The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -2.

Either a bad sample or Obama is improving.

[J. J.]

The 'bots did a head to head:

40%  Obama
43%  Romney

http://www.care2.com/causes/obama-leads-trails-in-new-polls.html

Obama vs. Perry to be out Friday. 

[Marston]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -2.

Either a bad sample or Obama is improving.

Could be the fact that he's finally wandered onto the right subject: jobs.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -2.

Either a bad sample or Obama is improving.

Could be the fact that he's finally wandered onto the right subject: jobs.

Or a bad sample.  We should know by Friday.

[The Vorlon]

Rasmussen has blipped up a couple points, Gallup has blipped down a couple points.

Everybody and their dog who who has done a poll recently has Obama between 42 and 45%, excepting the Internet folks (Planet Z, YouGov, etc) and Gallup which seems to be centered a couple points below the consensus average.

It's pretty easy to get fixated on the noise, but remembered the 19 out of 20 thing..

You expect one or two blips a month from a daily tracking poll

Obama is in the mid to upper part of the 40% to 45% band..... there is a bit of noise centered around this band...

[The Vorlon]

Could be the fact that he's finally wandered onto the right subject: jobs.

And only 970 days into his presidency.....  The chap is a quick learner, I'll give him that..

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, +1.

Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

[Tender Branson]

The strongly numbers are 23-40, not 23-44.

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, +1.

Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +4.

There probably is a bad sample in there because of the jump up in the strongly disapproved number.  It will probably drop out tomorrow.

The strongly numbers are 23-40, not 23-44.

That is a big gain from the recent nadir.  No conclusions, though.

[Tender Branson]

Gallup is going in the opposite direction once again:

39-53 today

[J. J.]

The strongly numbers are 23-40, not 23-44.

It showed up as a 23-43, a +4 gain, though, as noted, it looked like a bad sample.  It might have been wrong data entered, but it's now showing 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Missouri, PPP:

Missouri Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 43%
Disapprove...................................................... 53%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 43%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 45%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 47%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 43%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 47%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 48%
Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 7%

The sample voted more R than the state as a whole did in 2008, so it is good news for the President. 

Virginia, not so great...

Voters in Virginia, a key state in President Obama's 2008 winning coalition, disapprove 54 - 40 percent of the job he is doing, down from a 48 - 48 percent split in a June 30 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Obama does not deserve four more years, voters say 51 - 41 percent.

.....

In possible 2012 matchups, Obama has 44 percent to Perry's 42 percent, while Romney gets 44 percent to Obama's 42 percent, all too close to call. Obama does much better against two other Republicans, besting Bachmann 48 - 37 percent and Palin 50 - 35 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x5822.xml?ReleaseID=1644

I am not showing it, but any indication that President Obama would lose the youth vote in 2012 doesn't show here.

It is two different pollsters, but Romney wins Virginia but Perry loses it, and Perry wins North Carolina but Romney loses it.  The Republican nominee needs to win both Virginia and North Carolina to have a real chance of winning the Presidency.







Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest):

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 63
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    80
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 76
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 54
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   26




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 54
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    104
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 89
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but one to whom he loses 37
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  41
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  35  

[Jackson]

You know, there comes a time when a graphic conveys too much information to be legible. You have reached that point.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, u.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

A slight improvement over the last week.

[J. J.]

Gallup:

Approve: 39, u

Disapprove:  52, -1

I kind of think it is a bad sample.  We should know by Sunday.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

Gallup:

Approve: 39, u

Disapprove:  52, -1

I kind of think it is a bad sample.  We should know by Sunday.

Where's the "meh"? 

[pbrower2a]

You know, there comes a time when a graphic conveys too much information to be legible. You have reached that point.

Here's one alternative of my creation, and you will see that it shows little less (useful and current) information with much less garishness. It doesn't show approvals, though, but I can;t be sure that approval means the same thing to every pollster.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=140886.0

Oh -- www.electoralvote.com has just been restarted, and its operator is far more adept than I am at showing what I have been showing. I don't expect to compete with that site, which is my inspiration, here once its operator gets active.  

[J. J.]

Gallup:

Approve: 39, u

Disapprove:  52, -1

I kind of think it is a bad sample.  We should know by Sunday.

Where's the "meh"? 

I forgot, but since I said it was a bad sample ..... 

Gallup only serves one purpose, historical comparisons.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, -1.

Disapprove 55%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +2.

One thing to note is that Obama has improved slightly on "strongly approved" in the last week.

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  39%, u.

Disapprove:  53%, +1.

Either a bad sample size, or Obama is back in the trough.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, u.

Disapprove 55%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.

I'll be unavailable after mid week, if someone wants to do this.

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  40%, +1.

Disapprove:  53%, +1.

Well, he's not slipping.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, u.

Disapprove 54%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, u.

I'll be unavailable after mid week, if someone wants to do this.

[pbrower2a]

Magellan (R), PA -- 44/47 approval, but the President has huge margins awaiting him over both Perry and Romney.  Clearly up from a recent nadir.

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Magellan-Pennsylvania-2012-General-Election-Survey-Release-0919111.pdf

WA, Strategies 360 (new)

More than a year out from the 2012 election, the poll shows Obama beating Perry, the Texas governor, 51-37. Against Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, Obama is up 49-40.

The president captured almost 58 percent of the Washington vote in 2008.

49 percent said they approve of the job Obama is doing as president.

I am guessing that that is a tie.

CT, Quinnipiac, 48-48, but President Obama trounces both Perry and Romney

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1646

Again, this is at a nadir, but Republicans seem not to be taking effective advantage of the low approval rating of the President.







Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest):

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 56
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    74
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 95
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 83
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 53
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 54
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   26




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 54
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    92
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 101
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but one to whom he loses 37
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  41
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  35  

[Tender Branson]

Nevada (Public Opinion Strategies):

42% Approve
55% Disapprove

The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted Sept. 14-15 by Public Opinion Strategies. The Retail Association of Nevada, a conservative business and lobbying group active in Carson City, has commissioned five polls, approximately every six months. The poll has a margin of error of 4.38 percentage points.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2011/sep/20/poll-nevada-voters-prefer-higher-taxes-spending-cu/