Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 31, 2014, 06:34:27 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 359 360 361 362 363 [364] 365 366 367 368 369 ... 410 Print
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 658356 times)
You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8606
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #9075 on: November 13, 2011, 09:51:09 am »
Ignore

JJ seems to be absent, so:

Rasmussen:

48% Approve (+1)
51% Disapprove (-1)

22% Strongly Approve (nc)
38% Strongly Disapprove (-1)

Could BHO be above water by next Sunday, or atleast have broke even for a day or so, do we think?
Logged

J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32028
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9076 on: November 13, 2011, 07:46:08 pm »
Ignore

I'll try to get back tomorrow.

Obama was at 43% on Gallup, which is survivable. 
Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 33367
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #9077 on: November 14, 2011, 09:51:38 am »
Ignore

JJ seems to be absent, so:

Rasmussen:

48% Approve (+1)
51% Disapprove (-1)

22% Strongly Approve (nc)
38% Strongly Disapprove (-1)

Could BHO be above water by next Sunday, or atleast have broke even for a day or so, do we think?

You got it right:

Rasmussen:

50% Approve (+2)
49% Disapprove (-2)

23% Strongly Approve (+1)
38% Strongly Disapprove (nc)

"Thatís the first time since June that the president has reached the 50% mark."

New numbers for a match-up with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and President Obama will be released today at noon Eastern.

Tomorrow, we will release updated numbers on a match-up between Herman Cain and the president.

Numbers for Pennsylvania will be released today at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.
Logged
oakvale
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9207
Palestinian Territory, Occupied
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00

View Profile
« Reply #9078 on: November 14, 2011, 10:01:01 am »
Ignore

Huh. Obama seems to be on an upward trend, although Rasmussen (of all pollsters!) have him a few points higher than everyone else.
Logged

Seriously, go die in a ditch, anti-semitic scumbag.
Herman Cain's Gold Chain
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31938
Dominica


View Profile
« Reply #9079 on: November 14, 2011, 12:49:57 pm »
Ignore

Rasmussen's poll today is the first poll (from any firm) to find Obama with positive national approvals since July.
Logged



(Part of the 2012 Election Throwback Series)
President von Cat
captain copernicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 615


View Profile
« Reply #9080 on: November 15, 2011, 05:19:37 am »
Ignore

I'm not really sure what is fueling Obama's uptick. Messaging on the jobs bill? Support for ending the Iraq war? Warm and fuzzy holiday goodyfeelings?

The economy sucks, yet Obama rises to 50%. Just seems counter intuitive.
Logged


It makes me happy Republicans will never be able to say they defeated Obama. Never ever.
Angel of Death
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1116
View Profile
« Reply #9081 on: November 15, 2011, 08:24:45 am »
Ignore

It could be that people's opinion about the state of the GOP primary is subconsciously influencing their approval of Obama.
Logged

WARNING: Selling oil in euros has been proven to be hazardous to one's health.
Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.
jmfcst
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18306
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9082 on: November 15, 2011, 08:27:12 am »
Ignore

It could be that people's opinion about the state of the GOP primary is subconsciously influencing their approval of Obama.

yep...the Cain scandal is helping Obama...and Libya
Logged

Do not fight with one another over my banning.  I've enjoyed the time I have spent with all of you, but the time really has come for me to leave.  It is what I want.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9Y_GLT4_9I

I looked over Jordan, and what did I see?
Coming for to carry me home,
A band of angels coming after me,
Coming for to carry me home.

Swing low, sweet chariot,
Coming for to carry me home.
Nagas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1606
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -7.65

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #9083 on: November 15, 2011, 04:31:24 pm »
Ignore

I'm not really sure what is fueling Obama's uptick. Messaging on the jobs bill? Support for ending the Iraq war? Warm and fuzzy holiday goodyfeelings?

The economy sucks, yet Obama rises to 50%. Just seems counter intuitive.

Better than expected economic data keeps happening (it's not that much better but an improvement is an improvement), Libya, and a pathetic GOP field works well in his favor.
Logged

Herman Cain's Gold Chain
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31938
Dominica


View Profile
« Reply #9084 on: November 15, 2011, 05:01:27 pm »
Ignore

The jobs act is also very popular, and the GOP's continued obstruction of it is a clear contrast between the two parties.

Note that the Dems have also opened up a lead over the GOP on the generic ballot.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2011, 05:04:12 pm by On That Midnight Cain to Georgia... »Logged



(Part of the 2012 Election Throwback Series)
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9887
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9085 on: November 15, 2011, 06:38:45 pm »
Ignore

PPP isn't charitable to the President in its most recent approval rating:

Quote
National Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obamaís job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

...but he can apparently win against this:

Quote
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable........................................................ 36%
Unfavorable .................................................... 50%

or others even less ready for prime time:

Quote
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 39%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Herman Cain................................................... 41%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 43%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 41%
Undecided....................................................... 13%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 39%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 43%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_US_1115513.pdf

With such high disapproval for the President and low valuation of the competence of challengers, I can expect that a large number of  potential voters either

(1) will not vote for any nominee
(2) will make their decisions based on something random, like a coin toss
(3) will vote for a third-party candidate
(4) will vote based upon their partisan affiliation

...all of which suggest a wash.

