The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[BigSkyBob]

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

[Nagas]

Perhaps he's feeling some political fallout from the failure of the debt committee.

[J. J.]

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

At this point, 43% is survivable.

I don't agree.  If he's running against Romney and he isn't back to up to 47-49% range by election day, he won't win. 

November 29, 2011 isn't Election Day 2012. 

Most presidents close the gap from their year before low; their numbers improve.  Even a weak candidate can improve 7-9 points.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

Edited to fix typo.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

All the recent economic news, especially with today's positive Europe action, has been good for him.  Consumer confidence is way up, unemployment claims below 400,000 for a month, Holiday consumer spending with the greatest year over year increase since 2007.  The only bad/neutral news has been last month's unemployment report, and that didn't seem to have an effect. 

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 58%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

Typo alert -- it is 43% approve, 56% disapprove.

[J. J.]

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  43%, u.

Disapprove:  49%, u.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 58%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

Thank you; I just fixed it.

Typo alert -- it is 43% approve, 56% disapprove.

[BigSkyBob]

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

We'll see if this is the case after today's massive rally over the next couple of days.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

We'll see if this is the case after today's massive rally over the next couple of days.

I think Nov unemployment comes out Friday.  If it is positive, relatively speaking, it will be difficult to distinguish the two.  Jobless claims below 400,000 for a month normally means at least low six figure job growth.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, u.

Disapprove 56%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.

I would be watching to see if Strongly Disapprove consistently equals Approve.

[BigSkyBob]

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

We'll see if this is the case after today's massive rally over the next couple of days.

I think Nov unemployment comes out Friday.  If it is positive, relatively speaking, it will be difficult to distinguish the two.  Jobless claims below 400,000 for a month normally means at least low six figure job growth.

That's initial claims per week.

It was above 400,000 today.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

We'll see if this is the case after today's massive rally over the next couple of days.

I think Nov unemployment comes out Friday.  If it is positive, relatively speaking, it will be difficult to distinguish the two.  Jobless claims below 400,000 for a month normally means at least low six figure job growth.

That's initial claims per week.

It was above 400,000 today.

Right, but 400,000 is roughly the "people sense improvement" level for that variable.  It did rise again, but it has averaged below 400,000 over several weeks.  The last time that happened was in Jan and Feb when we had roughly 200K job growth for the month.

[The Vorlon]

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

Very little, if any, real change...

A lot of the changes in RCP and other averages is just polls more favorable to Obama (Pew, CBS, Ipsos, etc) rolling in and out or the average...

Both Gallup and Rasmussen have had a few odd runs.  I wonder if there is some issue with samples getting out of sync or something.  Both Rasmussen and Gallup buy their raw survey calling lists from the same supplier (Survey Sample International) and I sometimes think there may be some glitch there...

Obama is at the upper end of the 40-45 band for approval, and 50% ish disapproval..

Not good, but not dead in the water either...

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

Very little, if any, real change...

A lot of the changes in RCP and other averages is just polls more favorable to Obama (Pew, CBS, Ipsos, etc) rolling in and out or the average...

Both Gallup and Rasmussen have had a few odd runs.  I wonder if there is some issue with samples getting out of sync or something.  Both Rasmussen and Gallup buy their raw survey calling lists from the same supplier (Survey Sample International) and I sometimes think there may be some glitch there...

Obama is at the upper end of the 40-45 band for approval, and 50% ish disapproval..

Not good, but not dead in the water either...

Well he could still be following a delayed Reagan path where good economic news props him back up over 50 by late winter and he stays there.  This assumes that Europe stabilizes and the recent uptick in employment and consumer confidence accelerates.

Other than that, or something particularly heroic in foreign policy, I don't know how he gets out of the 42% strong disapproval rut.

[The Vorlon]

Well he could still be following a delayed Reagan path where good economic news props him back up over 50 by late winter and he stays there.  This assumes that Europe stabilizes and the recent uptick in employment and consumer confidence accelerates.

