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Author Topic: 2009/10 General Election probabilities  (Read 2897 times)
afleitch
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« on: August 11, 2006, 11:52:51 am »
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What, in your mind, is the % chance of the follwing occurring at the next general election?

PART I

1.Labour Majority

2.Labour Minority

3.Conservative Minority

4.Conservative Majority

5.Liberal Democrats largest party

6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader

7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader

8.BNP pick up one seat

9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats

10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats

11. Greens pick up a seat

12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election

 
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« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2006, 12:01:48 pm »

Isn't it a little early for this?

1.Labour Majority: uncertain

2.Labour Minority: uncertain

3.Conservative Minority: uncertain

4.Conservative Majority: unlikely, but not impossible...

5.Liberal Democrats largest party: impossible

6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader: very likely

7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader: more likely now than was for a while.

8.BNP pick up one seat: not very likely, but just about possible (and it would be Barking). O/c that assumes the electoral system doesn't change.

9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats: very unlikely

10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats: very, very, very unlikely

11. Greens pick up a seat: possible, but see 8.

12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election: very unlikely. It might have more powers devolved to it though.
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« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2006, 12:25:59 pm »
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What, in your mind, is the % chance of the follwing occurring at the next general election?

PART I

1.Labour Majority
This far out, who can say. I suspect that Labour will still be in office, but what do I know? About 45%

2.Labour Minority
20%

3.Conservative Minority
20%

4.Conservative Majority
Doable, but not likely. 15%

5.Liberal Democrats largest party
Hugely unlikely. Would require quite the confluence of events. Less than 1%.

6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader
More likely than anyone else at the moment but far from a lock. Often times the favourite just doesn't win. 65%

7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader
See above. 35%

8.BNP pick up one seat
Seems fairly unlikely. Would require some fairly abnormal intervening events. In and around 1%.

9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats
I don't see them getting one in normal circumstances, so getting a handful may be about as likely as any one in particular. Less than 1%

10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats
Chances of a very serious impact outisde of very specific geographic areas, very unlikely. Much less than 1%

11. Greens pick up a seat
All the major parties seem to be going 'green'. In the absence of a chance in the voting system, or maybe a very significant environmental disaster (a major incident at Sellafield or somesuch) this is not something I expect to see. About 1%.

12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election
I can't think of any scenario whereby this would happen in this timeframe. Very close to 0%.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2006, 02:00:47 pm »
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What, in your mind, is the % chance of the follwing occurring at the next general election?

PART I

1.Labour Majority: Low (less than 25%)

2.Labour Minority: Moderate (50%)

3.Conservative Minority: Low (less than 25%)

4.Conservative Majority: Minute (less than 5%)

5.Liberal Democrats largest party: Infinestial (less than 0.001%)

6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader: High (85%)

7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader: Low (15%)

8.BNP pick up one seat: Moderate (50%)

9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats: Low (25%)

10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats: Very Low (5%)

11. Greens pick up a seat: Moderate (50%)

12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election: Moderate (50%)

 
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2006, 08:12:15 am »
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1.Labour Majority
Highish (less than 50%)
2.Labour Minority
Less than option 1.
3.Conservative Minority
Less than option 1.
4.Conservative Majority
Less than option 1. All of them distinctly possible o/c.
5.Liberal Democrats largest party
Exceedingly unlikely
6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader
Exceedingly likely
7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader
see above, silly
8.BNP pick up one seat
Unlikely, possible
9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats
Very unlikely, just about possible
10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats
Exceedingly unlikely
11. Greens pick up a seat
Very unlikely, just about possible
12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election
Exceedingly unlikely
 
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2006, 11:58:51 am »
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11. Greens pick up a seat
Very unlikely, just about possible

As the first person from outside the UK to post, I was wondering if you were aware of the following result from Brighton, Pavillion?

Lab 36%, Con 24%, Lib Dem 16%, Green 21% Ind 0%, UKIP 1%, Others 1%
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« Reply #6 on: August 13, 2006, 05:59:36 am »
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11. Greens pick up a seat
Very unlikely, just about possible

As the first person from outside the UK to post, I was wondering if you were aware of the following result from Brighton, Pavillion?