 
Logged



Your political compass

Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 33367
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #9086 on: November 16, 2011, 12:55:41 pm »
Ignore

Wisconsin (St. Norbert College Ė Wisconsin Public Radio):

53% Approve
43% Disapprove

Gov. Walker

38% Approve
58% Disapprove

http://wpr.org/announce/survey1111/2011f-survey-1.pdf
Logged
BigSkyBob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2264
View Profile
« Reply #9087 on: November 16, 2011, 01:23:07 pm »
Ignore

Rasmussen [11/16/11]:

Strong Approval:     23%
Strong Disapproval: 42%

-19%


Overall approval:

Approve:      47%
Disapprove: 53%
Logged

The real scandal in Washington is not the bribery, corruption, or sex. It is how poorly we are governed.
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4565


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #9088 on: November 16, 2011, 01:31:14 pm »
Ignore

In looking the the day to day numbers, it's easy to think you see trends that are not really there.

If you do an apples to apples comparison (ie track the changes within the same poll) there seems to be a whole lot less noise...


Essentially, versus a month ago, Obama's average disapproval is virtually unchanged, and his approval is up, on average, about 1%.

These changes are so small that "statistical noise" is my first guess. followed by "perhaps a very modest rise" in second place.....

« Last Edit: November 17, 2011, 07:18:31 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
Ben Romney
Hillary2012
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 397
Germany


View Profile
« Reply #9089 on: November 16, 2011, 06:36:56 pm »
Ignore

Michigan: President Tied With Generic Republican

As President Obama seeks re-election, a couple of traditionally Democratic states may be more competitive than usual.

In 2008, the president won Michiganís Electoral College votes by sixteen percentage points but most Michigan voters now disapprove of the way heís handled his tenure in the White House. Just 47% of Likely Voters in the state approve of the way that the president is performing his job, while 52% disapprove, according to new Rasmussen Reports polling data.
Logged

I was anti-Obama before it was cool
Fmr. President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12856
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #9090 on: November 16, 2011, 06:41:30 pm »
Ignore

Michigan: President Tied With Generic Republican

As President Obama seeks re-election, a couple of traditionally Democratic states may be more competitive than usual.

In 2008, the president won Michiganís Electoral College votes by sixteen percentage points but most Michigan voters now disapprove of the way heís handled his tenure in the White House. Just 47% of Likely Voters in the state approve of the way that the president is performing his job, while 52% disapprove, according to new Rasmussen Reports polling data.

You really need to get a grip...
Logged


Dogma is a comfortable thing, it saves you from thought - Sir Robert Menzies
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9887
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9091 on: November 17, 2011, 06:10:28 am »
Ignore

Michigan: President Tied With Generic Republican

As President Obama seeks re-election, a couple of traditionally Democratic states may be more competitive than usual.

In 2008, the president won Michiganís Electoral College votes by sixteen percentage points but most Michigan voters now disapprove of the way heís handled his tenure in the White House. Just 47% of Likely Voters in the state approve of the way that the president is performing his job, while 52% disapprove, according to new Rasmussen Reports polling data.

"Generic Republican" will go into hibernation as winter approaches its end and won't re-emerge until after the 2012 election is over. In Michigan "Generic Republican" means former Governor William Milliken or the late George Romney -- not James DeMint or Michele Bachmann.

Michigan will be decided, in any event, on voter turnout. The Democrats are going to try to get as many union members, Hispanics, and African-Americans   out to vote, and if they are successful the Democrats are going to make Michigan in 2012 look politically much like Michigan in 2008.   Michigan is politically much like either Minnesota or Wisconsin except with far more blacks -- or basically with Detroit instead of the Twin Cities or Milwaukee. 
Logged



Your political compass

Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
BigSkyBob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2264
View Profile
« Reply #9092 on: November 17, 2011, 12:33:28 pm »
Ignore

Rasmussen [11/17/11]:

Strong Approval:      20%
Strong Disapproval:  44%


Overall Approval:      44%
Overall Disapproval:  56%

Strong disapproval approaching danger zone again.
Logged

The real scandal in Washington is not the bribery, corruption, or sex. It is how poorly we are governed.
Fmr. President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12856
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #9093 on: November 17, 2011, 05:23:56 pm »
Ignore

...or a bad sample.
Logged


Dogma is a comfortable thing, it saves you from thought - Sir Robert Menzies
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4565


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #9094 on: November 17, 2011, 07:24:53 pm »
Ignore

...or a bad sample.

The day Obama hit +1 in Rasmussen the sample jumped up a net 5% in one day, and three days later it drops 6% as that sample rolls off....

The "strong approve" dropping 5% looks like a bad sample on the low side...

