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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8950 on: October 07, 2011, 03:53:47 pm »
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1. You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity.
2. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving.
3. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else.
4. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.
5. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that is the beginning of the end of any nation.

Source?

1. You create misery by legislation that eases the transfer of wealth to a few at the expense of everyone else.

2. Did you ever hear of disability insurance?

3. As if the government were the economic equivalent of a black hole. Government might not create wealth directly, but it might facilitate wealth with the creation of value. Wealth that does not flow, unless it creates wealth, does little good.

4. Have you ever heard of the marginal utility of income? A thousand dollars might do much good for some pauper with rotting teeth, but little for someone who owns millions of dollars.

5. Wealth created with the aid of the lash or under the threat of the noose is a sham.
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« Reply #8951 on: October 08, 2011, 12:47:04 am »
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I have been looking at the 18 month/12 month period prior to the election. 

The one with the lowest low number to win reelection was Clinton in 1996; he had 42% approval in January 1996.

The one with the highest low number to lose reelection was Ford, with a low of 39% in December 1975.

Note that GHWB's collapsed in the spring of 1992 and I think he bottomed at 29%.

I've generally thought that if Obama consistently got below 40%, it could be over.

Incumbents due tend to bounce back a lot closer.  Carter's 12 month low prior to the election was 31% and he gained about 9 points.  Reagan was at 43% in May of 1983 and gained about 16 points.

But, prior Presidents took their pain early and timed the peak of attempts to stimulate the economy to coincide with an election year. Obama tried to avoid the pain early, and is mired in a Japanese-style slump as a result.

Different scenario. President Obama came in when a full-blown economic meltdown reminiscent in many ways of that that began in September 1929. He addressed it by the book. The meltdown that had begun in September 2007 came to an end in the equivalent of February or March 1931 instead of in the equivalent of late 1933.

The appropriate comparisons are to the 1930s and not to any later times. President Obama would have approval ratings in the teens by now had he taken deflationary measures at the start of his administration... but that would be the least of anyone's problems, especially with even higher unemployment, a far greater number of corporate failures, and huge.reductions in living standards. The get-rich-quick schemes that marked American economic life from about 1981 to 2007 can no longer work.  

Everything you noted is irrelevant. What is relevent is that the electorate treats Presidents like football coaches. If a coach wins, they keep him. If a coach loses, he's gone. Football coaches are judged by their last season, and Presidents are judged by how the economy is doing early in the Presidential year. You can write at length about the totality of the circumstances, but, the reality is the electorate correctly presumes that politicians are lying to them, and merely judges current results.

Taking the pain early might not have been the politically expedient thing for Obama to do, but, it was what he ought to have done. Reagan took the pain early, and, he was able to claim "morning in America." Obama tried zombie juice. He will have to live with "mourning in America."
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« Reply #8952 on: October 08, 2011, 12:59:58 am »
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I have been looking at the 18 month/12 month period prior to the election. 

The one with the lowest low number to win reelection was Clinton in 1996; he had 42% approval in January 1996.

The one with the highest low number to lose reelection was Ford, with a low of 39% in December 1975.

Note that GHWB's collapsed in the spring of 1992 and I think he bottomed at 29%.

I've generally thought that if Obama consistently got below 40%, it could be over.

Incumbents due tend to bounce back a lot closer.  Carter's 12 month low prior to the election was 31% and he gained about 9 points.  Reagan was at 43% in May of 1983 and gained about 16 points.

But, prior Presidents took their pain early and timed the peak of attempts to stimulate the economy to coincide with an election year. Obama tried to avoid the pain early, and is mired in a Japanese-style slump as a result.

Those numbers were all in the 18 months prior to the election.  I'm comparing apples to apples.

Certainly, temporally you are correct. It is also true that Reagan's policies of wringing inflation out of the system resulted in pain early, and prosperity later. There is no reason to presume Obama's policies of "stimulus" will follow the same curve between now and early next year.

