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| | |-+  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 645322 times)
The Vorlon
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« Reply #9150 on: December 01, 2011, 05:59:53 pm »
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Well he could still be following a delayed Reagan path where good economic news props him back up over 50 by late winter and he stays there.  This assumes that Europe stabilizes and the recent uptick in employment and consumer confidence accelerates.

Other than that, or something particularly heroic in foreign policy, I don't know how he gets out of the 42% strong disapproval rut.

Can't see where an economic uptick comes from though.

The Euro zone, even assuming an optimistic scenario where it doesn't implode, will certainly not be an engine of growth.

China is wobbly, Japan is, well, Japan...

The overhang of the housing bubble is still huge.  ObamaCare is an unknown.  The EuroZone remains a ticking time bomb. China is massively overbuilt and their economy is waaay short of enough internal demand to be self sustaining.

 I just don't see where the investment and risk taking need to jump start things comes from.

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« Reply #9151 on: December 01, 2011, 06:54:34 pm »
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Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  42%, -1.

Disapprove:  50%, +1.
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J. J.

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« Reply #9152 on: December 01, 2011, 07:29:13 pm »
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Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

We'll see if this is the case after today's massive rally over the next couple of days.

I think Nov unemployment comes out Friday.  If it is positive, relatively speaking, it will be difficult to distinguish the two.  Jobless claims below 400,000 for a month normally means at least low six figure job growth.

That's initial claims per week.

It was above 400,000 today.

Right, but 400,000 is roughly the "people sense improvement" level for that variable.  It did rise again, but it has averaged below 400,000 over several weeks.  The last time that happened was in Jan and Feb when we had roughly 200K job growth for the month.

I thought the over/under number was about 375,000.

400,000 points to 9.1% unemployment.
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« Reply #9153 on: December 02, 2011, 10:30:26 am »
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Well we just had a jobs report that looks Reagan 1984 esque on the surface.  In reality, of course it's not that great, but we will have to see which number matters more psychologically. 
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« Reply #9154 on: December 02, 2011, 11:15:14 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, u.

Disapprove 55%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.

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« Reply #9155 on: December 02, 2011, 05:21:32 pm »
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Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  42%, u.

Disapprove:  50%, u.

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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
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« Reply #9156 on: December 02, 2011, 08:24:19 pm »
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hahahah, Huntsman's ads are great.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/12/02/huntsman_hits_romney.html
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« Reply #9157 on: December 03, 2011, 10:34:05 am »
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Obama Average Approval Rating November 2011 (Gallup)

43% Approve

49% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Roosevelt: 58/37 (November 1939)

Truman: 54/33 (November 1947) AND 23/61 (November 1951)

Eisenhower: 78/13 (November 1955)

Kennedy: 58/30 (November 1963)

Johnson: 42/46 (November 1967)

Nixon: 49/37 (November 1971)

Ford: 43/45 (November 1975)

Carter: 35/52 (November 1979)

Reagan: 53/37 (November 1983)

Bush I: 55/37 (November 1991)

Clinton: 52/41 (November 1995)

Bush II: 52/45 (November 2003)
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« Reply #9158 on: December 03, 2011, 12:37:31 pm »
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Obama Average Approval Rating November 2011 (Gallup)

43% Approve

49% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Roosevelt: 58/37 (November 1939)

Truman: 54/33 (November 1947) AND 23/61 (November 1951)

Eisenhower: 78/13 (November 1955)

Kennedy: 58/30 (November 1963)

Johnson: 42/46 (November 1967)

Nixon: 49/37 (November 1971)

Ford: 43/45 (November 1975)

Carter: 35/52 (November 1979)

Reagan: 53/37 (November 1983)

Bush I: 55/37 (November 1991)

Clinton: 52/41 (November 1995)

Bush II: 52/45 (November 2003)

Truman was popular in the fall of 47?!  When did he start cratering to fall into the 30's by the summer of 48?
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« Reply #9159 on: December 03, 2011, 04:39:49 pm »
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Obama Average Approval Rating November 2011 (Gallup)

43% Approve

49% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Roosevelt: 58/37 (November 1939)

Truman: 54/33 (November 1947) AND 23/61 (November 1951)

Eisenhower: 78/13 (November 1955)

Kennedy: 58/30 (November 1963)

Johnson: 42/46 (November 1967)

Nixon: 49/37 (November 1971)

Ford: 43/45 (November 1975)

Carter: 35/52 (November 1979)

Reagan: 53/37 (November 1983)

Bush I: 55/37 (November 1991)

Clinton: 52/41 (November 1995)

Bush II: 52/45 (November 2003)

Truman was popular in the fall of 47?!  When did he start cratering to fall into the 30's by the summer of 48?

The Korean War. I'm going to guess that as the front line sagged southward so did President Truman's approval rating. The war also got increasingly unpopular as it dragged on.
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« Reply #9160 on: December 03, 2011, 07:21:24 pm »
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Obama Average Approval Rating November 2011 (Gallup)

43% Approve

49% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Roosevelt: 58/37 (November 1939)

Truman: 54/33 (November 1947) AND 23/61 (November 1951)

Eisenhower: 78/13 (November 1955)

Kennedy: 58/30 (November 1963)

Johnson: 42/46 (November 1967)

Nixon: 49/37 (November 1971)

Ford: 43/45 (November 1975)

Carter: 35/52 (November 1979)

Reagan: 53/37 (November 1983)

Bush I: 55/37 (November 1991)

Clinton: 52/41 (November 1995)

Bush II: 52/45 (November 2003)

Truman was popular in the fall of 47?!  When did he start cratering to fall into the 30's by the summer of 48?

The Korean War. I'm going to guess that as the front line sagged southward so did President Truman's approval rating. The war also got increasingly unpopular as it dragged on.

Goldmined.
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« Reply #9161 on: December 04, 2011, 06:06:41 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, +2.

Disapprove 54%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.


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« Reply #9162 on: December 04, 2011, 06:08:14 am »
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Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  41%, -1.

Disapprove:  51%, +1.

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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

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« Reply #9163 on: December 04, 2011, 09:51:41 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -3.

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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9164 on: December 04, 2011, 01:49:28 pm »
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Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  44%, +3.

Disapprove:  49%, -2.

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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

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« Reply #9165 on: December 05, 2011, 02:50:21 pm »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 53%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -1.

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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9166 on: December 05, 2011, 02:52:13 pm »
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Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  43%, -1.

Disapprove:  49%, u.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9167 on: December 06, 2011, 10:43:34 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9168 on: December 06, 2011, 02:40:33 pm »
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Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  41%, -2.

Disapprove:  51%, +2.

If consistent, it is getting close to that point of no return.

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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9169 on: December 06, 2011, 03:37:10 pm »
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Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  41%, -2.

Disapprove:  51%, +2.

If consistent, it is getting close to that point of no return.



But with Gallup - nothing is consistent
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« Reply #9170 on: December 06, 2011, 03:43:28 pm »
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A bump is coming. Get ready for Happy New Year. War is over.
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« Reply #9171 on: December 06, 2011, 07:47:08 pm »
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A bump is coming. Get ready for Happy New Year. War is over.
If you want it.
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« Reply #9172 on: December 07, 2011, 10:10:08 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.


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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9173 on: December 07, 2011, 10:13:17 am »
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But with Gallup - nothing is consistent

There is basically a point on Gallup where an incumbent president's numbers cannot recover.  It is about 40% or lower in the first year, on the weekly numbers.  Obama is not there.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9174 on: December 07, 2011, 12:23:56 pm »
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But with Gallup - nothing is consistent

There is basically a point on Gallup where an incumbent president's numbers cannot recover.  It is about 40% or lower in the first year, on the weekly numbers.  Obama is not there.
Clinton was below 40% in June of '93.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116584/presidential-approval-ratings-bill-clinton.aspx
The first year doesn't mean much. That's why it's the time for bold action. The Presidency is a ticking clock and approval gets more important every minute.
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I was naturally suited to be a lawyer, almost from birth. It was as if, almost, God had willed it. He meant for me to be here, to punish you, and then punish you some more.
I refuse to die a martyrs death here, because you know why?  Martyrs are still dead.
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