Lab 36%, Con 24%, Lib Dem 16%, Green 21% Ind 0%, UKIP 1%, Others 1%
Yes. I was rooting for Greens to take second place - I knew the talk about them possibly taking the seat right away in 2005 was rubbish.
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« Reply #7 on: August 13, 2006, 06:31:43 am »
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What, in your mind, is the % chance of the follwing occurring at the next general election?

PART I

1.Labour Majority 60%

2.Labour Minority50%

3.Conservative Minority40%

4.Conservative Majority20%

5.Liberal Democrats largest party0%

6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader80%

7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader20%

8.BNP pick up one seat0%

9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats0%

10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats0%

11. Greens pick up a seat0%

12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election0%

 
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« Reply #8 on: August 13, 2006, 06:45:36 am »
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1.Labour Majority 60%

2.Labour Minority50%

3.Conservative Minority40%

4.Conservative Majority20%

5.Liberal Democrats largest party0%
Shouldn't these five sum to 100% (or less, if you believe there's an outside chance some other party wins Smiley ), like these do:
Quote
6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader80%

7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader20%
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« Reply #9 on: August 13, 2006, 06:53:56 am »
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1.Labour Majority 40%

2.Labour Minority30%

3.Conservative Minority20%

4.Conservative Majority10%

5.Liberal Democrats largest party0%
Shouldn't these five sum to 100% (or less, if you believe there's an outside chance some other party wins Smiley ), like these do:
Quote
6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader80%

7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader20%

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« Reply #10 on: August 14, 2006, 05:22:06 am »
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11. Greens pick up a seat
Very unlikely, just about possible

As the first person from outside the UK to post...

Argh! I must have missed the British invasion. The media blackout has been most impressive.
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« Reply #11 on: August 14, 2006, 07:47:53 am »
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11. Greens pick up a seat
Very unlikely, just about possible

As the first person from outside the UK to post...

Argh! I must have missed the British invasion. The media blackout has been most impressive.
You're from Monaghan. That is in northern Ireland. Tongue
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« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2006, 11:50:12 am »
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11. Greens pick up a seat
Very unlikely, just about possible

As the first person from outside the UK to post...

Argh! I must have missed the British invasion. The media blackout has been most impressive.
You're from Monaghan. That is in northern Ireland. Tongue

Tongue
(It's constantly amazes me how many people over here believe that.)
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« Reply #13 on: January 24, 2009, 03:17:45 pm »
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A Labour majority is less likely now than it was in 2006. Otherwise, I stand by my earlier estimates.
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« Reply #14 on: January 24, 2009, 03:34:21 pm »
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con majority seems increasingly likely and everytime people talk about a hung parliament it appears the chances of it recedes.one thing i wouldn't yet bet on is a Con 100+ majority as it needs more net gains than labour in 1997!
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« Reply #15 on: January 24, 2009, 08:21:45 pm »
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1.Labour Majority: 5%
2.Labour Minority: 25%
3.Conservative Minority: 20%
4.Conservative Majority: 50%
5.Liberal Democrats largest party: <1%
6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader: 90%
7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader: 10%
8.BNP pick up one seat: 5%
9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats: <1%
10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats: 0%
11. Greens pick up a seat: 30%
12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election: 5%
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #16 on: January 25, 2009, 08:40:42 am »
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What, in your mind, is the % chance of the follwing occurring at the next general election?

Low = 0 - 25% chance, Moderate = 26 - 50%, High = 51% - 75% chance, Likely: 76 - 100%
PART I

1.Labour Majority Low
2.Labour Minority Moderate
3.Conservative Minority High
4.Conservative Majority Likely
5.Liberal Democrats largest party Low
6.Gordon Brown is the Labour leader Moderate
7.Gordon Brown is NOT the Labour leader Moderate
8.BNP pick up one seat Moderate
9.BNP pick up 2-5 seats Low
10.BNP pick up more than 5 seats Low
11. Greens pick up a seat High
12. Scotland is no longer part of the UK by the time of the election Low
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