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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 683403 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #9075 on: November 13, 2011, 07:46:08 pm »
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I'll try to get back tomorrow.

Obama was at 43% on Gallup, which is survivable. 
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« Reply #9076 on: November 14, 2011, 09:51:38 am »
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JJ seems to be absent, so:

Rasmussen:

48% Approve (+1)
51% Disapprove (-1)

22% Strongly Approve (nc)
38% Strongly Disapprove (-1)

Could BHO be above water by next Sunday, or atleast have broke even for a day or so, do we think?

You got it right:

Rasmussen:

50% Approve (+2)
49% Disapprove (-2)

23% Strongly Approve (+1)
38% Strongly Disapprove (nc)

"Thatís the first time since June that the president has reached the 50% mark."

New numbers for a match-up with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and President Obama will be released today at noon Eastern.

Tomorrow, we will release updated numbers on a match-up between Herman Cain and the president.

Numbers for Pennsylvania will be released today at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.
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« Reply #9077 on: November 14, 2011, 10:01:01 am »
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Huh. Obama seems to be on an upward trend, although Rasmussen (of all pollsters!) have him a few points higher than everyone else.
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« Reply #9078 on: November 14, 2011, 12:49:57 pm »
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Rasmussen's poll today is the first poll (from any firm) to find Obama with positive national approvals since July.
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« Reply #9079 on: November 15, 2011, 05:19:37 am »
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I'm not really sure what is fueling Obama's uptick. Messaging on the jobs bill? Support for ending the Iraq war? Warm and fuzzy holiday goodyfeelings?

The economy sucks, yet Obama rises to 50%. Just seems counter intuitive.
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« Reply #9080 on: November 15, 2011, 08:24:45 am »
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It could be that people's opinion about the state of the GOP primary is subconsciously influencing their approval of Obama.
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« Reply #9081 on: November 15, 2011, 08:27:12 am »
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It could be that people's opinion about the state of the GOP primary is subconsciously influencing their approval of Obama.

yep...the Cain scandal is helping Obama...and Libya
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« Reply #9082 on: November 15, 2011, 04:31:24 pm »
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I'm not really sure what is fueling Obama's uptick. Messaging on the jobs bill? Support for ending the Iraq war? Warm and fuzzy holiday goodyfeelings?

The economy sucks, yet Obama rises to 50%. Just seems counter intuitive.

Better than expected economic data keeps happening (it's not that much better but an improvement is an improvement), Libya, and a pathetic GOP field works well in his favor.
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« Reply #9083 on: November 15, 2011, 05:01:27 pm »
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The jobs act is also very popular, and the GOP's continued obstruction of it is a clear contrast between the two parties.

Note that the Dems have also opened up a lead over the GOP on the generic ballot.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2011, 05:04:12 pm by On That Midnight Cain to Georgia... »Logged



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« Reply #9084 on: November 15, 2011, 06:38:45 pm »
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PPP isn't charitable to the President in its most recent approval rating:

Quote
National Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obamaís job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

...but he can apparently win against this:

Quote
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable........................................................ 36%
Unfavorable .................................................... 50%

or others even less ready for prime time:

Quote
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 39%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Herman Cain................................................... 41%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 43%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 41%
Undecided....................................................... 13%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 39%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 43%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_US_1115513.pdf

With such high disapproval for the President and low valuation of the competence of challengers, I can expect that a large number of  potential voters either

(1) will not vote for any nominee
(2) will make their decisions based on something random, like a coin toss
(3) will vote for a third-party candidate
(4) will vote based upon their partisan affiliation

...all of which suggest a wash.

