The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[asexual trans victimologist]

Obama Average Approval Rating November 2011 (Gallup)

43% Approve

49% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Roosevelt: 58/37 (November 1939)

Truman: 54/33 (November 1947) AND 23/61 (November 1951)

Eisenhower: 78/13 (November 1955)

Kennedy: 58/30 (November 1963)

Johnson: 42/46 (November 1967)

Nixon: 49/37 (November 1971)

Ford: 43/45 (November 1975)

Carter: 35/52 (November 1979)

Reagan: 53/37 (November 1983)

Bush I: 55/37 (November 1991)

Clinton: 52/41 (November 1995)

Bush II: 52/45 (November 2003)

Truman was popular in the fall of 47?!  When did he start cratering to fall into the 30's by the summer of 48?

The Korean War. I'm going to guess that as the front line sagged southward so did President Truman's approval rating. The war also got increasingly unpopular as it dragged on.

Goldmined.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, +2.

Disapprove 54%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.

[J. J.]

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  41%, -1.

Disapprove:  51%, +1.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -3.

[J. J.]

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  44%, +3.

Disapprove:  49%, -2.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 53%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -1.

[J. J.]

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  43%, -1.

Disapprove:  49%, u.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

[J. J.]

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  41%, -2.

Disapprove:  51%, +2.

If consistent, it is getting close to that point of no return.

[Secretary Polnut]

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  41%, -2.

Disapprove:  51%, +2.

If consistent, it is getting close to that point of no return.

But with Gallup - nothing is consistent

[memphis]

A bump is coming. Get ready for Happy New Year. War is over.

[A cowboy always follows his beard]

A bump is coming. Get ready for Happy New Year. War is over.

If you want it.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.

[J. J.]

But with Gallup - nothing is consistent

There is basically a point on Gallup where an incumbent president's numbers cannot recover.  It is about 40% or lower in the first year, on the weekly numbers.  Obama is not there.

[memphis]

But with Gallup - nothing is consistent

There is basically a point on Gallup where an incumbent president's numbers cannot recover.  It is about 40% or lower in the first year, on the weekly numbers.  Obama is not there.

Clinton was below 40% in June of '93.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116584/presidential-approval-ratings-bill-clinton.aspx
The first year doesn't mean much. That's why it's the time for bold action. The Presidency is a ticking clock and approval gets more important every minute.

[J. J.]

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  41%, u.

Disapprove:  51%, u.

If consistent, it is getting close to that point of no return.

[J. J.]

But with Gallup - nothing is consistent

There is basically a point on Gallup where an incumbent president's numbers cannot recover.  It is about 40% or lower in the first year, on the weekly numbers.  Obama is not there.

Clinton was below 40% in June of '93.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116584/presidential-approval-ratings-bill-clinton.aspx
The first year doesn't mean much. That's why it's the time for bold action. The Presidency is a ticking clock and approval gets more important every minute.

June of 1993 was not December of 1995.  Reagan was actually in the 30's in late 1982 early 1983.  He was around 50% at this point.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, u.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

[J. J.]

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  42%, +1.

Disapprove:  50%, -1.

[memphis]

But with Gallup - nothing is consistent

There is basically a point on Gallup where an incumbent president's numbers cannot recover.  It is about 40% or lower in the first year, on the weekly numbers.  Obama is not there.

Clinton was below 40% in June of '93.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116584/presidential-approval-ratings-bill-clinton.aspx
The first year doesn't mean much. That's why it's the time for bold action. The Presidency is a ticking clock and approval gets more important every minute.

June of 1993 was not December of 1995.  Reagan was actually in the 30's in late 1982 early 1983.  He was around 50% at this point.

You said first year. Did you mean last year?

[J. J.]

But with Gallup - nothing is consistent

There is basically a point on Gallup where an incumbent president's numbers cannot recover.  It is about 40% or lower in the first year, on the weekly numbers.  Obama is not there.

Clinton was below 40% in June of '93.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116584/presidential-approval-ratings-bill-clinton.aspx
The first year doesn't mean much. That's why it's the time for bold action. The Presidency is a ticking clock and approval gets more important every minute.

June of 1993 was not December of 1995.  Reagan was actually in the 30's in late 1982 early 1983.  He was around 50% at this point.

You said first year. Did you mean last year?

Yes, I look at the last 18 months and the last 12 months.

[memphis]

But with Gallup - nothing is consistent

There is basically a point on Gallup where an incumbent president's numbers cannot recover.  It is about 40% or lower in the first year, on the weekly numbers.  Obama is not there.

Clinton was below 40% in June of '93.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116584/presidential-approval-ratings-bill-clinton.aspx
The first year doesn't mean much. That's why it's the time for bold action. The Presidency is a ticking clock and approval gets more important every minute.

June of 1993 was not December of 1995.  Reagan was actually in the 30's in late 1982 early 1983.  He was around 50% at this point.

You said first year. Did you mean last year?

Yes, I look at the last 18 months and the last 12 months.

In that case, the counter example is Truman. Below 40% in the 1948, but he still won re-election despite third party runs by both his liberal flank and the Dixiecrat wing of the party.

[True Federalist]

In that case, the counter example is Truman. Below 40% in the 1948, but he still won re-election despite third party runs by both his liberal flank and the Dixiecrat wing of the party.

Truman is a counter example unlikely to ever be repeated.  Everyone was so sure Dewey that Dewey was mouthing platitudes instead of stump speeches for the last month or so, and there was no polling to tell him otherwise.

If Dewey had even run a marginal campaign at the end, he could have easily have gotten at least this:



Which would have given Dewey a narrow 267 EV win (266 were needed in 1948) tho Truman would have still won in the PV.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -1.

Disapprove 55%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.


There has been a slight upswing in Strongly Approve, but is not reflected in the rest of his numbers.  It could indicate that his base is coming back.

[J. J.]

Truman is a counter example unlikely to ever be repeated.  Everyone was so sure Dewey that Dewey was mouthing platitudes instead of stump speeches for the last month or so, and there was no polling to tell him otherwise.

Which would have given Dewey a narrow 267 EV win (266 were needed in 1948) tho Truman would have still won in the PV.

I think that there was a noticeable change post Watergate.  Both Eisenhower and LBJ had a lower vote percentage that their "low during the year before, (LYB)" approval numbers on Gallup. They had 68% and 73% LYB, respectively.  Truman gained about 12 points on his LYB. Nixon about 11 points.

The LYB gain, with rounding, was since then as follows:

Ford:  9 points
Carter: 9 points
Reagan: 8 points
GHWB: 8 points
Clinton:  7 points
GWB:  5 points

Obama is at 42% on the weekly Gallup.  He improves at just above average with any other president, he wins re-election.  He could, obviously, be in better shape, but it is still winnable.