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| | |-+  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 688378 times)
Torie
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« Reply #9725 on: April 16, 2012, 11:03:22 am »
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Instead of going to the expense of having an election, why don't we just do it by who Ras has ahead on  the day we would otherwise have one. If we had an election where the results differed from Ras's numbers, it would be due to Dem fraud anyway. So we could at once save money and have an "honest" election. Cool!
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J. J.
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« Reply #9726 on: April 16, 2012, 01:14:28 pm »
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Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  45%, -2.

Disapprove:  48%, +1.



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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
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The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9727 on: April 17, 2012, 08:43:51 am »
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Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  39%, -1.

I'm going busy over the next several weeks, so could someone else get these.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
BigSkyBob
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« Reply #9728 on: April 18, 2012, 12:43:37 pm »
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Gallop 4/18:
47(+1)-47(-1)

Presumably, 4/17 was
46(+1)-48(nc)

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« Reply #9729 on: April 18, 2012, 02:02:15 pm »
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I am now referring to Gallup as Gallop from now on.
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« Reply #9730 on: April 23, 2012, 12:11:31 pm »
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Obama reaches 50% on Gallup

50% Approve +3
44% Disapprove -1
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« Reply #9731 on: April 24, 2012, 01:48:41 pm »
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No Change on Gallup today. Obama Approval Rating Reminds Steady At 50%

Approve 50%
Disapprove 44%
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« Reply #9732 on: April 24, 2012, 07:02:00 pm »
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Better late than never.

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%,+1.

Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  41%, -2.

I suspect a bad sample will dropping out tomorrow.






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"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #9733 on: April 26, 2012, 10:26:47 am »
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Rasmussen:



4/26:
Total Approval       48%
Total Disapproval   51%


Strong Approve     27%
Strong Disapprove 40%
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« Reply #9734 on: April 26, 2012, 09:26:41 pm »
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For the third day in a row, Obama's at 50% at Gallup

Approve: 50% uc.

Disapprove: 44% uc.
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« Reply #9735 on: April 30, 2012, 12:07:07 am »
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Kansas (SurveyUSA):

43% Approve
49% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c620b1a7-b7df-4d98-bbed-21d4e5301c72
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« Reply #9736 on: May 03, 2012, 12:15:01 pm »
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Osama Bin Laden anniversary bounce for Obama. He's at or above 50 in both trackers today:

Gallup: 51-43 (+2,-3)

Rasmussen: 50-49 (+1, -1)
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« Reply #9737 on: May 03, 2012, 03:03:09 pm »
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More than just a Bin Laden bounce if you ask me. His coalition is gelling once again, united against Romney. He just doesn't have much to offer lean Obama voters as of late.
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« Reply #9738 on: May 06, 2012, 04:33:06 pm »
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I don't know why smart people pay so much attention to polls. 

At this point in 1980, Carter lead Reagan by about 18 points.

Obama's only chance to be in the White House in February of next year is as a visitor.
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« Reply #9739 on: May 06, 2012, 04:58:30 pm »
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I don't know why smart people pay so much attention to polls. 

At this point in 1980, Carter lead Reagan by about 18 points.

Obama's only chance to be in the White House in February of next year is as a visitor.

That's a comparison that's misleading in the extreme due to the Iran crisis, of course. But you knew that.
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« Reply #9740 on: May 06, 2012, 05:28:52 pm »
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I'm one of Rasmussen's sample tonight. I'll be curious to see if it's a "good" or "bad" sample. Wink
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« Reply #9741 on: May 06, 2012, 07:31:24 pm »
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I'm one of Rasmussen's sample tonight. I'll be curious to see if it's a "good" or "bad" sample. Wink


How does one become part these "samples"?   Be it Gallup or Rassmussen.
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« Reply #9742 on: May 06, 2012, 09:53:31 pm »
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I'm one of Rasmussen's sample tonight. I'll be curious to see if it's a "good" or "bad" sample. Wink


How does one become part these "samples"?   Be it Gallup or Rassmussen.

They called me, so my number must have been in their random sample today.
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« Reply #9743 on: May 08, 2012, 09:39:30 am »
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I don't know why smart people pay so much attention to polls.

They show things happening before they manifest themselves in  an election. If the incumbent President had approval ratings in the 30s, then that would be evidence that he isn't up to the job and that the usual challenger would defeat him handily. Maybe he would spare himself the embarrassment of being trounced in an election.

Think of how unpopular such senators as Rick Santorum was in 2006 and Blanche Lincoln was in 2010.

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At this point in 1980, Carter lead Reagan by about 18 points.

1. That says much more about Ronald Reagan than about Ronald Reagan than about Jimmy Carter. Ronald Reagan was known as "the Great Communicator" for convincing people that he was right for the time.

2. Nobody could have predicted the Iranian hostage situation that slowly dragged down support for the President.

3. Jimmy Carter had won the Presidency in 1976 by putting together a Democratic coalition that included a large number of southern white people who are best described as the sorts who voted for George Wallace in 1968. Carter won a bunch of states that have never since voted for any Democratic nominee for President -- Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina. Carter won as a 'good 'ol boy" against a weak d@mnyankee incumbent who still won the "Rockefeller Republicans" . Reagan won those over while keeping the Rockefeller Republicans.