Rasmussen's use of "likely voters" about a year out adds artificial volatility to things because "likely voters" a year out bounce around far more that they do close into an election....

There is no perfect methodology, they all have warts, this is just the set of warts Rasmussen has chosen...
Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9887
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9095 on: November 17, 2011, 10:23:37 pm »
Ignore

...or a bad sample.

The day Obama hit +1 in Rasmussen the sample jumped up a net 5% in one day, and three days later it drops 6% as that sample rolls off....

The "strong approve" dropping 5% looks like a bad sample on the low side...

Rasmussen's use of "likely voters" about a year out adds artificial volatility to things because "likely voters" a year out bounce around far more that they do close into an election....

There is no perfect methodology, they all have warts, this is just the set of warts Rasmussen has chosen...

Nobody can predict who the 'likely voters' are.  Some of the 'likely voters' will die or go senile and not vote.  Some who newly register to vote may be excited about casting their first vote as if a rite of passage. The latter are about as likely voters as I can imagine except for those actively involved in politics.

In all fairness to Rasmussen, its "likely voters" ends up looking like the electorate in a midterm or off-year election but goes to "real voters" in a Presidential year.   
Logged



Your political compass

Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
BigSkyBob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2264
View Profile
« Reply #9096 on: November 18, 2011, 12:20:26 am »
Ignore

...or a bad sample.

The day Obama hit +1 in Rasmussen the sample jumped up a net 5% in one day, and three days later it drops 6% as that sample rolls off....

The "strong approve" dropping 5% looks like a bad sample on the low side...

Rasmussen's use of "likely voters" about a year out adds artificial volatility to things because "likely voters" a year out bounce around far more that they do close into an election....

There is no perfect methodology, they all have warts, this is just the set of warts Rasmussen has chosen...

Nobody can predict who the 'likely voters' are. 

Perhaps Muon2 can enlighten you on how statistics work. "Voters" can't be predicted, but "likely voters" can. Sure, some voters that are not "likely voters" will in fact vote in the next election, and voters whom are "likely" to vote may not, but, the underlying statistical models underpinning the filter can be mathematically and empirically sound.

Logged

The real scandal in Washington is not the bribery, corruption, or sex. It is how poorly we are governed.
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14247
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 3.65

View Profile
« Reply #9097 on: November 18, 2011, 01:34:39 am »
Ignore

Rasmussen [11/17/11]:

Strong Approval:      20%
Strong Disapproval:  44%


Overall Approval:      44%
Overall Disapproval:  56%

Strong disapproval approaching danger zone again.

BS Bob clinging to Rasmussen numbers...what a surprise!
Logged


The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4565


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #9098 on: November 18, 2011, 01:03:56 pm »
Ignore


Nobody can predict who the 'likely voters' are.  

Perhaps Muon2 can enlighten you on how statistics work. "Voters" can't be predicted, but "likely voters" can. Sure, some voters that are not "likely voters" will in fact vote in the next election, and voters whom are "likely" to vote may not, but, the underlying statistical models underpinning the filter can be mathematically and empirically sound.


There is no doubt that a "likely voter" screen is a better way to poll when you get quite close to an actual election, but one year out it's a bit vague as to how useful that screening is.

This far out, I actually like what Marist/McClatchy and Fox (Opinion Dynamics) do which is run a poll of registered voters, and then NOT slam the undecided hard for a reply.

By limiting the pool to RVs you eliminate the folks who are really unlikley to vote, and by not slamming the undecided, you get the opinion of those who are at least marginally engaged in the process enough to have an a actual opinion.

McClatchy says 43/50 => -7, which is pretty much identical to Fox's 42/48 => -6

The Gold Standard poll (HART/McINTURFF for NBC/WSJ) says 44/51 => -7 which I think is pretty close to reality.

Obama is (IMHO) is in that grey area of polling where is is clearly vulnerable, but also not dead in the water. - Obama's polling looks a lot like Bush II in the summer of 2004 (Obama is maybe a few points weaker) - weak, with a very passionate and intense core of opposition, but also a base that is "hanging in there" and likely facing a challenger in the General election that is less than optimal....

Assuming the Obama folks can bury any ethics scandals, and assuming the GOP gets a flawed candidate, Obama can still will.  It's going to be very close.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2011, 01:05:27 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13355


View Profile
« Reply #9099 on: November 18, 2011, 03:08:32 pm »
Ignore

If nothing out of the ordinary happens with the economy, I have a feeling Obama wins a close one. Though if Romney is the nominee, he would have a good chance of winning, but again it will be close. If Europe implodes then who knows what happens but I doubt Obama can recover from that. If the economy suddenly starts creating on average 200-300k jobs per month then Obama wins easily. If the economy creates just enough jobs for the unemployment rate to remain steady or fall very slowly, it's going to be a close one. This is the state the economy has been in for more than a year now.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 359 360 361 362 363 [364] 365 366 367 368 369 ... 410 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines