The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[5280/East California]

pbrower needs to include those polls in his inaccurate map.

[pbrower2a]

I am no longer updating this map. I have a new one on margins between the President and his two most likely challengers (Perry and Romney). Of you look at those two maps you will see far less gobbledygook with no loss of relevance. 

I am no longer satisfied that approval ratings are meaningful between pollsters; some pollsters are more effective effective at eliciting an opinion out of people than are others. If the President gets a 42% approval rating in one state from one pollster and leads both Perry and Romney and another pollster shows a 47% approval for the President and leads over both main candidates, then does one have a different idea of how well the President is doing?  I think not.

The rules may have changed for the 2012 election in one respect: that people might be dissatisfied with the performance of the President for inability to get legislation passed and for overall economic failure -- yet give more culpability to Republican politicians, some of whom (let alone their groupies) have done some very offensive stuff.   All Presidential elections have some unique features, but this one shapes itself as one of the most freakish in American history.

Furthermore I am no longer satisfied that a lead of President Obama over someone like Gingrich, Bachmann, or Palin means anything anymore any more than a lead of John McCain over John Edwards was relevant at a certain point. Gingrich, Palin, and Bachmann had their chances and have blown them.   

Besides, the webmaster of www.electoral-vote.com has shown an intention to restart his website for the 2012 election.  No way can I approach his resources.

[Joe Republic]

I am no longer updating this map.

Thank.  Smurf.

[BigSkyBob]

Do you support or oppose requiring girls entering the 6th grade to be vaccinated against the human papilloma virus, also known as HPV?

22% Support (27% D, 17% R, 21% I)
57% Oppose (51% D, 64% R, 56% I)

I am astonished the opposition figure is so high, even among Democrats and Independents.

I think if you changed the question a little you would see the figures flip.

Indeed. The implication of the question is mandatory, no opt-outs. Even I would disapprove.

Well that's a bit more of a reasonable explanation of the figures, then, I guess. I certainly hope that a re-wording would result in an entirely different set of figures.

How about, "Do you support, or oppose, mandating vaccinating girls entering the 6th grade against some, but not all, of the strains of HPV?"

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen:

45% Approve [+1]
53% Disapprove [-1]

PPP/DailyKos/SEIU weekly poll:

42% Approve [nc]
54% Disapprove [+1]

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, -1.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.

Not much change.  I'm back from an undisclosed location, with palm trees.

[The Vorlon]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, -1.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.

Not much change.  I'm back from an undisclosed location, with palm trees.

Welcome back...

Palm trees... hmmmm.....

Gallup back to 39+ / 51-

RCP average steady as a rock at 43/51 or so.

Some movement beneath the top lines.

Obama is somewhat firming up his base, the most liberal parts of the Dem coalition are starting to get back in line, which is masking a continued erosion among independents if you look simply at the top line numbers.  This is why Rasmussen is going in the wrong direction as everybody else because his hard weighs trail reality by an average of 45 days.

Obama's "favorability" (as opposed to job approval) is eroding fairly badly, which is not a good sign for him.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, -1.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.

Not much change.  I'm back from an undisclosed location, with palm trees.

Welcome back...

Palm trees... hmmmm.....

Gallup back to 39+ / 51-

RCP average steady as a rock at 43/51 or so.

Some movement beneath the top lines.

Obama is somewhat firming up his base, the most liberal parts of the Dem coalition are starting to get back in line, which is masking a continued erosion among independents if you look simply at the top line numbers.  This is why Rasmussen is going in the wrong direction as everybody else because his hard weighs trail reality by an average of 45 days.

Obama's "favorability" (as opposed to job approval) is eroding fairly badly, which is not a good sign for him.

Hispanics are at 51 but yes, independents are way down.

Yes, palm trees, high humidity, thunderstorms, and lizards.  West coast of Florida.  You should be able to guess the hotel where I was staying.  I'll have to post a photo. 