Quote


It should be noted that this was a major outlier from Gallup; network polls from roughly the same period showed Clinton at 50% and 53% (scroll down), though it declined into the high forties later in the month (second gov't shutdown?).

That 39% for Ford could have been an outllier as well.
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« Reply #8953 on: October 08, 2011, 01:04:47 am »
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 The get-rich-quick schemes that marked American economic life from about  1963  1981 to 2007 2011 can no longer work.  


I corrected your typos for you Smiley













1. You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity.
2. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving.
3. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else.

Umm, the right to walk the streets at night without fear?

Quote
4. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.
5. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that is the beginning of the end of any nation.
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« Reply #8954 on: October 08, 2011, 12:06:10 pm »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43, +1.

Disapprove 55%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.


If this is a bad sample, it should drop tomorrow.  Two things to look at on tomorrow's poll:

A.  Is Disapprove below 56%?

B.  Is Strongly Disapprove still higher than Approve?

Either, or both, could indicate a strong decline in Obama's numbers.


Bad sample.
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J. J.

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« Reply #8955 on: October 08, 2011, 12:23:23 pm »
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We're almost getting in range when we can say that he'll be a first term president, unless there's a seismic economic recovery within the next year.

Frankly, I think he's done for already. I just don't see how he's going to get his numbers close to 50%, and remain there on a consistent basis. He has 13 months; time is starting to run out. 
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« Reply #8956 on: October 08, 2011, 01:12:04 pm »
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We're almost getting in range when we can say that he'll be a first term president, unless there's a seismic economic recovery within the next year.

Frankly, I think he's done for already. I just don't see how he's going to get his numbers close to 50%, and remain there on a consistent basis. He has 13 months; time is starting to run out. 

The rules are very different for economic hard times that are clearly not the fault of the President, are blamed upon a prior President or on foreigners, and have no obvious cure except what the President proposes. FDR got re-elected in very hard times -- the Great Depression and the Second World War. Three times!

There is no quick return to non-recession times. The GOP is giving America what it considers an offer that it can't refuse but is giving instead an offer that it can't accept. Few people want greater hardships for themselves on behalf of people that they have little cause to trust. The GOP won big in 2010 by sugar-coating a raw deal for the American people. The sugar-coating has washed away.

Wage cuts for oneself and tax cuts for someone else -- essentially the rigid GOP offer -- can't be offered anew with sugar-coating in 2012 with a reasonable chance of acceptance. Now here is the bigger question: must the President become a demagogue to be re-elected? I hope not! Demagogues fare well politically in hard times. It is far easier to cast blame than to offer solutions. We are in no ordinary recession. Doing what got us into this very nasty recession -- the Lesser Depression -- is a non-solution; people just won't respond. There won't be a fresh real-estate boom for about twenty years, and the predatory lending and dishonest underwriting of what have proved bad loans will repel people much as two north poles of magnets repel each other. The GOP solution of doing what got us into the Great Depression is even less attractive except to those who expect new opportunities to get good stuff at distressed prices.   
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J. J.
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« Reply #8957 on: October 08, 2011, 08:53:29 pm »
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We're almost getting in range when we can say that he'll be a first term president, unless there's a seismic economic recovery within the next year.

Frankly, I think he's done for already. I just don't see how he's going to get his numbers close to 50%, and remain there on a consistent basis. He has 13 months; time is starting to run out. 

I think the key phase is "time is starting to run out."  Other president have gained 11 or more points on Gallup this far out, but most were off their lows.
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« Reply #8958 on: October 08, 2011, 10:41:25 pm »
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We're almost getting in range when we can say that he'll be a first term president, unless there's a seismic economic recovery within the next year.

Frankly, I think he's done for already. I just don't see how he's going to get his numbers close to 50%, and remain there on a consistent basis. He has 13 months; time is starting to run out. 

The rules are very different for economic hard times that are clearly not the fault of the President, are blamed upon a prior President or on foreigners, and have no obvious cure except what the President proposes. FDR got re-elected in very hard times -- the Great Depression and the Second World War. Three times!