4. Generational change then favored Republicans about as it now favors Democrats. In 1980 the youngest voters were no longer Baby Boomers; they were Generation X which has shown itself one of the most conservative generations ever. They were much more conservative on economic issues and law-and-order than the generations that had the bulk of WWII, Korea, and Vietnam-era veterans. The generation then more conservative than Generation X was the Lost Generation born in the 19th Century.  Elections are won on margins.

5. Presidential politics have practically inverted the reality of 1976. Jimmy Carter is the last Democratic President to have won despite losing California, Oregon, Washington, New Mexico, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, New Hampshire, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut, and New Jersey. If anything President Obama has done much to put together most parts of the Eisenhower coalition. Tellingly, Barack Obama won only one state (North Carolina) that Dwight Eisenhower ever lost.

6. The Romney-Reagan analogy is ludicrous. Mitt Romney is a trimming opportunist who has changed his views not so much to fit changing reality (which one would excuse) instead of someone who like Reagan convinced people that his austere conservatism would solve big problems. Mitt Romney has changed his tune as he finds a different audience, which is far less effective.

7. President Barack Obama is probably best described as a left-wing version of Ronald Reagan. If you thought that Ronald Reagan was the Great Communicator, then wait until you meet Barack Obama.

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Obama's only chance to be in the White House in February of next year is as a visitor.

Only in the event of

(1) a breaking scandal -- which would already manifest itself in polls because there would be indications in secretiveness and inexplicable eccentricities of policy-making

(2) a sudden economic meltdown for which there is no apparent cause -- as there is no speculative boom about to go bust that can devalue the assets of home owners or people recently snookered into buying securities

(3) a military or diplomatic debacle -- except that the President is very cautious, and he cooperates well with the armed forces and the intelligence agencies

(4) bungled treatment of a natural disaster -- just think of Hurricane Katrina. Except that President Obama has well treated tornado outbreaks for which there is no advanced warning.  

(5) extremely erratic behavior better explained in DMS-IV than in normal discussion of politics.

Wise people do not bet on long-shots unless they see a huge bargain -- let's say a race horse that is given 100-1 chances that are really 20-1.  I see the President having roughly 50-50 chances now in six of states (Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia) different enough that there is no appeal that wins them all without cutting into overall support for the President. Basically a model based on exact 50-50 chances in those states alone gives the President 63 chances in 64 of winning re-election. Something must change drastically for Mitt Romney to have a better chance.

  
« Last Edit: May 08, 2012, 01:25:45 pm by pbrower2a »Logged



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« Reply #9744 on: May 10, 2012, 07:48:52 pm »
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Gallup

48: Approve

46: Disapprove

Obama is 2 points ahead of Bush at this time, and 5-6 points behind Reagan.
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« Reply #9745 on: May 10, 2012, 07:54:04 pm »
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Rassmussen

46: Approve

53: Disapprove

26% Strongly Approve, 42% Strongly Disapprove.
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King
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« Reply #9746 on: May 11, 2012, 02:40:44 pm »
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Gallup
Approve 49% (+1)
Disapprove 45% (-1)
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« Reply #9747 on: May 11, 2012, 02:47:30 pm »
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Truly the gay marriage announcement has doomed Obama's hopes of re-election. Witness his seven po--- uh, one point statistically insignificant gain on Romney in Gallup's tracker.

It's almost as if the announcement will have a negligible effect!
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« Reply #9748 on: May 12, 2012, 03:10:00 pm »
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Truly the gay marriage announcement has doomed Obama's hopes of re-election. Witness his seven po--- uh, one point statistically insignificant gain on Romney in Gallup's tracker.

It's almost as if the announcement will have a negligible effect!

The homophobes were never going to vote for President Obama anyway. But that said, President Obama consolidated some support that he might never have otherwise gotten.

In a narrow election something inconvenient  but necessary can work. LGBT rights has become a positive issue in a bunch of states best described as moderate-to-liberal... Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, maybe Indiana and Florida...

GROW UP, AMERICA!

God really did make Adam and Steve and still loves them in knowledge of what they do with each other if He made them gay. 
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« Reply #9749 on: May 14, 2012, 09:08:42 pm »
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Truly the gay marriage announcement has doomed Obama's hopes of re-election. Witness his seven po--- uh, one point statistically insignificant gain on Romney in Gallup's tracker.

It's almost as if the announcement will have a negligible effect!

The homophobes were never going to vote for President Obama anyway. But that said, President Obama consolidated some support that he might never have otherwise gotten.

In a narrow election something inconvenient  but necessary can work. LGBT rights has become a positive issue in a bunch of states best described as moderate-to-liberal... Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, maybe Indiana and Florida...

GROW UP, AMERICA!

God really did make Adam and Steve and still loves them in knowledge of what they do with each other if He made them gay. 

This might not directly effect politics, but the HIV/AIDS issue used to be a big concern in the gay community, but it seems in the past decade or so, with modern medicine and examples such as Magic Johnson surviving and living long lives, the threat of HIV is no longer an issue, at least it is no longer discussed as a medical threat in mainstream news.  In addition sodomy laws are no longer criminalized.  Anyone can justify two men or two women living together and getting financial benefits.  But the act of two men having anal intercourse can be painful, not as natural as vaginal insemination, and medically dangerous to those people exposed to STD's and HIV.  I doubt the USA will have an HIV outbreak like Africa, but I think Americans fear infection and death.  Any media coverage of HIV outbreaks in the USA would decrease support for gay marriage. 
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