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| | |-+  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 645310 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #9525 on: March 02, 2012, 09:37:14 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 52%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  40%, u.


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« Reply #9526 on: March 02, 2012, 09:54:08 am »
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Rasmussen made their tracking sample more Republican once again:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

February was 36.0% GOP, 32.4% DEM and 31.6% OTH among Adults.

Rasmussen is using a 3-month average for their tracking polls.

Quote
"Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 35.8% Republicans, 32.5% Democrats, and 31.7% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly larger advantage for the Republicans."

Which means that Rasmussen is probably using a 37% GOP, 32% DEM, 31% OTH sample right now for their likely voter tracking polls ... Tongue
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« Reply #9527 on: March 02, 2012, 01:48:33 pm »
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GOP didn't even have +5 when Bush was re-elected.
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« Reply #9528 on: March 02, 2012, 02:18:51 pm »
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GOP didn't even have +5 when Bush was re-elected.

In 2004, Democrats and Republicans each comprised 37% of the electorate. Independents, at 28%, narrowly broke for Kerry (49-48). It could be said that Bush 43 owed his re-election to 'Bush Democrats'
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« Reply #9529 on: March 02, 2012, 04:55:30 pm »
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Republicans leading is a tremendous sign for them. Even if we were down by 5 I'd still bet on us winning the house. If I remember correctly more people voted Democrat for congress in 2002 and 2004 and the GOP still won. I don't mean in terms of party turnout, but based on the percentages of people voting for a candidate in either party throughout the nation.
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« Reply #9530 on: March 02, 2012, 04:58:25 pm »
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Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  47%, +1

Disapprove:  48%, -1


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J. J.

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« Reply #9531 on: March 03, 2012, 09:49:09 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -2.

Disapprove 53%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  41%, u.

Yesterday, I had Strongly Disapprove even at 40.  It had gone up to 41.

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J. J.

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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

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« Reply #9532 on: March 03, 2012, 11:08:45 am »
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This thread is great because you've got J.J. holding court on how Obama is looking "grim" according to the approval numbers despite the fact that almost every poll shows him comfortably winning re-election.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9533 on: March 03, 2012, 11:17:47 am »
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This thread is great because you've got J.J. holding court on how Obama is looking "grim" according to the approval numbers despite the fact that almost every poll shows him comfortably winning re-election.

No, this thread is about approval numbers of an incumbent running for re-election.  It looks at historical numbers regarding how Obama is doing based on past presidents, some who were re-elect and some who were not.

And, yes, it is starting to look grim.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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« Reply #9534 on: March 03, 2012, 11:22:11 am »
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This thread is great because you've got J.J. holding court on how Obama is looking "grim" according to the approval numbers despite the fact that almost every poll shows him comfortably winning re-election.

No, this thread is about approval numbers of an incumbent running for re-election.  It looks at historical numbers regarding how Obama is doing based on past presidents, some who were re-elect and some who were not.

And, yes, it is starting to look grim.

Mind you, you know what looks really grim?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/28/fav-romney_n_725770.html
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« Reply #9535 on: March 03, 2012, 11:41:56 am »
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It looks grim when you only look at the Rasmussen and Gallup numbers. Other pollsters have Obama around 50%.

Gallup and Rasmussen are not the only numbers out there. The fact that they poll everyday gives them just more media attention (and Atlas attention)
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« Reply #9536 on: March 03, 2012, 11:49:51 am »
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This thread is great because you've got J.J. holding court on how Obama is looking "grim" according to the approval numbers despite the fact that almost every poll shows him comfortably winning re-election.

No, this thread is about approval numbers of an incumbent running for re-election.  It looks at historical numbers regarding how Obama is doing based on past presidents, some who were re-elect and some who were not.

And, yes, it is starting to look grim.

Mind you, you know what looks really grim?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/28/fav-romney_n_725770.html

Romney isn't the President, yet.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9537 on: March 03, 2012, 11:50:51 am »
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And he won't be next year.
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« Reply #9538 on: March 03, 2012, 11:52:15 am »
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This thread is great because you've got J.J. holding court on how Obama is looking "grim" according to the approval numbers despite the fact that almost every poll shows him comfortably winning re-election.

No, this thread is about approval numbers of an incumbent running for re-election.  It looks at historical numbers regarding how Obama is doing based on past presidents, some who were re-elect and some who were not.

And, yes, it is starting to look grim.

Mind you, you know what looks really grim?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/28/fav-romney_n_725770.html

Romney isn't the President, yet.
Tell me, when was the last challenger who won with favorability numbers like Romney's?  Given your extensive thoughts on the relationship between presidential approval ratings and re-election prospects, I'm sure it's a question you've considered.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9539 on: March 03, 2012, 12:10:41 pm »
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This thread is great because you've got J.J. holding court on how Obama is looking "grim" according to the approval numbers despite the fact that almost every poll shows him comfortably winning re-election.

No, this thread is about approval numbers of an incumbent running for re-election.  It looks at historical numbers regarding how Obama is doing based on past presidents, some who were re-elect and some who were not.

And, yes, it is starting to look grim.

Mind you, you know what looks really grim?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/28/fav-romney_n_725770.html

Romney isn't the President, yet.
Tell me, when was the last challenger who won with favorability numbers like Romney's?  Given your extensive thoughts on the relationship between presidential approval ratings and re-election prospects, I'm sure it's a question you've considered.

