The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While I could have discounted the prior numbers as a bad sample, this probably isn't one so close to the last.  It looks like there is some, perhaps major, decline in Obama's numbers.

We'll see what happens with Gallup.

[The Vorlon]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While I could have discounted the prior numbers as a bad sample, this probably isn't one so close to the last.  It looks like there is some, perhaps major, decline in Obama's numbers.

We'll see what happens with Gallup.

A big chunk of Obama's "mini surge" in Rasmussen (when he got back up to the 45%-46% range for a few days) was likely just an artifact of Rasmussen's "likely voter" screen and the fact his partisan ID weights have a long time base.

When ever Obama "goes on the offensive" and tosses out some "red meat" to the Democratic base, a % of then get more enthusiastic and interested in all things political, and thus are deemed more "likely" in Rasmussen's screening and hence more likely to make it into the sample pool.

Close in to an election (say +/- 90 days out or less) Likely voters are clearly the way the poll, but 14 months out they actually tend to be a bit more volatile than a RV poll.

Regarding "some, perhaps major, decline in Obama's numbers".. On May 25th, 2011 Obama was +10.1% on the RCP average of approval polls...  Today (despite a Ra^ther interesting CBS sample showing 44/44) Obama is at -9.6% - This is a net shift of 20% in 4 months.... that is not a "decline" that is a meltdown.....  That is Richard Nixon post Watergate territory.

What is perhaps even more important than the raw approval is the favorability numbers.  This far out, job approval goes up and down with the events of the day, but favorability (essentially, "do ya like the guy") has turned to a net negative.



When (almost) a majority of the electorate just don't like you, you're in deep doo-doo....

32.7% approval on the economy (also on an implosion trendline) - These numbers are starting to look really ugly....

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42, u.

Disapprove 55%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

Since October 1, there has been some erosion in Obama's numbers, but not a big drop.

The "mini surge" lasted a few weeks, perhaps a month.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, +2.

Disapprove 54%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.

[Tender Branson]

Daily Kos/SEIU Weekly State of the Nation Poll:

44% Approve (+3)
50% Disapprove (-4)

Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of the Occupy Wall Street movement, or have you not heard of it?

35% Favorable
31% Unfavorable
19% Neutral
14% Haven't heard of it

Public Policy Polling, 1000 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, October 6, 2011 - October 9, 2011.

http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/10/6

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, +1.

Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, _+2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -1.

[pbrower2a]

Daily Kos/SEIU Weekly State of the Nation Poll:

44% Approve (+3)
50% Disapprove (-4)

Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of the Occupy Wall Street movement, or have you not heard of it?

35% Favorable
31% Unfavorable
19% Neutral
14% Haven't heard of it

Public Policy Polling, 1000 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, October 6, 2011 - October 9, 2011.

http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/10/6

It certainly beats the Tea Party Movement. Maybe it is because the Tea Party is organized and guided by the Establishment, or at least parts of it.

   

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, +1.
Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -1.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47, +2.

Disapprove 52%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +2.

I think an overly pro-Obama sample is moving through the the sample.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like Obama's approval is slightly on the rise.

Only Gallup still looks like on crack.

[J. J.]

Looks like Obama's approval is slightly on the rise.

Only Gallup still looks like on crack.

Strongly Disapprove is up two.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47, u.

Disapprove 53%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

[Tender Branson]

Gallup must be really taking drugs or something.

38-54 today, when every other pollster now has him between 43% and 47% approval.

[The Vorlon]

Gallup must be really taking drugs or something.

38-54 today, when every other pollster now has him between 43% and 47% approval.

Gallup runs off on it's own now and then (in both directions)

Gallup's survey methods are actually very good, so good in fact that they reach a big chunk of the electorate that other firms rarely get to in their sample design.

This hard to reach part of the population tends to swing very wildly as they tend to be quite apolitical and react more to the news of the day than any defined political leanings.

Right now there is a bit of a negative air about Obama, and Gallup reflects this.  If Obama has a few good weeks, things will swing 15 points the other direction.

But yes, the bloom is definitely off the rose with respect to Gallup.  They were the Gold Standard, now they are just a quirky member of the pack.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, -1.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.

[Mehmentum]

Gallup must be really taking drugs or something.

38-54 today, when every other pollster now has him between 43% and 47% approval.

Yeah, when Rasmussen has Obama with significantly better approvals than Gallup... well you know something has gone horribly wrong.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

A slightly pro-Obama sample dropped.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43, -2.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.

The bad sample dropped.

Today is 1000th day of the Obama presidency.

[kingthlayer]

Wow, 1,000 days! Time sure does go by fast.

Gallup:

Approve: 42% +2

Disapprove: 50% -2

Still seems to be fluctuating on his lows on Gallup. 

[J. J.]

Wow, 1,000 days! Time sure does go by fast.

Gallup:

Approve: 42% +2

Disapprove: 50% -2

Still seems to be fluctuating on his lows on Gallup. 

I'm looking to see if Obama starts tracking consistently below 40% on Gallup.

[Democratic Hawk]

I've still got a lot of time for this president

[kingthlayer]

Wow, 1,000 days! Time sure does go by fast.

Gallup:

Approve: 42% +2

Disapprove: 50% -2

Still seems to be fluctuating on his lows on Gallup. 

I'm looking to see if Obama starts tracking consistently below 40% on Gallup.

I doubt it will happen. There are plenty of pro-recession Republicans around here who will push his approval ratings up should we double dip.

[J. J.]

Wow, 1,000 days! Time sure does go by fast.

Gallup:

Approve: 42% +2

Disapprove: 50% -2

Still seems to be fluctuating on his lows on Gallup. 

I'm looking to see if Obama starts tracking consistently below 40% on Gallup.

I doubt it will happen. There are plenty of pro-recession Republicans around here who will push his approval ratings up should we double dip.

We already had it over the summer.  If it occurs within a year of the election, it is probably fatal.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, +1.

Disapprove 55%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -2.

It is from their text; it is not up on the chart yet.

[BigSkyBob]

Gallup, Obama:

approval     38%
disapproval 54%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx