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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 657255 times)
Yank2133
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« Reply #9500 on: February 29, 2012, 09:44:26 pm »
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Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

Yes, if people think the alternative sucks.(in this case Romney).

People may not be satisfy with Obama, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for him.



Based on what though? I'm sure there's democrats who disapprove of Obama but won't vote GOP in the election. The same could be said for Bush 8 years ago. The issue is independents who don't pay attention except every 4 years for a week or so. That's who actually decides elections. What you're saying maybe true for a few but again, people look for change if they aren't satisfied. You can think that Romney sucks but that doesn't mean people will stick by Obama under poor circumstances. History and patterns doesn't always pan out and has exceptions but most times follows suit. Romney will win if Obama's approval rating is below 49% and the same goes for just about anyone who runs.

Polling numbers, take Ohio for example. The President is underwater in Ohio, yet he still has a lead against Romney, Santorum etc. Why because the voters don't like the alternatives. Presidential elections are more about choices then referendum on the incumbent.

And about independents, Mitt is losing them rapidly to Obama if you look at the polls. At this point, Mitt has to hope for another economic downturn. If the election were held today, Obama would win by a comfortable margin even at a 45/46% approval rating. The electoral map and recent polling data are too much in his favor.

Yes and those who don't approve will go for the GOP nominee unless Obama is above 49%. 2/3 of voters break for the incumbent if his approval rating is above 50% and if it is below 50%, then 2/3 break for the challenger. It's a similar idea to having to choose if you want to live 4 more years with someone you're not happy with. This trend is shown in actual votes rather than polls.

According to your logic, Oregon would flip for Romney because Obama is below 49% there......which we know isn't going to happen.
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« Reply #9501 on: February 29, 2012, 09:51:37 pm »
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I think Bush was around 47-50% around election time in 2004 and won by about 3 points. So on average Obama needs to be around 46-49% to win I would think. I think if there was a snap election now, with a month to campaign, Obama would barely win against Romney, by a few more points against Santorum and would destroy Gingrich and Paul. If he can more or less keep the numbers he has right now through election day, he should be able to win.

Bush's low point on long period Gallup (roughly weekly) was 46% in 2004.  Obama's lowest has been 45%, which he has been at for the last fortnight; he was that low in January as well.  He ended with 50.73% of the popular vote, or about a 2.5 point margin.

We don't know if Obama has reached his low point yet.  Bush's low point was in May.  Obama loses the comparison to Bush, at this point.
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J. J.

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« Reply #9502 on: February 29, 2012, 11:11:24 pm »
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Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

Yes, if people think the alternative sucks.(in this case Romney).

People may not be satisfy with Obama, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for him.



Based on what though? I'm sure there's democrats who disapprove of Obama but won't vote GOP in the election. The same could be said for Bush 8 years ago. The issue is independents who don't pay attention except every 4 years for a week or so. That's who actually decides elections. What you're saying maybe true for a few but again, people look for change if they aren't satisfied. You can think that Romney sucks but that doesn't mean people will stick by Obama under poor circumstances. History and patterns doesn't always pan out and has exceptions but most times follows suit. Romney will win if Obama's approval rating is below 49% and the same goes for just about anyone who runs.

Polling numbers, take Ohio for example. The President is underwater in Ohio, yet he still has a lead against Romney, Santorum etc. Why because the voters don't like the alternatives. Presidential elections are more about choices then referendum on the incumbent.

And about independents, Mitt is losing them rapidly to Obama if you look at the polls. At this point, Mitt has to hope for another economic downturn. If the election were held today, Obama would win by a comfortable margin even at a 45/46% approval rating. The electoral map and recent polling data are too much in his favor.

Yes and those who don't approve will go for the GOP nominee unless Obama is above 49%. 2/3 of voters break for the incumbent if his approval rating is above 50% and if it is below 50%, then 2/3 break for the challenger. It's a similar idea to having to choose if you want to live 4 more years with someone you're not happy with. This trend is shown in actual votes rather than polls.

