The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[BigSkyBob]

Rasmussen:



4/26:
Total Approval       48%
Total Disapproval   51%


Strong Approve     27%
Strong Disapprove 40%

[philly09]

For the third day in a row, Obama's at 50% at Gallup

Approve: 50% uc.

Disapprove: 44% uc.

[Tender Branson]

Kansas (SurveyUSA):

43% Approve
49% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c620b1a7-b7df-4d98-bbed-21d4e5301c72

[Tender Branson]

Osama Bin Laden anniversary bounce for Obama. He's at or above 50 in both trackers today:

Gallup: 51-43 (+2,-3)

Rasmussen: 50-49 (+1, -1)

[cope1989]

More than just a Bin Laden bounce if you ask me. His coalition is gelling once again, united against Romney. He just doesn't have much to offer lean Obama voters as of late.

[WhyteRain]

I don't know why smart people pay so much attention to polls. 

At this point in 1980, Carter lead Reagan by about 18 points.

Obama's only chance to be in the White House in February of next year is as a visitor.

[oakvale]

I don't know why smart people pay so much attention to polls. 

At this point in 1980, Carter lead Reagan by about 18 points.

Obama's only chance to be in the White House in February of next year is as a visitor.

That's a comparison that's misleading in the extreme due to the Iran crisis, of course. But you knew that.

[muon2]

I'm one of Rasmussen's sample tonight. I'll be curious to see if it's a "good" or "bad" sample.

[philly09]

I'm one of Rasmussen's sample tonight. I'll be curious to see if it's a "good" or "bad" sample.

How does one become part these "samples"?   Be it Gallup or Rassmussen.

[muon2]

I'm one of Rasmussen's sample tonight. I'll be curious to see if it's a "good" or "bad" sample.

How does one become part these "samples"?   Be it Gallup or Rassmussen.

They called me, so my number must have been in their random sample today.

[pbrower2a]

I don't know why smart people pay so much attention to polls.

They show things happening before they manifest themselves in  an election. If the incumbent President had approval ratings in the 30s, then that would be evidence that he isn't up to the job and that the usual challenger would defeat him handily. Maybe he would spare himself the embarrassment of being trounced in an election.

Think of how unpopular such senators as Rick Santorum was in 2006 and Blanche Lincoln was in 2010.

At this point in 1980, Carter lead Reagan by about 18 points.

1. That says much more about Ronald Reagan than about Ronald Reagan than about Jimmy Carter. Ronald Reagan was known as "the Great Communicator" for convincing people that he was right for the time.

2. Nobody could have predicted the Iranian hostage situation that slowly dragged down support for the President.

3. Jimmy Carter had won the Presidency in 1976 by putting together a Democratic coalition that included a large number of southern white people who are best described as the sorts who voted for George Wallace in 1968. Carter won a bunch of states that have never since voted for any Democratic nominee for President -- Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina. Carter won as a 'good 'ol boy" against a weak d@mnyankee incumbent who still won the "Rockefeller Republicans" . Reagan won those over while keeping the Rockefeller Republicans.

4. Generational change then favored Republicans about as it now favors Democrats. In 1980 the youngest voters were no longer Baby Boomers; they were Generation X which has shown itself one of the most conservative generations ever. They were much more conservative on economic issues and law-and-order than the generations that had the bulk of WWII, Korea, and Vietnam-era veterans. The generation then more conservative than Generation X was the Lost Generation born in the 19th Century.  Elections are won on margins.

5. Presidential politics have practically inverted the reality of 1976. Jimmy Carter is the last Democratic President to have won despite losing California, Oregon, Washington, New Mexico, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, New Hampshire, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut, and New Jersey. If anything President Obama has done much to put together most parts of the Eisenhower coalition. Tellingly, Barack Obama won only one state (North Carolina) that Dwight Eisenhower ever lost.

6. The Romney-Reagan analogy is ludicrous. Mitt Romney is a trimming opportunist who has changed his views not so much to fit changing reality (which one would excuse) instead of someone who like Reagan convinced people that his austere conservatism would solve big problems. Mitt Romney has changed his tune as he finds a different audience, which is far less effective.

7. President Barack Obama is probably best described as a left-wing version of Ronald Reagan. If you thought that Ronald Reagan was the Great Communicator, then wait until you meet Barack Obama.

Obama's only chance to be in the White House in February of next year is as a visitor.