There is no quick return to non-recession times. The GOP is giving America what it considers an offer that it can't refuse but is giving instead an offer that it can't accept. Few people want greater hardships for themselves on behalf of people that they have little cause to trust. The GOP won big in 2010 by sugar-coating a raw deal for the American people. The sugar-coating has washed away.

Wage cuts for oneself and tax cuts for someone else -- essentially the rigid GOP offer -- can't be offered anew with sugar-coating in 2012 with a reasonable chance of acceptance. Now here is the bigger question: must the President become a demagogue to be re-elected? I hope not! Demagogues fare well politically in hard times. It is far easier to cast blame than to offer solutions. We are in no ordinary recession. Doing what got us into this very nasty recession -- the Lesser Depression -- is a non-solution; people just won't respond. There won't be a fresh real-estate boom for about twenty years, and the predatory lending and dishonest underwriting of what have proved bad loans will repel people much as two north poles of magnets repel each other. The GOP solution of doing what got us into the Great Depression is even less attractive except to those who expect new opportunities to get good stuff at distressed prices.   

Keep in mind that in 1940, FDR was losing on the economy and won reelection only because of Europe. We are far closer to a situation of a President "having inherited a situation and failed to successfully resolve it" such as most people thought in 1940, then we are to 1936 and "the President having inherited a bad economy and is struggling to bring us back, but it takes time".

Also, once again your analysis of the political situation in the campaign is extremely slanted because of your personal interpretation of events and ideologies seeping in.

Is the President going to demagogue? He has no other choice, other than to concede the election. His only path to victory is to define his opponent as a nutcase (Cain, Perry, Bachman, or Paul) or a stiff necked businessman who took perverse pleasure in putting working class Americans in the unemployment line (Romney, Cain and Huntsman).

And he has already been engaging in this activity since 2008. He essentially ran on a campaign of "everyone who disagrees with me is part of the problem and have no place in the new page of American history which I am going to create". The only plan to implement such a drastic change in American political dialogue, that he was capable of engaging in, was to remove his opponents from the conversation, somehow. Most likely through demagogery as being, "part of the old politics". Which probably would have worked as long as Obama's approvals stayed over 60% and independents loved him. He had no experience doing grand bargains on a major issue, and he had no real good working relationships with people on capitol hill, even amongst Democrats. It seems Reid and Pelosi thought him as a good way to stop Hillary from coming in and "taking over" what they worked so hard to put together in 2006. But some of their actions seem to indicate a lack of high regard for Obama. Especially now that has done what they feared Hillary would cause, the loss of the majority.
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« Reply #8959 on: October 09, 2011, 11:41:31 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While I could have discounted the prior numbers as a bad sample, this probably isn't one so close to the last.  It looks like there is some, perhaps major, decline in Obama's numbers.

We'll see what happens with Gallup.

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« Reply #8960 on: October 09, 2011, 12:35:20 pm »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While I could have discounted the prior numbers as a bad sample, this probably isn't one so close to the last.  It looks like there is some, perhaps major, decline in Obama's numbers.

We'll see what happens with Gallup.



A big chunk of Obama's "mini surge" in Rasmussen (when he got back up to the 45%-46% range for a few days) was likely just an artifact of Rasmussen's "likely voter" screen and the fact his partisan ID weights have a long time base.

When ever Obama "goes on the offensive" and tosses out some "red meat" to the Democratic base, a % of then get more enthusiastic and interested in all things political, and thus are deemed more "likely" in Rasmussen's screening and hence more likely to make it into the sample pool.

Close in to an election (say +/- 90 days out or less) Likely voters are clearly the way the poll, but 14 months out they actually tend to be a bit more volatile than a RV poll.

Regarding "some, perhaps major, decline in Obama's numbers".. On May 25th, 2011 Obama was +10.1% on the RCP average of approval polls...  Today (despite a Rather interesting CBS sample showing 44/44) Obama is at -9.6% - This is a net shift of 20% in 4 months.... that is not a "decline" that is a meltdown.....  That is Richard Nixon post Watergate territory.

