NY-20 Special Election

[Zarn]

We're a republic.

[I left.]

We're a republic.

There is no contradiction.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

We're a republic.

He's technically right.  It's a direct vote, albeit one on republican representatives, but it's still "democratic" in the stringent sense.

With Rowan on this one.  If there were a pattern emerging that would be sufficient to overturn this margin, we would have seen it by now.  Nothing's impossible, but within a rational explanation for why a last-minute veer will happen, it's safe to assume it won't.

[Vasall des Midas]

We've seen a last-minute veer in this race before, those final precincts coming in far more strongly for Murphy than we had expected.

But yeah, it'd be highly remarkable if Tedisco won after all. (Unless we've somehow not been hearing the stories of Murphy's even more ridiculous, even more numerous challenges. )

[ucscgaldamez]

New numbers:

with Saratoga and Washington counties reporting


Murphy: 79,105
Tedisco: 79, 019

Murphy +86


Saratoga 1,181 absentee votes counted (inc. military + overseas)

[TheresNoMoney]

Yikes, Tedisco will drag this race out for many months (just like Coleman).

[Verily]

Yikes, Tedisco will drag this race out for many months (just like Coleman).

No. The national party has no incentive to throw money at this race after the counting and recounting is done.

[ucscgaldamez]

Prediction: Murphy wins +250

[ucscgaldamez]

It's over for Tedisco:

Another blow to the Tedisco campaign: A Dutchess county judge ruled this afternoon that most of the 1,200 challenged absentee ballots were cast legally, and will need to be included in the count.   Since Tedisco's campaign has objected to a majority of these ballots, Murphy is expected to further increase his lead as they are counted.


Saratoga County has completed its count of the absentees, but there are still about 700 challenged ballots in the county that may end up being included in the count.  Many of those challenges have been lodged by the Tedisco campaign and are unlikely to significantly close his deficit.

And there are still additional absentee ballots left to be tallied in Columbia, Dutchess and Warren Counties – all counties that Murphy carried on Election Night.

Tedisco’s campaign was hoping to take over the lead once the absentee ballots from Saratoga County were included in the count. 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/

[Nhoj]

im now willing to say tedisco has pretty much no chance.

[Zarn]

We're a republic.

There is no contradiction.

That's not what democracy means.

[So the Heroes Fall]

A representative republic would have Minnesota getting equal representation to all the other states, and NY-20 to all other districts. Coleman is thwarting the former, and Tedisco may try to thwart the latter.

[Verily]

We're a republic.

There is no contradiction.

That's not what democracy means.

It certainly is. This was a public vote, which is democracy. Now, the governmental system is republican, not democratic. But the elections are democratic as the people are the ones doing the voting. A republican electoral system wouldn't make any sense; what would that even mean? The Electoral College might be a kind of republican electoral system, I suppose, as could be the election of a Prime Minister in parliamentary systems of government, but certainly standard elections are not.

[Zarn]

We're a republic.

There is no contradiction.

That's not what democracy means.

It certainly is. This was a public vote, which is democracy. Now, the governmental system is republican, not democratic. But the elections are democratic as the people are the ones doing the voting. A republican electoral system wouldn't make any sense; what would that even mean? The Electoral College might be a kind of republican electoral system, I suppose, as could be the election of a Prime Minister in parliamentary systems of government, but certainly standard elections are not.

Democracy has nothing to do with electing anyone. Democracy is more direct in its approach, and would not be bound by any set of laws. Republics and constitutional monarchies are bound by law.

BTW, I never said Coleman should not concede. I actually think he should.

[Lunar]

Gillibrand's ballot is valid too.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/04/new-york-case-law-says-gillibrands-ballot-is-valid-even-if-gop-claim-is-true.php

What matters is that she intended not to be in the district during election day when she requested the absentee, not whether she actually was.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Gillibrand's ballot is valid too.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/04/new-york-case-law-says-gillibrands-ballot-is-valid-even-if-gop-claim-is-true.php

What matters is that she intended not to be in the district during election day when she requested the absentee, not whether she actually was.

Oh no, not voter intent again!

[Lunar]

Gillibrand's ballot is valid too.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/04/new-york-case-law-says-gillibrands-ballot-is-valid-even-if-gop-claim-is-true.php

What matters is that she intended not to be in the district during election day when she requested the absentee, not whether she actually was.

Oh no, not voter intent again!

Well, it's not exactly voter intent   The merits of the quality of her excuse to request an absentee ballot are weighed by whatever official/bureaucracy is in charge of that sort of thing at the time of the request, not when counting the votes.  Once the ballot is mailed, the excuse for requesting the absentee is already valid, says the rules.

[cinyc]

A representative republic would have Minnesota getting equal representation to all the other states, and NY-20 to all other districts. Coleman is thwarting the former, and Tedisco may try to thwart the latter.

New York is not Minnesota.  There's not much to fight over, and dragging this out won't work.  The most Tedisco can do is appeal that judge's decisions two levels - and even those courts will expedite things.  It's all over but the official results.

[Lunar]

also no one cares if Pelosi gets one more vote

[Grad Students are the Worst]

We've seen a last-minute veer in this race before, those final precincts coming in far more strongly for Murphy than we had expected.

That's different though.  You can have a few polling places outstanding, with multiple precincts each.  And ballots aren't "clustered" like that in this scenario.  And...

[Vasall des Midas]

We've seen a last-minute veer in this race before, those final precincts coming in far more strongly for Murphy than we had expected.

That's different though.  You can have a few polling places outstanding, with multiple precincts each.  And ballots aren't "clustered" like that in this scenario.  And...

Oh yes. But you know I know that. I was just caveatting around.

[Nhoj]

murphy is now up 167.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Tedisco now has about as much chance as Coleman.

[The Mikado]

also no one cares if Pelosi gets one more vote

One more vote?  Remember that this is a Democratically-held seat.  By winning, the Dems just break even.

[Smash255]

also no one cares if Pelosi gets one more vote

One more vote?  Remember that this is a Democratically-held seat.  By winning, the Dems just break even.

One more vote than they have now, since the seat has been vacant for the past few months.