 
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« Reply #9085 on: November 16, 2011, 12:55:41 pm »
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Wisconsin (St. Norbert College Ė Wisconsin Public Radio):

53% Approve
43% Disapprove

Gov. Walker

38% Approve
58% Disapprove

http://wpr.org/announce/survey1111/2011f-survey-1.pdf
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« Reply #9086 on: November 16, 2011, 01:23:07 pm »
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Rasmussen [11/16/11]:

Strong Approval:     23%
Strong Disapproval: 42%

-19%


Overall approval:

Approve:      47%
Disapprove: 53%
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« Reply #9087 on: November 16, 2011, 01:31:14 pm »
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In looking the the day to day numbers, it's easy to think you see trends that are not really there.

If you do an apples to apples comparison (ie track the changes within the same poll) there seems to be a whole lot less noise...


Essentially, versus a month ago, Obama's average disapproval is virtually unchanged, and his approval is up, on average, about 1%.

These changes are so small that "statistical noise" is my first guess. followed by "perhaps a very modest rise" in second place.....

« Last Edit: November 17, 2011, 07:18:31 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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« Reply #9088 on: November 16, 2011, 06:36:56 pm »
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Michigan: President Tied With Generic Republican

As President Obama seeks re-election, a couple of traditionally Democratic states may be more competitive than usual.

In 2008, the president won Michiganís Electoral College votes by sixteen percentage points but most Michigan voters now disapprove of the way heís handled his tenure in the White House. Just 47% of Likely Voters in the state approve of the way that the president is performing his job, while 52% disapprove, according to new Rasmussen Reports polling data.
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« Reply #9089 on: November 16, 2011, 06:41:30 pm »
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Michigan: President Tied With Generic Republican

As President Obama seeks re-election, a couple of traditionally Democratic states may be more competitive than usual.

In 2008, the president won Michiganís Electoral College votes by sixteen percentage points but most Michigan voters now disapprove of the way heís handled his tenure in the White House. Just 47% of Likely Voters in the state approve of the way that the president is performing his job, while 52% disapprove, according to new Rasmussen Reports polling data.

You really need to get a grip...
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« Reply #9090 on: November 17, 2011, 06:10:28 am »
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Michigan: President Tied With Generic Republican

As President Obama seeks re-election, a couple of traditionally Democratic states may be more competitive than usual.

In 2008, the president won Michiganís Electoral College votes by sixteen percentage points but most Michigan voters now disapprove of the way heís handled his tenure in the White House. Just 47% of Likely Voters in the state approve of the way that the president is performing his job, while 52% disapprove, according to new Rasmussen Reports polling data.

"Generic Republican" will go into hibernation as winter approaches its end and won't re-emerge until after the 2012 election is over. In Michigan "Generic Republican" means former Governor William Milliken or the late George Romney -- not James DeMint or Michele Bachmann.

Michigan will be decided, in any event, on voter turnout. The Democrats are going to try to get as many union members, Hispanics, and African-Americans   out to vote, and if they are successful the Democrats are going to make Michigan in 2012 look politically much like Michigan in 2008.   Michigan is politically much like either Minnesota or Wisconsin except with far more blacks -- or basically with Detroit instead of the Twin Cities or Milwaukee. 
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« Reply #9091 on: November 17, 2011, 12:33:28 pm »
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Rasmussen [11/17/11]:

Strong Approval:      20%
Strong Disapproval:  44%


Overall Approval:      44%
Overall Disapproval:  56%

Strong disapproval approaching danger zone again.
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« Reply #9092 on: November 17, 2011, 05:23:56 pm »
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...or a bad sample.
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« Reply #9093 on: November 17, 2011, 07:24:53 pm »
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...or a bad sample.

The day Obama hit +1 in Rasmussen the sample jumped up a net 5% in one day, and three days later it drops 6% as that sample rolls off....

The "strong approve" dropping 5% looks like a bad sample on the low side...

Rasmussen's use of "likely voters" about a year out adds artificial volatility to things because "likely voters" a year out bounce around far more that they do close into an election....

There is no perfect methodology, they all have warts, this is just the set of warts Rasmussen has chosen...
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« Reply #9094 on: November 17, 2011, 10:23:37 pm »
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...or a bad sample.

