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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 642942 times)
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #9125 on: November 23, 2011, 05:31:28 pm »
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Actually, Obama's numbers have improved a great deal.  45% on Gallup is survivable. 

I still think he would lose to Romney by a state or two if the election were next month.  That having been said, it's becoming increasingly obvious that he will win with any noticeable economic improvement in 2012.  Romney can beat him in the economic status quo.  If anyone else wins the GOP nomination, they will probably need another 2008-style crash before the election to beat him.

At this point the President would lose if  he failed to campaign for re-election or campaigned ineffectively. The Democrats have yet to harp on Mitt Romney's ideological inconsistencies and his participation in corporate restructuring that on the net destroyed jobs. The Democrats (and especially liberal-leaning media) have unleashed the salvos on other possible GOP nominees  except for Romney. The kid gloves toward him stay on so long as someone else is the front-runner but come off once the campaign begins in earnest.   

In general one can add an average of 6% to the approval rating of an incumbent Governor or Senator at the start of the campaign season to get the percentage of the total vote for the incumbent.  Because the Presidential campaign is basically 50 statewide elections won much as gubernatorial or senatorial races are won, you can expect much the same for an incumbent President. As a strict rule a challenger who ends up winning has a large lead with perhaps lots of undecided and the incumbent cuts into that large lead but not well enough because such a lead for the challenger is simply too much. Of course such shows that the incumbent is wildly unpopular for a good reason -- like being seen as extreme,  inept, aloof, or even corrupt. Add to that, the incumbent almost invariably has shown the ability to campaign for the office and set up a good electoral apparatus, which the challenger rarely does adeptly.

Challengers can carp at will about the incumbent until the nominations are in place. Add to that the incumbent can't operate in campaign mode all the time and is compelled to make decisions, such as budgeting and voting, likely to disappoint some who voted for him. Once the nominations are certain, the incumbent's campaign can dish out the negative campaign against the challenger.  Negative campaigns that question the ability of the challenger to do as effectively may be the last resort -- but that is how Dubya won re-election in 2004.

The argument that the President is an extremist is nothing new; it was used against him in 2008 and proved inadequate. Such is likely to be as ineffective an argument against the President this time as it was against Ronald Reagan in 1984. People who thought that he was disloyal or suspect in loyalty to America, that he was going to take away firearms from people who have veritable fetishes about them, that he was a secret Muslim (with FDR it was that FDR was really a Jew,  which was then about as distant from the political mainstream), or that he would operate as an autocrat are still convinced of that.

The 2012 election will be in part a referendum on foreign policy and economic improvement. The President is solid on foreign policy and military matters. Now for the economy -- can he win with a weak economy?

Absolutely not if the economy tanks. There's just too little to tank. We don't have a corrupt speculative boom  set to implode; the last boom imploded three to four years ago. Slow improvement is the best that anyone can ask for even if it means that things are now less attractive than they were five years ago. FDR was able to get re-elected despite unemployment higher than what President Obama has staring at him.       

Stop comparing Obama to FDR.  FDR saw unemployment drop from 25% in 1933 to 16% in 1936 and he also gained seats in 1934, showing that he and his party had a lot more goodwill with the American people than Obama does. 
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« Reply #9126 on: November 23, 2011, 09:28:31 pm »
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Stop comparing Obama to FDR.  FDR saw unemployment drop from 25% in 1933 to 16% in 1936 and he also gained seats in 1934, showing that he and his party had a lot more goodwill with the American people than Obama does. 

Please stop comparing Barack Obama to Herbert Hoover or Jimmy Carter.

Unemployment is a lagging indicator; FDR took just after the economy bottomed out after a three-year economic meltdown; Barack Obama took over before the end of a year-and-a-half economic meltdown. In 1934 the Republican Party and its front groups had not yet developed  the sort of Orwellian propaganda with deep-pockets support behind it that they used in 2010. That is a huge change in politics, and if that change remains effective in 2012, then President Obama will surely be defeated or at least marginalized.

This depression is hardly as severe as that of 1929-1940... but it could easily have been. The first eighteen months of the 2007-2009 meltdown was as severe as the first eighteen months of the 1929-1933 meltdown. Please give this President some credit for the end of the decline, if nothing more than credit for not making things worse and for promoting some gimmicks to stop the economic bleeding. 
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« Reply #9127 on: November 24, 2011, 01:02:18 pm »
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Please give this President some credit for the end of the decline, if nothing more than credit for not making things worse and for promoting some gimmicks to stop the economic bleeding.  


That is actually a matter of some debate.

Obama has essentially slow walked the housing crisis, he has made it harder for the banks for foreclose, but he has put very little of actual substance on the table to actually fix the problem.

I would also note that according to the Director of the Congressional Budget office, that the net effect of Obama's "stimulus" will be a slightly smaller economy and a lower GDP than if it had never been enacted. - Again, this is from the Director of the (semi) non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2h_rDrd97sY&feature=player_embedded

Hundreds of billions of dollars in payoffs to teachers, labor unions, and crony capitalism friends, in exchange for a massively higher debt, larger debt servicing costs AND fewer jobs and a lower GDP at the end of it all is not exactly a matter that is universally regarded as beneficial.


« Last Edit: November 24, 2011, 01:08:21 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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J. J.
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« Reply #9128 on: November 28, 2011, 10:13:56 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%.

Disapprove 54%.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%.

I'll start with the changes tomorrow.


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J. J.

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« Reply #9129 on: November 28, 2011, 07:37:59 pm »
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Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  44%

Disapprove:  47%

Gallup is useful for historical comparisons.  At 44% approval, Obama is easily able to survive, i.e. other presidents have won with equal or lower numbers.  The key will be if the number drops to the 40% or below mark consistently.
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J. J.