Possibly: Clinton, 1992.  Reagan, 1980.  I know that the spring of 1992, Clinton was actually running third.

If you ask the question, which this thread is about, what president won re-election with numbers at or below 45% on Gallup at any point after January 1 on the year they were elected, the only answer is Truman since WW II.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9540 on: March 03, 2012, 12:14:24 pm »
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This thread is great because you've got J.J. holding court on how Obama is looking "grim" according to the approval numbers despite the fact that almost every poll shows him comfortably winning re-election.

No, this thread is about approval numbers of an incumbent running for re-election.  It looks at historical numbers regarding how Obama is doing based on past presidents, some who were re-elect and some who were not.

And, yes, it is starting to look grim.

Mind you, you know what looks really grim?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/28/fav-romney_n_725770.html

Romney isn't the President, yet.
Tell me, when was the last challenger who won with favorability numbers like Romney's?  Given your extensive thoughts on the relationship between presidential approval ratings and re-election prospects, I'm sure it's a question you've considered.

Possibly: Clinton, 1992.  Reagan, 1980.  I know that the spring of 1992, Clinton was actually running third.

If you ask the question, which this thread is about, what president won re-election with numbers at or below 45% on Gallup at any point after January 1 on the year they were elected, the only answer is Truman since WW II.

Did Clinton in March of 1992, and Reagan in March of 1980, also have unfavorable numbers nearly at 50%? I doubt it.

The thread is about Obama's approval ratings, not about whether a president has ever won re-election with an approval rating below 45%  at any point after January 1 in the year in which they were re-elected. And the popularity of the challenger would seem highly relevant to that thesis, especially at the margins, which is where we are here.
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« Reply #9541 on: March 03, 2012, 12:16:02 pm »
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And the 45% is a number from one pollster. Other poll show him higher than that.
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« Reply #9542 on: March 03, 2012, 12:29:32 pm »
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Did Clinton in March of 1992, and Reagan in March of 1980, also have unfavorable numbers nearly at 50%? I doubt it.

Almost certainly Clinton did (Flowers).  I'd expect Reagan did.  Bush was still challenging and won PA in April.

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The thread is about Obama's approval ratings, not about whether a president has ever won re-election with an approval rating below 45%  at any point after January 1 in the year in which they were re-elected. And the popularity of the challenger would seem highly relevant to that thesis, especially at the margins, which is where we are here.

This thread looks at Obama's popularity, and looks at it (in terms of Gallup), comparing it to past situations.  That has been here since it started.

There are threads which deal with the matchup, and you may want to post on those.  This is the discussion on just one set of numbers.

And the 45% is a number from one pollster. Other poll show him higher than that.

No, Gallup is the only for which we have 60 years of approval ratings.  It is useful, longer term, for comparisons (hence my citations of 1948).  Rasmussen didn't start until 1994.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9543 on: March 03, 2012, 12:40:48 pm »
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Well, yes, Gallup maybe around the longest, but just using their numbers as THE numbers to predict November?
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« Reply #9544 on: March 03, 2012, 01:03:10 pm »
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Well, yes, Gallup maybe around the longest, but just using their numbers as THE numbers to predict November?

Well, I'm not yet predicting.  The numbers looking grim, which they are, doesn't yet translate into losing.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9545 on: March 03, 2012, 01:06:36 pm »
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Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  48%, +1

Disapprove:  46%, -2



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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9546 on: March 03, 2012, 01:08:40 pm »
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Well, yes, Gallup maybe around the longest, but just using their numbers as THE numbers to predict November?

Well, I'm not yet predicting.  The numbers looking grim, which they are, doesn't yet translate into losing.

Yes, but they look grim if you only look at Gallup. They are much brighter when you look to other pollsters.
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« Reply #9547 on: March 03, 2012, 01:12:24 pm »
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Well, yes, Gallup maybe around the longest, but just using their numbers as THE numbers to predict November?

Well, I'm not yet predicting.  The numbers looking grim, which they are, doesn't yet translate into losing.

Yes, but they look grim if you only look at Gallup. They are much brighter when you look to other pollsters.

Not on the dailies.  The only other one we have is Rasmussen, and Obama is generally not doing well.

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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9548 on: March 03, 2012, 01:14:00 pm »
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No, Gallup is the only for which we have 60 years of approval ratings.  It is useful, longer term, for comparisons (hence my citations of 1948).  Rasmussen didn't start until 1994.

Why should their results from this year be any more useful than the results of another pollster?  It's not as if Gallup is polling the same people this year that they did 60 years ago, or are using the same people to poll as they did then.  Organizations change, and there is no basis for saying that the Gallup numbers for this year are more comparable to the Gallup numbers of 60 years ago than the Rasmussen numbers of this year.
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« Reply #9549 on: March 03, 2012, 01:18:08 pm »
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Well, yes, Gallup maybe around the longest, but just using their numbers as THE numbers to predict November?

Well, I'm not yet predicting.  The numbers looking grim, which they are, doesn't yet translate into losing.

Yes, but they look grim if you only look at Gallup. They are much brighter when you look to other pollsters.

Not on the dailies.  The only other one we have is Rasmussen, and Obama is generally not doing well.



The dailies aren't the only polls. The fact that you are polling every day doesn't make your poll automatically stronger than the other polls.

Rasmussen maybe has a Republican lean while Gallup's methods are outdated. I don't know if that is true, but it could make those polls less reliable.
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