The day Obama hit +1 in Rasmussen the sample jumped up a net 5% in one day, and three days later it drops 6% as that sample rolls off....

The "strong approve" dropping 5% looks like a bad sample on the low side...

Rasmussen's use of "likely voters" about a year out adds artificial volatility to things because "likely voters" a year out bounce around far more that they do close into an election....

There is no perfect methodology, they all have warts, this is just the set of warts Rasmussen has chosen...

Nobody can predict who the 'likely voters' are.  Some of the 'likely voters' will die or go senile and not vote.  Some who newly register to vote may be excited about casting their first vote as if a rite of passage. The latter are about as likely voters as I can imagine except for those actively involved in politics.

In all fairness to Rasmussen, its "likely voters" ends up looking like the electorate in a midterm or off-year election but goes to "real voters" in a Presidential year.   
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« Reply #9095 on: November 18, 2011, 12:20:26 am »
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...or a bad sample.

The day Obama hit +1 in Rasmussen the sample jumped up a net 5% in one day, and three days later it drops 6% as that sample rolls off....

The "strong approve" dropping 5% looks like a bad sample on the low side...

Rasmussen's use of "likely voters" about a year out adds artificial volatility to things because "likely voters" a year out bounce around far more that they do close into an election....

There is no perfect methodology, they all have warts, this is just the set of warts Rasmussen has chosen...

Nobody can predict who the 'likely voters' are. 

Perhaps Muon2 can enlighten you on how statistics work. "Voters" can't be predicted, but "likely voters" can. Sure, some voters that are not "likely voters" will in fact vote in the next election, and voters whom are "likely" to vote may not, but, the underlying statistical models underpinning the filter can be mathematically and empirically sound.

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« Reply #9096 on: November 18, 2011, 01:34:39 am »
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Rasmussen [11/17/11]:

Strong Approval:      20%
Strong Disapproval:  44%


Overall Approval:      44%
Overall Disapproval:  56%

Strong disapproval approaching danger zone again.

BS Bob clinging to Rasmussen numbers...what a surprise!
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« Reply #9097 on: November 18, 2011, 01:03:56 pm »
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Nobody can predict who the 'likely voters' are.  

Perhaps Muon2 can enlighten you on how statistics work. "Voters" can't be predicted, but "likely voters" can. Sure, some voters that are not "likely voters" will in fact vote in the next election, and voters whom are "likely" to vote may not, but, the underlying statistical models underpinning the filter can be mathematically and empirically sound.


There is no doubt that a "likely voter" screen is a better way to poll when you get quite close to an actual election, but one year out it's a bit vague as to how useful that screening is.

This far out, I actually like what Marist/McClatchy and Fox (Opinion Dynamics) do which is run a poll of registered voters, and then NOT slam the undecided hard for a reply.

By limiting the pool to RVs you eliminate the folks who are really unlikley to vote, and by not slamming the undecided, you get the opinion of those who are at least marginally engaged in the process enough to have an a actual opinion.

McClatchy says 43/50 => -7, which is pretty much identical to Fox's 42/48 => -6

The Gold Standard poll (HART/McINTURFF for NBC/WSJ) says 44/51 => -7 which I think is pretty close to reality.

Obama is (IMHO) is in that grey area of polling where is is clearly vulnerable, but also not dead in the water. - Obama's polling looks a lot like Bush II in the summer of 2004 (Obama is maybe a few points weaker) - weak, with a very passionate and intense core of opposition, but also a base that is "hanging in there" and likely facing a challenger in the General election that is less than optimal....