What is perhaps even more important than the raw approval is the favorability numbers.  This far out, job approval goes up and down with the events of the day, but favorability (essentially, "do ya like the guy") has turned to a net negative.



When (almost) a majority of the electorate just don't like you, you're in deep doo-doo....

32.7% approval on the economy (also on an implosion trendline) - These numbers are starting to look really ugly....

« Last Edit: October 09, 2011, 12:39:49 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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« Reply #8961 on: October 10, 2011, 08:56:11 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42, u.

Disapprove 55%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

Since October 1, there has been some erosion in Obama's numbers, but not a big drop.

The "mini surge" lasted a few weeks, perhaps a month.
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« Reply #8962 on: October 11, 2011, 09:27:16 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, +2.

Disapprove 54%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.

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« Reply #8963 on: October 11, 2011, 11:20:44 am »
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Daily Kos/SEIU Weekly State of the Nation Poll:

44% Approve (+3)
50% Disapprove (-4)

Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of the Occupy Wall Street movement, or have you not heard of it?

35% Favorable
31% Unfavorable
19% Neutral
14% Haven't heard of it

Public Policy Polling, 1000 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, October 6, 2011 - October 9, 2011.

http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/10/6
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« Reply #8964 on: October 12, 2011, 09:04:20 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, +1.

Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, _+2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -1.


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J. J.

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« Reply #8965 on: October 12, 2011, 10:28:25 am »
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Daily Kos/SEIU Weekly State of the Nation Poll:

44% Approve (+3)
50% Disapprove (-4)

Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of the Occupy Wall Street movement, or have you not heard of it?

35% Favorable
31% Unfavorable
19% Neutral
14% Haven't heard of it

Public Policy Polling, 1000 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, October 6, 2011 - October 9, 2011.

http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/10/6

It certainly beats the Tea Party Movement. Maybe it is because the Tea Party is organized and guided by the Establishment, or at least parts of it.

   
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« Reply #8966 on: October 12, 2011, 11:21:46 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, +1.
Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -1.
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« Reply #8967 on: October 13, 2011, 10:04:27 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47, +2.

Disapprove 52%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +2.

I think an overly pro-Obama sample is moving through the the sample.
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« Reply #8968 on: October 13, 2011, 01:02:27 pm »
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Looks like Obama's approval is slightly on the rise.

Only Gallup still looks like on crack.
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« Reply #8969 on: October 13, 2011, 04:19:25 pm »
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Looks like Obama's approval is slightly on the rise.

Only Gallup still looks like on crack.

Strongly Disapprove is up two.
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« Reply #8970 on: October 14, 2011, 09:05:59 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47, u.

Disapprove 53%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

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« Reply #8971 on: October 14, 2011, 12:03:33 pm »
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Gallup must be really taking drugs or something.

38-54 today, when every other pollster now has him between 43% and 47% approval.
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« Reply #8972 on: October 14, 2011, 12:46:14 pm »
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Gallup must be really taking drugs or something.

38-54 today, when every other pollster now has him between 43% and 47% approval.

Gallup runs off on it's own now and then (in both directions)

Gallup's survey methods are actually very good, so good in fact that they reach a big chunk of the electorate that other firms rarely get to in their sample design.

This hard to reach part of the population tends to swing very wildly as they tend to be quite apolitical and react more to the news of the day than any defined political leanings.

Right now there is a bit of a negative air about Obama, and Gallup reflects this.  If Obama has a few good weeks, things will swing 15 points the other direction.

But yes, the bloom is definitely off the rose with respect to Gallup.  They were the Gold Standard, now they are just a quirky member of the pack.

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« Reply #8973 on: October 15, 2011, 09:42:49 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, -1.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.


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« Reply #8974 on: October 15, 2011, 09:18:48 pm »
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Gallup must be really taking drugs or something.

38-54 today, when every other pollster now has him between 43% and 47% approval.
Yeah, when Rasmussen has Obama with significantly better approvals than Gallup... well you know something has gone horribly wrong.
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