Iceland 2009

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The Prime Minister of the country hit hardest by the economic crisis has been forced to resign, and elections will take place in May. The government is currently a coalition of the right-wing Independence Party and the left-wing Social Democratic Alliance, with the PM coming from the former.

Results of the 2007 election:

Independence Party: 25 seats, 36.6% of the vote (center-right/Christian democratic)
Social Democratic Alliance: 18 seats, 26.8% (center-left)
Left-Green Movement: 9 seats, 14.3% (green/socialist)
Progressive Party: 7 seats, 11.7% (centrist/liberal)
Liberal Party: 4 seats, 7.3% (right/xenophobic)
Iceland Movement - Living Land: no seats, 3.3% (green)

No polls that I can find.

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My apologies

That November poll would be quite the revolutionary result for Iceland. Not least since the Independence Party has been the largest party since at least 1946.

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May 9 for the election date, by the way.

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More recent poll shows massive upheaval in the electoral landscape and a shift towards the radical left:

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LM763367.htm

Left-Green Movement: "28%"
Independence Party: 24.3%
Progressive Party: 17.2%
Social Democratic Alliance: 16.7%

The radical right-wing Liberal Party is not mentioned.

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More recent poll shows massive upheaval in the electoral landscape and a shift towards the radical left:

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LM763367.htm

Left-Green Movement: "28%"
Independence Party: 24.3%
Progressive Party: 17.2%
Social Democratic Alliance: 16.7%

The radical right-wing Liberal Party is not mentioned.

Of all places, DailyKos had the full poll results (presumably because it shows the left surging).

Vinstrihreyfingin (Left-Green): 28.5%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn (Independence): 24.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn (Progressive): 17.2%
Samfylkingin (Social Democrats): 16.7%

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Liberals: 3.3% (Xenophobes below the threshold! )
Icelandic Movement: 2.2%
Other/Unsure: 7.9%

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Also...

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/majority_in_iceland_wants_currency_change/

Iceland may petition to join the Eurozone after the upcoming election. Independence has been softening its anti-EU stance for the past few years, but the Left-Greens are very strongly pro-EU, and the other parties are not opposed. If the Left-Greens really do surge into largest party status, well, things will change.

(It's also worth noting that, despite the EU's objections, Montenegro and Kosovo use the Euro unilaterally, and Iceland could probably get away with it if they wanted to.)

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I think he meant as in "opinion about joining the Euro" rather than...

I think economic collapse is more likely than joining the Euro.

However Pound v Euro is one of the most disengaging topics for me. I'll back either at a push.

In the short term. But, if the pound drops below the Euro in value and then remains below the Euro for a prolonged period, you may see a drastic reversal of opinion.

Anyway, I think Iceland applying for EU membership maybe even within the year is now highly likely. Fishing rights are the least of their concerns right now. Amusingly, Iceland's current economic turmoil might mean it falls below EU standards on some economic barometers.

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Update on the current political climate. The SDA has convinced the President to let them run the interim government until the elections in May in coalition with the Left-Green Movement and the Progressive Party. Johanna Sigurdardottir of the SDA will very likely be the interim Prime Minister.

She will also be, as far as I can tell, the first openly gay head of government in the world. Correct me if I'm wrong.

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Johanna has now taken office as Prime Minister, as of today. (I think today.) It will be interesting to see how this affects the upcoming election, as she is very popular (73% approval rating). The coalition is SDA/Left-Green, with the Progressives supporting it from the outside. Elections will still take place in May.

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Oops, elections are apparently scheduled for 25 April, not May. My mistake.

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New poll:

Social Democrats: 27.7%
Independence: 25.8%
Left-Green: 24.1%
Progressives: ~15%
Liberals: 2.5%, well below the threshold

http://icelandreview.com/icelandreview/daily_news/?cat_id=16567&ew_0_a_id=320043

Easy majority for SDA/Left-Green; they wouldn't even need the Progressives.

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The election is less than a week away now, and the most recent poll is amusing.

Social Democrats: 32.6%
Left-Greens: 26.0%
Independence: 25.7%
Progressives: 9.8%
"Citizens' Movement" (?): 3.6%
Liberals: 1.1%
Others: 1.0%
http://ruv.is/heim/frettir/frett/store64/item259722/ (warning: in Icelandic)

Independence Party in third. Again. They've been the largest party since 1947. Looks like the government will get a solid majority. The threshold is 4%, so this random "Citizens' Movement" thing might actually win seats. I have no idea what it is.

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Citizen's Movement appears to be led by a film director named Herbert Sveinbjörnsson. I can't find much about its ideology, but my guess is that it's in the radical-democratic vein.

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Clearly an SDA victory. It's not clear whether Independence or the Left-Greens will be in second. The Citizen's Movement definitely made it into the legislature. The Progressives didn't do too badly, either.

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Looks like the SDA won every constituency except Northeast, which the Left-Greens won.

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Oh, and I found something about the Citizens' Movement:
http://wdpost.com/2009/02/23/borgarahreyfingin-a-new-radical-political-party/
Apparently they want to change the electoral system from pure PR to something else?

Any idea on their views on the EU? The SDA and Progressives are in favor of membership while Independence and the Left-Greens are opposed, so the Citizen's Movement holds the balance on the issue.