Assuming the Obama folks can bury any ethics scandals, and assuming the GOP gets a flawed candidate, Obama can still will.  It's going to be very close.
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« Reply #9098 on: November 18, 2011, 03:08:32 pm »
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If nothing out of the ordinary happens with the economy, I have a feeling Obama wins a close one. Though if Romney is the nominee, he would have a good chance of winning, but again it will be close. If Europe implodes then who knows what happens but I doubt Obama can recover from that. If the economy suddenly starts creating on average 200-300k jobs per month then Obama wins easily. If the economy creates just enough jobs for the unemployment rate to remain steady or fall very slowly, it's going to be a close one. This is the state the economy has been in for more than a year now.
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« Reply #9099 on: November 18, 2011, 04:28:39 pm »
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Nobody can predict who the 'likely voters' are.  

Perhaps Muon2 can enlighten you on how statistics work. "Voters" can't be predicted, but "likely voters" can. Sure, some voters that are not "likely voters" will in fact vote in the next election, and voters whom are "likely" to vote may not, but, the underlying statistical models underpinning the filter can be mathematically and empirically sound.


There is no doubt that a "likely voter" screen is a better way to poll when you get quite close to an actual election, but one year out it's a bit vague as to how useful that screening is.

This far out, I actually like what Marist/McClatchy and Fox (Opinion Dynamics) do which is run a poll of registered voters, and then NOT slam the undecided hard for a reply.

By limiting the pool to RVs you eliminate the folks who are really unlikley to vote, and by not slamming the undecided, you get the opinion of those who are at least marginally engaged in the process enough to have an a actual opinion.

McClatchy says 43/50 => -7, which is pretty much identical to Fox's 42/48 => -6

The Gold Standard poll (HART/McINTURFF for NBC/WSJ) says 44/51 => -7 which I think is pretty close to reality.

Obama is (IMHO) is in that grey area of polling where is is clearly vulnerable, but also not dead in the water. - Obama's polling looks a lot like Bush II in the summer of 2004 (Obama is maybe a few points weaker) - weak, with a very passionate and intense core of opposition, but also a base that is "hanging in there" and likely facing a challenger in the General election that is less than optimal....

Assuming the Obama folks can bury any ethics scandals, and assuming the GOP gets a flawed candidate, Obama can still will.  It's going to be very close.


President Obama is indeed cooked if...

(1) The Republicans find a really-strong, moderate opponent. A RINO could beat him... or a conservative capable of allaying concerns about whether the GOP agenda would be nothing more than All for the Few. 

(2) He has a significant and discrediting scandal that entails personal gain for raiding the public assets. If Dubya could survive Enron, then the President can survive Solyndra, the latter more a bad judgment on a business model than cronyism.

(3) He assumes that he will be re-elected so he doesn't need to campaign.

(4) The US economy goes very bad very fast.

1. The Republicans aren't running any RINO, and with the politicians that they now have they are not making significant inroads onto the "Blue Firewall" except perhaps New Hampshire -- if Mitt Romney can convince the Granite State that he is one of them.  He is up by nearly 10 points -- which is not surprising when he is much of the news in a state rarely known as a source for news.  If anything the President is consolidating a hold in Ohio, a state that the Republicans absolutely dare not lose.  This President saved the auto industry, or at least two of the Big Three.

2. There may be no scandal to cover up. If Dubya could survive Enron, this President can survive Solyndra.

3. This is a question of personality. Will he do any active campaigning? He seems to enjoy it. He built one of the finest campaign apparatuses ever in 2008 and he can get that back in operation very quickly. He has incentives because the Republican hold on the House will be shaky and the Democratic hold on the Senate looks shaky. This President anticipates trouble well and deals with it without delay.

4. Every month that passes without such happening makes such much less likely.

Americans are getting more fussy about politics altogether, which is a good thing. When it comes to voting, Americans end up grading on a curve. If the President's approval rating is 48% but the opponent has a favorability rating around 42%, then guess who wins! Should Americans be getting more fussy about politics? Without question. We recently had a horrible President, and the House of Representatives is achieving nothing.

President Obama could win the electoral vote despite being second in the popular vote.   
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