Only in the event of

(1) a breaking scandal -- which would already manifest itself in polls because there would be indications in secretiveness and inexplicable eccentricities of policy-making

(2) a sudden economic meltdown for which there is no apparent cause -- as there is no speculative boom about to go bust that can devalue the assets of home owners or people recently snookered into buying securities

(3) a military or diplomatic debacle -- except that the President is very cautious, and he cooperates well with the armed forces and the intelligence agencies

(4) bungled treatment of a natural disaster -- just think of Hurricane Katrina. Except that President Obama has well treated tornado outbreaks for which there is no advanced warning.  

(5) extremely erratic behavior better explained in DMS-IV than in normal discussion of politics.

Wise people do not bet on long-shots unless they see a huge bargain -- let's say a race horse that is given 100-1 chances that are really 20-1.  I see the President having roughly 50-50 chances now in six of states (Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia) different enough that there is no appeal that wins them all without cutting into overall support for the President. Basically a model based on exact 50-50 chances in those states alone gives the President 63 chances in 64 of winning re-election. Something must change drastically for Mitt Romney to have a better chance.

  

[philly09]

Gallup

48: Approve

46: Disapprove

Obama is 2 points ahead of Bush at this time, and 5-6 points behind Reagan.

[philly09]

Rassmussen

46: Approve

53: Disapprove

26% Strongly Approve, 42% Strongly Disapprove.

[King]

Gallup
Approve 49% (+1)
Disapprove 45% (-1)

[oakvale]

Truly the gay marriage announcement has doomed Obama's hopes of re-election. Witness his seven po--- uh, one point statistically insignificant gain on Romney in Gallup's tracker.

It's almost as if the announcement will have a negligible effect!

[pbrower2a]

Truly the gay marriage announcement has doomed Obama's hopes of re-election. Witness his seven po--- uh, one point statistically insignificant gain on Romney in Gallup's tracker.

It's almost as if the announcement will have a negligible effect!

The homophobes were never going to vote for President Obama anyway. But that said, President Obama consolidated some support that he might never have otherwise gotten.

In a narrow election something inconvenient  but necessary can work. LGBT rights has become a positive issue in a bunch of states best described as moderate-to-liberal... Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, maybe Indiana and Florida...

GROW UP, AMERICA!

God really did make Adam and Steve and still loves them in knowledge of what they do with each other if He made them gay. 

[milhouse24]

Truly the gay marriage announcement has doomed Obama's hopes of re-election. Witness his seven po--- uh, one point statistically insignificant gain on Romney in Gallup's tracker.

It's almost as if the announcement will have a negligible effect!

The homophobes were never going to vote for President Obama anyway. But that said, President Obama consolidated some support that he might never have otherwise gotten.

In a narrow election something inconvenient  but necessary can work. LGBT rights has become a positive issue in a bunch of states best described as moderate-to-liberal... Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, maybe Indiana and Florida...

GROW UP, AMERICA!

God really did make Adam and Steve and still loves them in knowledge of what they do with each other if He made them gay. 

This might not directly effect politics, but the HIV/AIDS issue used to be a big concern in the gay community, but it seems in the past decade or so, with modern medicine and examples such as Magic Johnson surviving and living long lives, the threat of HIV is no longer an issue, at least it is no longer discussed as a medical threat in mainstream news.  In addition sodomy laws are no longer criminalized.  Anyone can justify two men or two women living together and getting financial benefits.  But the act of two men having anal intercourse can be painful, not as natural as vaginal insemination, and medically dangerous to those people exposed to STD's and HIV.  I doubt the USA will have an HIV outbreak like Africa, but I think Americans fear infection and death.  Any media coverage of HIV outbreaks in the USA would decrease support for gay marriage. 

[Secretary Polnut]

That response is like a mysterious car crash ...

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%,+1.

Disapprove 52%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  41%, u.

I've had a busy fortnight. 

[Iosif]

Mensa convention?

[kingthlayer]

So assuming that these polls are beginning to have more of a predictive value, where would we say we are at this point?

Obama is certainly off his summer 2011 lows, and the economy looks like it is going to create jobs at a better pace than it did last year as well. With jobless claims at 370,000, we are roughly at a point where job creation can be strong enough to drop the unemployment rate.

At the same time, Europe looks really unstable, and so economic collapse can never be completely ruled out.

I would say, given presidential approval in the high 40s, we're in for either a 2004 or a 2000, in which one party wins by a nose.

[Tender Branson]

Gallup:

47-47

45-45 Obama/Romney

Rasmussen:

47-52

45-46 Obama/Romney

[Tender Branson]

Obama takes the lead again (Rasmussen):

46-45 Obama

49-50 Disapprove

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen:

51% Approve, 48% Disapprove

46-45 Obama-Romney

[InsaneTrollLogic]

Rasmussen:

51% Approve, 48% Disapprove

46-45 Obama-Romney

Those numbers don't quite make since. This does feel a lot like 2004, actually...