[pbrower2a]

Florida Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 46%
Disapprove...................................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%

President Obama can win Florida's 29 electoral votes -- see below to see what the "add 6%" rule applies for an incumbent President. In view of some of the abysmal ratings of approval of the President in Florida in recent weeks, this could signal a huge improvement in the prospects of the re-election of the President. The President apparently doesn't need Florida to win, but any Republican nominee absolutely must win Florida to become President.

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 44%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

Ron Paul is not going to win the Republican nomination. Pure libertarians may be becoming more popular than the corporatist/fundamentalist coalition even if they have yet to consolidate the power of fundraising.

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 43%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

This is almost the margin by which President Obama won Colorado in 2008. Such suggests a 53-46 split of the national popular vote with the President winning about 400 electoral votes. 

Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 45%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

Virtual tie.

Q13 Do you agree or disagree with the following
statement: “Social Security is a Ponzi
Scheme.”
Agree .............................................................. 25%
Disagree ......................................................... 63%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Perry should never gave brought up that canard. It is clearly a losing proposition in Florida, a state that a Republican nominee absolutely dares not lose.

Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 45%
Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 7%

The polled electorate looks much like that of 2008 in composition.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_0929925.pdf

I have a pair of simpler and more legible maps in the "margins" thread.

By the way,

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, -1.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.

The PPP poll for Florida is remarkably consistent with the Rasmussen nationwide poll.

[pbrower2a]

Here are my current margins for polls beginning August 24 or so. Only the latest poll counts -- and no internal polls or polls commissioned by ethnic advocacy groups (example: NAACP, but they don't commission polls), labor unions, or trade associations.

An Obama lead is in red, a lead for the Republican (for now only Perry and Romney) will appear in blue, and a tie in white. These maps show the margins as

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.

 
Obama vs. Perry



Obama vs. Romney



With guesses based on prior voting behavior of states (orange for President Obama, green for the Republican)

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%

anything 5% or higher will be shown with a shade of 50% in part because I  have at most a guess and because anything higher than 50% saturation looks bad on the map.

Obama vs. Perry



*ME districts should be shaded in dark orange and NE-02 in pale orange.




Obama vs. Romney



* ME districts should appear in dark orange.

...Don't expect to see more of the bottom two maps.

[The Vorlon]

For Fox News

http://www.foxnews.com/interactive/politics/2011/09/29/fox-news-poll-obamas-job-performance-if-were-ceo/

Bipartisan poll conducted by:
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)

The poll is based on live telephone interviews with a national sample of 925
registered voters, and was conducted September 25-27, 2011 in the evenings.

Democrats (n = 382)
Republicans (n = 338)
Independents (n = 189)

Job Approval = 43+ / 51- (-8 net)  -1 / +4 from previous poll

Independants 31%+ / 55%- (-24% net)

Imagine for a moment that instead of being president of the United States for the past few years that Barack Obama had been the president of a major U.S. company. Based on Obama’s job performance, do you think the board of directors and shareholders would have fired him by now or would he still be in charge of the company?

Fired by now 52%
Still in charge 38%
(Don’t know) 10%

Which comes closer to your view -- the government’s loan to Solyndra was based on unethical behavior OR was it a good faith loan that went bad?

All RVs

Unethical Behavior:       46%
Good Faith Loan that went bad:  46%

Independants

Unethical Behavior:       51%
Good Faith Loan that went bad:  38%

Interestingly...21% of GOPers give Obama the benefit of the doubt here.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, +1.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  39%, u.

Disapprove:  52%, +1.


Von Kluck is back at the gates of Amiens.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, u.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.

[izixs]

I still find it excessively odd how different Rass and Gallup trend. I know a good deal of it is with their weighting schemes, but still.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +1.

[The Vorlon]

I still find it excessively odd how different Rass and Gallup trend. I know a good deal of it is with their weighting schemes, but still.

Rasmussen and Gallup are, methodologically, just about as far apart as two polls can be.