According to your logic, Oregon would flip for Romney because Obama is below 49% there......which we know isn't going to happen.


Again based on what? Look OR has been pretty close with the exception of 2008. It's February and I'm not ruling anyone out of many states until late October. In 2000 Bush could've won that state and was close again in 2004. Romeny is moderate enough to be competitive. Things may improve for Obama in particular in Oregon and so he'd win but OR is nowhere near a done deal at this point. Also, my logic is based on the trends of polling in presidential elections.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #9503 on: March 01, 2012, 12:42:58 am »
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Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure. Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy? If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

Yes, if people think the alternative sucks.(in this case Romney).

People may not be satisfy with Obama, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for him.



Based on what though? I'm sure there's democrats who disapprove of Obama but won't vote GOP in the election. The same could be said for Bush 8 years ago. The issue is independents who don't pay attention except every 4 years for a week or so. That's who actually decides elections. What you're saying maybe true for a few but again, people look for change if they aren't satisfied. You can think that Romney sucks but that doesn't mean people will stick by Obama under poor circumstances. History and patterns doesn't always pan out and has exceptions but most times follows suit. Romney will win if Obama's approval rating is below 49% and the same goes for just about anyone who runs.

Polling numbers, take Ohio for example. The President is underwater in Ohio, yet he still has a lead against Romney, Santorum etc. Why because the voters don't like the alternatives. Presidential elections are more about choices then referendum on the incumbent.

And about independents, Mitt is losing them rapidly to Obama if you look at the polls. At this point, Mitt has to hope for another economic downturn. If the election were held today, Obama would win by a comfortable margin even at a 45/46% approval rating. The electoral map and recent polling data are too much in his favor.

Yes and those who don't approve will go for the GOP nominee unless Obama is above 49%. 2/3 of voters break for the incumbent if his approval rating is above 50% and if it is below 50%, then 2/3 break for the challenger. It's a similar idea to having to choose if you want to live 4 more years with someone you're not happy with. This trend is shown in actual votes rather than polls.

According to your logic, Oregon would flip for Romney because Obama is below 49% there......which we know isn't going to happen.


Again based on what? Look OR has been pretty close with the exception of 2008. It's February and I'm not ruling anyone out of many states until late October. In 2000 Bush could've won that state and was close again in 2004. Romeny is moderate enough to be competitive. Things may improve for Obama in particular in Oregon and so he'd win but OR is nowhere near a done deal at this point. Also, my logic is based on the trends of polling in presidential elections.

A GOP nominee hasn't carried Oregon since Reagan did it 84. PPP has Obama +12 in Oregon, it is laughable if you think it would a competitive state.  

Obama could be at 45% in November and he would still beat Romney by double digits in Oregon.

Your logic is based on historical trends, but not actually reality at the moment. Romney is a historically weak candidate whom's negatives are skyrocketing.  People may be displeased with Obama, but they aren't displeased enough to give the presidency over to Mitt Romney and current polling reflects that.

There is a reason why Obama polling against Romney has improved the past couple of weeks, the more they hear Mitt the less they like.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2012, 12:51:55 am by Yank2133 »Logged
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« Reply #9504 on: March 01, 2012, 12:56:34 am »
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Right everything is going perfect for Obama and you shouldn't have anything to worry about. It sounds like your party is in great shape and the GOP is done forever. You're right on with that. Look at 2000 which was closer ago than 1984. I'm not betting on Romney winning Oregon but it should be competitive.
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« Reply #9505 on: March 01, 2012, 01:08:38 am »
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Right everything is going perfect for Obama and you shouldn't have anything to worry about. It sounds like your party is in great shape and the GOP is done forever. You're right on with that. Look at 2000 which was closer ago than 1984. I'm not betting on Romney winning Oregon but it should be competitive.

Things can change, but at the moment Obama would beat Romney by a comfortable margin....and yes compared to the GOP, we are in pretty decent shape.

