The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

Right everything is going perfect for Obama and you shouldn't have anything to worry about. It sounds like your party is in great shape and the GOP is done forever. You're right on with that. Look at 2000 which was closer ago than 1984. I'm not betting on Romney winning Oregon but it should be competitive.

For President Obama to lose there would have to be economic, military, or diplomatic disasters that ideologues and partisan hacks can see happening as vividly as drunks can see "pink effeluntsh, osshifer" after some cop pulls them over for driving erratically. In essence he has pleased the people who voted for him, such ordinarily enough to win re-election after a previous election that was not a hair-thin victory. He is a proved master as a campaigner; barring a disaster, all that he must do to win is to get the formidable campaign machine of 2008 out of mothballs and make clear that he has an agenda for a Second Term.

Unless high petroleum prices suddenly discredit this President he seems likely to win re-election with essentially the same sort of election as in 2008. My seat-of-the-pants estimate is 370 electoral votes with a standard deviation of 30.

   

[pbrower2a]

Obama at 42-53 approval in Kansas, says SurveyUSA:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0817cb1b-e6e3-4c23-b86a-9104d4230d45

That is very close to the voting result in Kansas in 2008. Incumbents usually gain an average of 6% in voting share from early approval ratings; should such hold in Kansas, then the President would barely lose the State. In essence President Obama wins Kansas only in the wake of a collapse of the Republican nominee.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 51%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  40%, u.

[argentarius]

Obama at 42-53 approval in Kansas, says SurveyUSA:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0817cb1b-e6e3-4c23-b86a-9104d4230d45

Game changer.

[J. J.]

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  46%, +1

Disapprove:  49%, -1

[BYUmormon]

Why would anyone approve someone who trashed our economy by making bigger government and destroying business? The only good thing about Obama is that he killed Osama Bin laden.

[Wiz from Wis in Mass]

Why would anyone approve someone who trashed our economy by making bigger government and destroying business? The only good thing about Obama is that he killed Osama Bin laden.

Two things,

First, welcome to the forum!

Second, please refrain from commentary that don't have to do with the approval ratings. Granted, you phrased that in such a way as to be relevant, but we have plenty of boards for more broad discussion of President Obama and his GOP rivals.

[Oakvale]

Why would anyone approve someone who trashed our economy by making bigger government and destroying business?

Vapid right-wing talking points, eh? Welcome to the forum, Mitt!

[asexual trans victimologist]

Why would anyone approve someone who trashed our economy by making bigger government and destroying business? The only good thing about Obama is that he killed Osama Bin laden.

1. Welcome! I think you're the only Mormon we have on the forum, unless you count Tweed, who's thinking of converting.
2. Yes, there are other places to discuss this. There's a whole economics board, as well as US General and the rest of the 2012 board for general discussion of Obama's record and how it relates to his reelection prospects. This thread is pretty much just for statistical repository and analysis.

[Tidewater_Wave]

Did anyone see the entusiasm numbers. Democrats who are enthusiastic are at 44% and Republicans at 53%. This tells me that the Democrats are way over confident in winning this fall. Gas prices seem to have him down to 48% approval rating as well.

[Secretary Polnut]

Did anyone see the entusiasm numbers. Democrats who are enthusiastic are at 44% and Republicans at 53%. This tells me that the Democrats are way over confident in winning this fall. Gas prices seem to have him down to 48% approval rating as well.

From a purely objective position, the Dems aren't as enthusiastic because unlike the GOP they aren't being fired up by a primary race.

[Tidewater_Wave]

Did anyone see the entusiasm numbers. Democrats who are enthusiastic are at 44% and Republicans at 53%. This tells me that the Democrats are way over confident in winning this fall. Gas prices seem to have him down to 48% approval rating as well.

From a purely objective position, the Dems aren't as enthusiastic because unlike the GOP they aren't being fired up by a primary race.