Today Rasmussen is -10 (+44/-54) and Gallup is -6 (+43/-49)

Been quite a while since Gallup was above Rasmussen for an extended period of time.

We shall see

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, -1.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -2.

And Gallup, meh:

Approve:  43%

Disapprove:  49%

[krazen1211]

Obama under 50% in Illinois

http://www.myfoxchicago.com/dpp/news/politics/illinois-obama-approval-rating-poll-romney-home-state-perry-cain-presidential-2012-reelection-20111003

Do you approve of the job President Obama is doing?

Approve: 49.81%
Disapprove: 46.23%
Neutral: 3.96%

If the election were held today and the candidates were Obama and Christie, for whom would you vote?

Obama: 52.69%
Christie: 33.89%
Unsure: 13.42%
Obama or Cain?

Obama: 52.85%
Cain: 30.36%
Unsure: 16.79%
Obama or Perry?

Obama: 52.35%
Perry: 30.20%
Unsure: 17.46%
Obama or Romney?

Obama: 50.26%
Romney: 34.79%
Unsure: 14.95%
 Downstate voters rate Obama job performance:

Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 57%
Suburban ("collar") county voters rate Obama job performance:

Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 55%



Good to see those deep negatives in the collar counties.

[Minnesota Mike]

Obama under 50% in Illinois

http://www.myfoxchicago.com/dpp/news/politics/illinois-obama-approval-rating-poll-romney-home-state-perry-cain-presidential-2012-reelection-20111003

Do you approve of the job President Obama is doing?

Approve: 49.81%
Disapprove: 46.23%
Neutral: 3.96%

If the election were held today and the candidates were Obama and Christie, for whom would you vote?

Obama: 52.69%
Christie: 33.89%
Unsure: 13.42%
Obama or Cain?

Obama: 52.85%
Cain: 30.36%
Unsure: 16.79%
Obama or Perry?

Obama: 52.35%
Perry: 30.20%
Unsure: 17.46%
Obama or Romney?

Obama: 50.26%
Romney: 34.79%
Unsure: 14.95%
 Downstate voters rate Obama job performance:

Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 57%
Suburban ("collar") county voters rate Obama job performance:

Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 55%



Good to see those deep negatives in the collar counties.

A poll down to 1/100th of 1 percent?  Ok.

[Secretary Polnut]

and not a single GOPer over 35%... approvals mean nothing when you're against this bunch.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.

[freepcrusher]

Obama under 50% in Illinois

http://www.myfoxchicago.com/dpp/news/politics/illinois-obama-approval-rating-poll-romney-home-state-perry-cain-presidential-2012-reelection-20111003

Do you approve of the job President Obama is doing?

Approve: 49.81%
Disapprove: 46.23%
Neutral: 3.96%

If the election were held today and the candidates were Obama and Christie, for whom would you vote?

Obama: 52.69%
Christie: 33.89%
Unsure: 13.42%
Obama or Cain?

Obama: 52.85%
Cain: 30.36%
Unsure: 16.79%
Obama or Perry?

Obama: 52.35%
Perry: 30.20%
Unsure: 17.46%
Obama or Romney?

Obama: 50.26%
Romney: 34.79%
Unsure: 14.95%
 Downstate voters rate Obama job performance:

Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 57%
Suburban ("collar") county voters rate Obama job performance:

Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 55%



Good to see those deep negatives in the collar counties.

your point being what? Obama still wins the state under your poll.

[Ben Romney]

Do you think Barack Obama should be re-elected president or do you think it's time to elect a new person to do better?" - voters in this crucial 2012 battleground state chose anybody-but-Obama by a margin of 50-43 percent



From The Detroit News: http://detnews.com/article/20111005/MIVIEW/110040433/Mitchell-poll--Michigan-wants--Not-Obama-#ixzz1ZujWq4Rx

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42, -2.

Disapprove 56%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.


It is a very bad sign for Obama when his Approve number is lower than his Strongly Disapprove number.  This might, however, just be a bad sample.