Other than that, or something particularly heroic in foreign policy, I don't know how he gets out of the 42% strong disapproval rut.

Can't see where an economic uptick comes from though.

The Euro zone, even assuming an optimistic scenario where it doesn't implode, will certainly not be an engine of growth.

China is wobbly, Japan is, well, Japan...

The overhang of the housing bubble is still huge.  ObamaCare is an unknown.  The EuroZone remains a ticking time bomb. China is massively overbuilt and their economy is waaay short of enough internal demand to be self sustaining.

 I just don't see where the investment and risk taking need to jump start things comes from.

[J. J.]

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  42%, -1.

Disapprove:  50%, +1.

[BigSkyBob]

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

We'll see if this is the case after today's massive rally over the next couple of days.

I think Nov unemployment comes out Friday.  If it is positive, relatively speaking, it will be difficult to distinguish the two.  Jobless claims below 400,000 for a month normally means at least low six figure job growth.

That's initial claims per week.

It was above 400,000 today.

Right, but 400,000 is roughly the "people sense improvement" level for that variable.  It did rise again, but it has averaged below 400,000 over several weeks.  The last time that happened was in Jan and Feb when we had roughly 200K job growth for the month.

I thought the over/under number was about 375,000.

400,000 points to 9.1% unemployment.

[Skill and Chance]

Well we just had a jobs report that looks Reagan 1984 esque on the surface.  In reality, of course it's not that great, but we will have to see which number matters more psychologically. 

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, u.

Disapprove 55%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.

[J. J.]

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  42%, u.

Disapprove:  50%, u.

[Lief]

hahahah, Huntsman's ads are great.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/12/02/huntsman_hits_romney.html

[CJK]

Obama Average Approval Rating November 2011 (Gallup)

43% Approve

49% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Roosevelt: 58/37 (November 1939)

Truman: 54/33 (November 1947) AND 23/61 (November 1951)

Eisenhower: 78/13 (November 1955)

Kennedy: 58/30 (November 1963)

Johnson: 42/46 (November 1967)

Nixon: 49/37 (November 1971)

Ford: 43/45 (November 1975)

Carter: 35/52 (November 1979)

Reagan: 53/37 (November 1983)

Bush I: 55/37 (November 1991)

Clinton: 52/41 (November 1995)

Bush II: 52/45 (November 2003)

[Skill and Chance]

Obama Average Approval Rating November 2011 (Gallup)

43% Approve

49% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Roosevelt: 58/37 (November 1939)

Truman: 54/33 (November 1947) AND 23/61 (November 1951)

Eisenhower: 78/13 (November 1955)

Kennedy: 58/30 (November 1963)

Johnson: 42/46 (November 1967)

Nixon: 49/37 (November 1971)

Ford: 43/45 (November 1975)

Carter: 35/52 (November 1979)

Reagan: 53/37 (November 1983)

Bush I: 55/37 (November 1991)

Clinton: 52/41 (November 1995)

Bush II: 52/45 (November 2003)

Truman was popular in the fall of 47?!  When did he start cratering to fall into the 30's by the summer of 48?

[pbrower2a]

Obama Average Approval Rating November 2011 (Gallup)

43% Approve

49% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Roosevelt: 58/37 (November 1939)

Truman: 54/33 (November 1947) AND 23/61 (November 1951)

Eisenhower: 78/13 (November 1955)

Kennedy: 58/30 (November 1963)

Johnson: 42/46 (November 1967)

Nixon: 49/37 (November 1971)

Ford: 43/45 (November 1975)

Carter: 35/52 (November 1979)

Reagan: 53/37 (November 1983)

Bush I: 55/37 (November 1991)

Clinton: 52/41 (November 1995)

Bush II: 52/45 (November 2003)

Truman was popular in the fall of 47?!  When did he start cratering to fall into the 30's by the summer of 48?

The Korean War. I'm going to guess that as the front line sagged southward so did President Truman's approval rating. The war also got increasingly unpopular as it dragged on.