I repeat, Oregon will not be competitive. The state hasn't been one by a GOP candidate in 28 years and has been trending more Democratic since 2004. Romney can go ahead and waste money there, but the state will be in Barack Obama's column in November.
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« Reply #9506 on: March 01, 2012, 02:26:38 am »
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Right everything is going perfect for Obama and you shouldn't have anything to worry about. It sounds like your party is in great shape and the GOP is done forever. You're right on with that. Look at 2000 which was closer ago than 1984. I'm not betting on Romney winning Oregon but it should be competitive.

Things can change, but at the moment Obama would beat Romney by a comfortable margin....and yes compared to the GOP, we are in pretty decent shape.

I repeat, Oregon will not be competitive. The state hasn't been one by a GOP candidate in 28 years and has been trending more Democratic since 2004. Romney can go ahead and waste money there, but the state will be in Barack Obama's column in November.

Right now, with his poll numbers, I would not rule out Obama losing Oregon.
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« Reply #9507 on: March 01, 2012, 02:52:18 am »
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a lot of delusional people in this thread. Hell would have to freeze over for Obama to lose polarized Oregon.
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« Reply #9508 on: March 01, 2012, 04:40:22 am »
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Obama at 42-53 approval in Kansas, says SurveyUSA:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0817cb1b-e6e3-4c23-b86a-9104d4230d45
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« Reply #9509 on: March 01, 2012, 08:50:49 am »
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Right everything is going perfect for Obama and you shouldn't have anything to worry about. It sounds like your party is in great shape and the GOP is done forever. You're right on with that. Look at 2000 which was closer ago than 1984. I'm not betting on Romney winning Oregon but it should be competitive.

For President Obama to lose there would have to be economic, military, or diplomatic disasters that ideologues and partisan hacks can see happening as vividly as drunks can see "pink effeluntsh, osshifer" after some cop pulls them over for driving erratically. In essence he has pleased the people who voted for him, such ordinarily enough to win re-election after a previous election that was not a hair-thin victory. He is a proved master as a campaigner; barring a disaster, all that he must do to win is to get the formidable campaign machine of 2008 out of mothballs and make clear that he has an agenda for a Second Term.

Unless high petroleum prices suddenly discredit this President he seems likely to win re-election with essentially the same sort of election as in 2008. My seat-of-the-pants estimate is 370 electoral votes with a standard deviation of 30.

   
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« Reply #9510 on: March 01, 2012, 08:55:26 am »
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That is very close to the voting result in Kansas in 2008. Incumbents usually gain an average of 6% in voting share from early approval ratings; should such hold in Kansas, then the President would barely lose the State. In essence President Obama wins Kansas only in the wake of a collapse of the Republican nominee.
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« Reply #9511 on: March 01, 2012, 10:12:05 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 51%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  40%, u.

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« Reply #9512 on: March 01, 2012, 12:55:54 pm »
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Game changer.
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« Reply #9513 on: March 01, 2012, 01:19:25 pm »
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Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  46%, +1

Disapprove:  49%, -1

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« Reply #9514 on: March 01, 2012, 02:00:31 pm »
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Why would anyone approve someone who trashed our economy by making bigger government and destroying business? The only good thing about Obama is that he killed Osama Bin laden.
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« Reply #9515 on: March 01, 2012, 02:17:52 pm »
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Why would anyone approve someone who trashed our economy by making bigger government and destroying business? The only good thing about Obama is that he killed Osama Bin laden.

Two things,

First, welcome to the forum!

Second, please refrain from commentary that don't have to do with the approval ratings. Granted, you phrased that in such a way as to be relevant, but we have plenty of boards for more broad discussion of President Obama and his GOP rivals.
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« Reply #9516 on: March 01, 2012, 02:58:04 pm »
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Why would anyone approve someone who trashed our economy by making bigger government and destroying business?

Vapid right-wing talking points, eh? Welcome to the forum, Mitt!
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« Reply #9517 on: March 01, 2012, 02:59:59 pm »
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Why would anyone approve someone who trashed our economy by making bigger government and destroying business? The only good thing about Obama is that he killed Osama Bin laden.