I'll give you that I may have slightly overstated what the numbers say, but the GOP still wants Obama out of office more than Democrats want him to stay. Hardly anyone can see anything positive in the guy. Clinton at least cared about people, Bush had a goofy personality that we could all relate to, no one was colder than FDR but the country saw how much he loved the game of politics. Obama seems like he doesn't enjoy anything about being president other than the perks of a $180,000 vacation for his wife and flying around on fancy jets. If anything he seems annoyed by the fact he has to compromise and make decisions. He can't stand at all the fact that anyone disagrees with him. These are a few reasons that people in his own party aren't thrilled about him. His opponents all have passion for what they believe in. Romney wants to help those who are struggling by using his experience in the private sector, Santorum stands by his family and values, Gingrich loves leading a conservative movement, and Paul is very proud of his ideaology.  With Obama we pretty much see a sarcastic smart ass who argues with anyone over anything like the health care bill for example. He sounded like a teenager arguing with his parents while they told him no. Stubborn til the end.

[J. J.]

Did anyone see the entusiasm numbers. Democrats who are enthusiastic are at 44% and Republicans at 53%. This tells me that the Democrats are way over confident in winning this fall. Gas prices seem to have him down to 48% approval rating as well.

From a purely objective position, the Dems aren't as enthusiastic because unlike the GOP they aren't being fired up by a primary race.

That helps, but Obama is campaigning.  Was turnout up in MI from 2008?

I'm looking at the weekly Gallup and the numbers are not good.  Obama can recover, at this point, but this is starting to look pretty grim.

[Tidewater_Wave]

He was recovering until gas prices went up a week or 2 ago. Turnout in the GOP primaries isn't much different from 2008. Anything can happen either way at this point because it's too early to predict anything with the exception of maybe 20 states. As of right now I think it will be 51-49 one way or the other and come down to Ohio.

[J. J.]

He was recovering until gas prices went up a week or 2 ago. Turnout in the GOP primaries isn't much different from 2008. Anything can happen either way at this point because it's too early to predict anything with the exception of maybe 20 states. As of right now I think it will be 51-49 one way or the other and come down to Ohio.

Actually, they were not really better in January.  Obama arguably improved slightly in the first fortnight of February then dropped back.  The increase on Gallup's weeklies wasn't that dramatic either.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 52%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  40%, u.

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen made their tracking sample more Republican once again:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

February was 36.0% GOP, 32.4% DEM and 31.6% OTH among Adults.

Rasmussen is using a 3-month average for their tracking polls.

"Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 35.8% Republicans, 32.5% Democrats, and 31.7% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly larger advantage for the Republicans."

Which means that Rasmussen is probably using a 37% GOP, 32% DEM, 31% OTH sample right now for their likely voter tracking polls ...

[King]

GOP didn't even have +5 when Bush was re-elected.

[Democratic Hawk]

GOP didn't even have +5 when Bush was re-elected.

In 2004, Democrats and Republicans each comprised 37% of the electorate. Independents, at 28%, narrowly broke for Kerry (49-48). It could be said that Bush 43 owed his re-election to 'Bush Democrats'

[Tidewater_Wave]

Republicans leading is a tremendous sign for them. Even if we were down by 5 I'd still bet on us winning the house. If I remember correctly more people voted Democrat for congress in 2002 and 2004 and the GOP still won. I don't mean in terms of party turnout, but based on the percentages of people voting for a candidate in either party throughout the nation.

[J. J.]

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  47%, +1

Disapprove:  48%, -1

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -2.

Disapprove 53%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  41%, u.

Yesterday, I had Strongly Disapprove even at 40.  It had gone up to 41.

[Oakvale]

This thread is great because you've got J.J. holding court on how Obama is looking "grim" according to the approval numbers despite the fact that almost every poll shows him comfortably winning re-election.

[J. J.]

This thread is great because you've got J.J. holding court on how Obama is looking "grim" according to the approval numbers despite the fact that almost every poll shows him comfortably winning re-election.

No, this thread is about approval numbers of an incumbent running for re-election.  It looks at historical numbers regarding how Obama is doing based on past presidents, some who were re-elect and some who were not.

And, yes, it is starting to look grim.

[ajb]

This thread is great because you've got J.J. holding court on how Obama is looking "grim" according to the approval numbers despite the fact that almost every poll shows him comfortably winning re-election.

No, this thread is about approval numbers of an incumbent running for re-election.  It looks at historical numbers regarding how Obama is doing based on past presidents, some who were re-elect and some who were not.

And, yes, it is starting to look grim.

Mind you, you know what looks really grim?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/28/fav-romney_n_725770.html