Approval-Sinks-New-Lows-Among-Whites-Hispanics.aspx

Obama Approval Sinks to New Lows Among Whites, Hispanics


He also received term-low monthly job approval ratings from both Hispanics (48%) and whites (33%) and tied his lowest rating from blacks (84%).




33% among whites is McGovern territory, lol.

Well it's a good thing for Republicans that the racial demographics in 2012 will be identical those in 1972.

How do you propose that any President can be elected with 33% of the white vote in 2012?

[State Comptroller Atkins]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/149351/Obama-Job-Approval-Sinks-New-Lows-Among-Whites-Hispanics.aspx

Obama Approval Sinks to New Lows Among Whites, Hispanics


He also received term-low monthly job approval ratings from both Hispanics (48%) and whites (33%) and tied his lowest rating from blacks (84%).




33% among whites is McGovern territory, lol.

Well it's a good thing for Republicans that the racial demographics in 2012 will be identical those in 1972.

How do you propose that any President can be elected with 33% of the white vote in 2012?

I guess it's also a good thing for Republicans that approval ratings always exactly match the percentage of the vote.

[J. J.]

Gallup:

44% Approve (+2)
50% Disapprove (nc)

Von Kluck has turned away from Paris and is heading for Compiègne (he might be back, however). 

Basically, Obama is out of his trough, though he could fall back into it.

[Iosif]

Nobody cares about Von Kluck you massive weirdo.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup:

44% Approve (+2)
50% Disapprove (nc)

Back to the area at which he has a good chance of winning.

[redcommander]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/149351/Obama-Job-Approval-Sinks-New-Lows-Among-Whites-Hispanics.aspx

Obama Approval Sinks to New Lows Among Whites, Hispanics


He also received term-low monthly job approval ratings from both Hispanics (48%) and whites (33%) and tied his lowest rating from blacks (84%).




33% among whites is McGovern territory, lol.

Well it's a good thing for Republicans that the racial demographics in 2012 will be identical those in 1972.

No, but don't exactly expect 67% of Hispanics to vote for Obama again, especially since it's almost a guarantee that either Rubio or Martinez will be the GOP VP choice. If they can get in the 40-45% range with Hispanics, the GOP could defeat Obama comfortably with the heavy level of white support they're likely to get.

[ag]

If they can get in the 40-45% range with Hispanics, the GOP could defeat Obama comfortably with the heavy level of white support they're likely to get.

If the grandma had balls, she'd be the grandpa. But she doesn't.

[J. J.]

Nobody cares about Von Kluck you massive weirdo.

It is an analogy.  Let me explain it to you:

Obama numbers go down.  Bad

Obama numbers go up.  Good

If you like Obama.

Von Kluck is like the bad numbers.  When some thing is like something else it is called an analogy.

[You kip if you want to...]

Nobody cares about Von Kluck you massive weirdo.

It is an analogy.  Let me explain it to you:

Obama numbers go down.  Bad

Obama numbers go up.  Good

If you like Obama.

Von Kluck is like the bad numbers.  When some thing is like something else it is called an analogy.

Nobody cares.

[J. J.]

Exactly 1 year ago, Obama's approval rating at Gallup was 44-48 and 41-58 at Rasmussen.

Not really any movement. I expect that his ratings go up a bit in the next week due to the speech and the 9/11 rememberings.

He was declining then.  

For Obama, these numbers are positive, because it might be stopping the decline (hence von Kluck's turn).

[J. J.]

Nobody cares about Von Kluck you massive weirdo.

It is an analogy.  Let me explain it to you:

Obama numbers go down.  Bad

Obama numbers go up.  Good

If you like Obama.

Von Kluck is like the bad numbers.  When some thing is like something else it is called an analogy.

Nobody cares.

You don't care that Obama's numbers are improving.  Okay. 

[King]

Obama numbers go down.  Bad

Obama numbers go up.  Good

Remarkable analysis.  I never thought of it like that before.

[J. J.]

Obama numbers go down.  Bad

Obama numbers go up.  Good

If you like Obama.

Remarkable analysis.  I never thought of it like that before.

You left out the key phase.

I was expecting Obama's numbers to crash at some point, but probably within the first two years of his term.  Most presidents do, if they will be re-elected.  By this point, however, they have started to improve.  Every president has rebounded from his lows, even those that got slaughtered.

Until now, Obama was not improving; he wasn't even stable.  He was just dropping.  Now, the numbers have finally started to move up.  It's not a lot, but it is the first sign.

You can use, "the wind shifted," "the tide is coming in," or "von Kluck has turned." but those are the analogy.  In this analogy, von Kluck represents the sentiment against Obama.

Von Kluck in real life, 97 years ago this week, was leading the German 1st Army against the French.  The original plan was for him to pass Paris to the north and attack it from the west.  Because of numerous factors, he got north of Paris, but turned east of Paris; the French attacked his flank and he ended up retreating.  It took the French a few days to figure out that he was turning.

Obama was (and still may be) in a trough, which his numbers declining.  That may have changed today.

If you support Obama, and you do, you want von Kluck to turn this soon.

[Sibboleth]

With his numbers, his obsessions, and his bizarre little rituals...

[krazen1211]

PPP

Obama trails Palin by 14 with independents in North Carolina, that's when you know you're having a bad month.
8 hours ago