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« Reply #9130 on: November 29, 2011, 09:52:27 am »
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Not yet up on the chart, but in the text:  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, u.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.
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J. J.

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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

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« Reply #9131 on: November 29, 2011, 04:41:44 pm »
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Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  43%, -1.

Disapprove:  49%, +2.

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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9132 on: November 29, 2011, 05:07:53 pm »
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Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.
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« Reply #9133 on: November 29, 2011, 08:46:56 pm »
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Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

At this point, 43% is survivable.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9134 on: November 29, 2011, 09:12:08 pm »
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Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

At this point, 43% is survivable.

I don't agree.  If he's running against Romney and he isn't back to up to 47-49% range by election day, he won't win. 
« Last Edit: November 29, 2011, 09:14:44 pm by Skill and Chance »Logged
BigSkyBob
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« Reply #9135 on: November 29, 2011, 10:19:10 pm »
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Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.
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« Reply #9136 on: November 29, 2011, 10:44:22 pm »
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Perhaps he's feeling some political fallout from the failure of the debt committee.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9137 on: November 30, 2011, 09:06:11 am »
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Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

At this point, 43% is survivable.

I don't agree.  If he's running against Romney and he isn't back to up to 47-49% range by election day, he won't win. 


November 29, 2011 isn't Election Day 2012. 

Most presidents close the gap from their year before low; their numbers improve.  Even a weak candidate can improve 7-9 points.
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J. J.

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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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« Reply #9138 on: November 30, 2011, 09:39:40 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

Edited to fix typo.

« Last Edit: November 30, 2011, 02:36:17 pm by J. J. »Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9139 on: November 30, 2011, 10:44:55 am »
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Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

All the recent economic news, especially with today's positive Europe action, has been good for him.  Consumer confidence is way up, unemployment claims below 400,000 for a month, Holiday consumer spending with the greatest year over year increase since 2007.  The only bad/neutral news has been last month's unemployment report, and that didn't seem to have an effect. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9140 on: November 30, 2011, 12:23:05 pm »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 58%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.



Typo alert -- it is 43% approve, 56% disapprove.
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« Reply #9141 on: November 30, 2011, 02:32:04 pm »
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Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  43%, u.

Disapprove:  49%, u.


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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

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« Reply #9142 on: November 30, 2011, 02:37:35 pm »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 58%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.



Thank you; I just fixed it.

Typo alert -- it is 43% approve, 56% disapprove.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9143 on: November 30, 2011, 08:24:16 pm »
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Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

We'll see if this is the case after today's massive rally over the next couple of days.
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« Reply #9144 on: November 30, 2011, 10:15:16 pm »
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Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

We'll see if this is the case after today's massive rally over the next couple of days.

I think Nov unemployment comes out Friday.  If it is positive, relatively speaking, it will be difficult to distinguish the two.  Jobless claims below 400,000 for a month normally means at least low six figure job growth.
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« Reply #9145 on: December 01, 2011, 10:56:06 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, u.

Disapprove 56%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.

I would be watching to see if Strongly Disapprove consistently equals Approve.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9146 on: December 01, 2011, 01:25:33 pm »
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Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

We'll see if this is the case after today's massive rally over the next couple of days.

I think Nov unemployment comes out Friday.  If it is positive, relatively speaking, it will be difficult to distinguish the two.  Jobless claims below 400,000 for a month normally means at least low six figure job growth.

That's initial claims per week.

It was above 400,000 today.
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« Reply #9147 on: December 01, 2011, 04:01:02 pm »
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Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

We'll see if this is the case after today's massive rally over the next couple of days.

I think Nov unemployment comes out Friday.  If it is positive, relatively speaking, it will be difficult to distinguish the two.  Jobless claims below 400,000 for a month normally means at least low six figure job growth.

That's initial claims per week.

It was above 400,000 today.

Right, but 400,000 is roughly the "people sense improvement" level for that variable.  It did rise again, but it has averaged below 400,000 over several weeks.  The last time that happened was in Jan and Feb when we had roughly 200K job growth for the month.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #9148 on: December 01, 2011, 04:11:48 pm »
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Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

Very little, if any, real change...

A lot of the changes in RCP and other averages is just polls more favorable to Obama (Pew, CBS, Ipsos, etc) rolling in and out or the average...

Both Gallup and Rasmussen have had a few odd runs.  I wonder if there is some issue with samples getting out of sync or something.  Both Rasmussen and Gallup buy their raw survey calling lists from the same supplier (Survey Sample International) and I sometimes think there may be some glitch there...

Obama is at the upper end of the 40-45 band for approval, and 50% ish disapproval..

Not good, but not dead in the water either...
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« Reply #9149 on: December 01, 2011, 04:16:48 pm »
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Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

Very little, if any, real change...

A lot of the changes in RCP and other averages is just polls more favorable to Obama (Pew, CBS, Ipsos, etc) rolling in and out or the average...

Both Gallup and Rasmussen have had a few odd runs.  I wonder if there is some issue with samples getting out of sync or something.  Both Rasmussen and Gallup buy their raw survey calling lists from the same supplier (Survey Sample International) and I sometimes think there may be some glitch there...

Obama is at the upper end of the 40-45 band for approval, and 50% ish disapproval..

Not good, but not dead in the water either...

Well he could still be following a delayed Reagan path where good economic news props him back up over 50 by late winter and he stays there.  This assumes that Europe stabilizes and the recent uptick in employment and consumer confidence accelerates.

Other than that, or something particularly heroic in foreign policy, I don't know how he gets out of the 42% strong disapproval rut.
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