1. Welcome! I think you're the only Mormon we have on the forum, unless you count Tweed, who's thinking of converting.
2. Yes, there are other places to discuss this. There's a whole economics board, as well as US General and the rest of the 2012 board for general discussion of Obama's record and how it relates to his reelection prospects. This thread is pretty much just for statistical repository and analysis.
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« Reply #9518 on: March 01, 2012, 10:19:23 pm »
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Did anyone see the entusiasm numbers. Democrats who are enthusiastic are at 44% and Republicans at 53%. This tells me that the Democrats are way over confident in winning this fall. Gas prices seem to have him down to 48% approval rating as well.
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« Reply #9519 on: March 01, 2012, 10:31:39 pm »
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Did anyone see the entusiasm numbers. Democrats who are enthusiastic are at 44% and Republicans at 53%. This tells me that the Democrats are way over confident in winning this fall. Gas prices seem to have him down to 48% approval rating as well.

From a purely objective position, the Dems aren't as enthusiastic because unlike the GOP they aren't being fired up by a primary race.
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« Reply #9520 on: March 01, 2012, 10:40:06 pm »
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Did anyone see the entusiasm numbers. Democrats who are enthusiastic are at 44% and Republicans at 53%. This tells me that the Democrats are way over confident in winning this fall. Gas prices seem to have him down to 48% approval rating as well.

From a purely objective position, the Dems aren't as enthusiastic because unlike the GOP they aren't being fired up by a primary race.

I'll give you that I may have slightly overstated what the numbers say, but the GOP still wants Obama out of office more than Democrats want him to stay. Hardly anyone can see anything positive in the guy. Clinton at least cared about people, Bush had a goofy personality that we could all relate to, no one was colder than FDR but the country saw how much he loved the game of politics. Obama seems like he doesn't enjoy anything about being president other than the perks of a $180,000 vacation for his wife and flying around on fancy jets. If anything he seems annoyed by the fact he has to compromise and make decisions. He can't stand at all the fact that anyone disagrees with him. These are a few reasons that people in his own party aren't thrilled about him. His opponents all have passion for what they believe in. Romney wants to help those who are struggling by using his experience in the private sector, Santorum stands by his family and values, Gingrich loves leading a conservative movement, and Paul is very proud of his ideaology.  With Obama we pretty much see a sarcastic smart ass who argues with anyone over anything like the health care bill for example. He sounded like a teenager arguing with his parents while they told him no. Stubborn til the end.
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« Reply #9521 on: March 01, 2012, 10:49:35 pm »
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Did anyone see the entusiasm numbers. Democrats who are enthusiastic are at 44% and Republicans at 53%. This tells me that the Democrats are way over confident in winning this fall. Gas prices seem to have him down to 48% approval rating as well.

From a purely objective position, the Dems aren't as enthusiastic because unlike the GOP they aren't being fired up by a primary race.

That helps, but Obama is campaigning.  Was turnout up in MI from 2008?

I'm looking at the weekly Gallup and the numbers are not good.  Obama can recover, at this point, but this is starting to look pretty grim.

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« Reply #9522 on: March 01, 2012, 10:58:32 pm »
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He was recovering until gas prices went up a week or 2 ago. Turnout in the GOP primaries isn't much different from 2008. Anything can happen either way at this point because it's too early to predict anything with the exception of maybe 20 states. As of right now I think it will be 51-49 one way or the other and come down to Ohio.
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« Reply #9523 on: March 01, 2012, 11:03:59 pm »
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He was recovering until gas prices went up a week or 2 ago. Turnout in the GOP primaries isn't much different from 2008. Anything can happen either way at this point because it's too early to predict anything with the exception of maybe 20 states. As of right now I think it will be 51-49 one way or the other and come down to Ohio.

Actually, they were not really better in January.  Obama arguably improved slightly in the first fortnight of February then dropped back.  The increase on Gallup's weeklies wasn't that dramatic either.
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« Reply #9524 on: March 02, 2012, 09:37:14 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 52%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  40%, u.


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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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