Constitutional Referendum, Bolivia

[Daniel Adams]

Bolivia votes today on a new Constitution backed by President Evo Morales. It vastly increases the power of the State over the economy and establishes several new "human rights", including several rights specific to the indigenous population which constitutes Morales' electoral base. Additionally, it allows Morales to seek re-election (he is term-limited under the current Constitution). It is expected that the new Constitution will be approved, but there will likely be a clear divide between the pro-Morales Andean departments and the anti-Morales Eastern and Amazonian departments. Some governors of the anti-Morales departments have indicated they will refuse to accept the legitimacy of the new Constitution if it is defeated in their departments.

EDIT: Fixed Eastern/Western confusion.

[Hashemite]

What makes those western departments so anti-Morales? Demographic difference between indigenous in the Andean departments and mestizo in the east?

[Vasall des Midas]

That; and "omg I don't control EVERYTHING anymore! I'm being oppressed!"

Eastern, o/c, not western. Just pointing it out before anybody else does.

[Daniel Adams]

What makes those western departments so anti-Morales? Demographic difference between indigenous in the Andean departments and mestizo in the west?

Demographic and economic reasons. In the Andean departments over two-third of the population considers itself indigenous, while in the Eastern "half moon" region the vast majority of the population considers itself mestizo or white. The mountainous West is heavily reliant on mining, while the East is flatter and hence friendlier to agriculture. Recently, the Eastern departments have began to develop their natural gas fields, which have become increasingly important to the Bolivian economy. The Eastern departments are Bolivia's wealthiest and account for 42% of Bolivia's GDP. As a result, the East has generally been supportive of the right-wing parties, while the Andean West is a bastion of leftism.

[Daniel Adams]

The polls have closed and vote counting has begun. International observers have stated there were no significant irregularities and the voting process transpired normally. The media is authorized to divulge exit poll data starting at 18:00 local time (three minutes ago) and the first official results are expected by 20:00 local.

[Vasall des Midas]

http://www.dailyadvance.com/news/world/exit-polls-bolivians-approve-new-constitution-393817.html

[Daniel Adams]

Another exit poll by the Apoyo firm says 51.5% votes Yes and 48.5% voted No. The exit polls agree the No option won in all four departments of the "half moon" region and there is a tie in the department of Chuquisaca, which despite being located in the East is 60% indigenous.

[Daniel Adams]

Although there are still no official results, President Morales has claimed victory and declared and end to "colonialism" and "neoliberalism".

[Tender Branson]

Official Results from the Bolivian Election Site (11.89% in so far):

Yes   187,352   45.22%
No   226,971   54.78%

There were 3,891,316 registered voters, turnout was estimated at 89.82%.

http://www.cne.org.bo/ResultadosRNC2009/wfrmConstituyente.aspx

[Lief]

Let's hope the constitution is approved. Evo Morales is a huge FF.

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone know why there are so few registered voters in Bolivia ?

The country has 10.2 Mio. inhabitants, but only 3.9 Mio. are registered to vote.

I know that Bolivia has a very young population (about 4.5 Mio. are below 18 years), but even that would leave 5.7 Mio. people older than 18 ...

[Vasall des Midas]

8.9 million, actually (in 2007, so probably just over 9 now)... but that still leaves about a million unregistered persons of voting age.
I don't know what voter registration laws in Bolivia, or South America generally, are like. In the US, this figure wouldn't be all that surprising. In Europe, it would be unthinkable.

Anyways... counting process (I suppose they stopped updating - or counting - for the night) is so uneven it's not funny.



Potosí 60% aye, 23% of towns, 30% of votes in
Oruro 60% aye, 33% of towns, 35% of votes in
La Paz 73% aye, 5% of towns, 5% of votes in
Cochabamba 85% aye, 0% of towns, 0% of votes in (namely one tiny town)
Tarija 32% aye, 41% of towns, 48% of votes in
Chuquisaca 27% aye, 48% of towns, 52% of votes in
Beni 29% aye, 32% of towns, 34% of votes in
Pando 39% aye, 48% of towns, 66% of votes in
Santa Cruz 29% aye, 1% of towns, 0% of votes in

La Paz and Cochabamba hold slightly over half the registered voters together.

[Tender Branson]

8.9 million, actually (in 2007, so probably just over 9 now)... but that still leaves about a million unregistered persons of voting age.
I don't know what voter registration laws in Bolivia, or South America generally, are like. In the US, this figure wouldn't be all that surprising. In Europe, it would be unthinkable.

The 2001 Census showed 8.274.000 Bolivians, compared with 6.421.000 counted in the 1992 Census. That`s a growth rate of 2.9% each year. But growth is slowing down a bit and the Bolivian Statistics Institute meanwhile estimates the 2009 population at 10.227.000

http://www.ine.gov.bo/indice/visualizador.aspx?ah=PC20410.HTM

[Vasall des Midas]

Yeah, my bad. I didn't read closely enough. Oh, and "towns" up there should be "precincts".

Incidentally, it seems registration lags further behind population in the east. La Paz has 2.76 million inhabitants and 1.26 million registered voters; Sant Cruz, 2.63 million inhabitants and 870k registered voters.
Of course the eastern provinces do have lots of urban migrants from the mountains - are they being kept from registering to vote or what? (I'm just putting that one out there without evidence, obviously. It's just the first theory that came to mind.)

Count is at 18% by now, and aye is up to 49%.

[Vasall des Midas]

35% counted, 53% aye. The link I posted has changed its content and is now a fullblown article, complete with estimate based on current results of about 57% aye when all is said and done.

[Tender Branson]

Incidentally, it seems registration lags further behind population in the east. La Paz has 2.76 million inhabitants and 1.26 million registered voters; Sant Cruz, 2.63 million inhabitants and 870k registered voters.

Of course the eastern provinces do have lots of urban migrants from the mountains - are they being kept from registering to vote or what? (I'm just putting that one out there without evidence, obviously. It's just the first theory that came to mind.)

THAT is indeed interesting. I know that places like CA and TX have considerably lower registration rates than let's say NH or ME. Their populations are younger and to a high extent not citizens. Maybe there's a similar thing in Bolivia's Eastern provinces. It would be interesting to see if the amount of Non-Citizens and Youngsters is higher there compared with the Western regions.

*must check census data to find out*

[dialectical fetishist]

Let's hope the constitution is approved. Evo Morales is a huge FF.

I hope that was sarcasm.

[platypeanArchcow]

Let's hope the constitution is approved. Evo Morales is a huge FF.

I hope that was sarcasm.

Well, he is quite literally a freedom fighter for Bolivia's indigenous majority and for the coca growers.  He's stood up to US policies that have exacerbated economic inequality in South America.  He's also done things like cut his own salary.  Yes, he has a bit of a dictatorial streak.  But oh well.

[frenger]

I see the hydra of protectionism is alive and well.

[Lief]

Let's hope the constitution is approved. Evo Morales is a huge FF.

I hope that was sarcasm.

Not at all. Morales is one of my favorite politicians. He's done a lot of good for the poverty-stricken indigenous population of Bolivia, while at the same resisting the disastrous American anti-coca policies. He's also much less dictatorial and arrogant than Chavez.

[platypeanArchcow]

I see the hydra of protectionism is alive and well.

...because somehow all the rest of the world needs to pander to America's hypocrisy and gratefully accede to its unilateral meddling in their internal affairs?

(Edit: I'm sorry, you struck a nerve there, if I understood correctly that you were accusing me of protectionism.)

[Daniel Adams]

Let's hope the constitution is approved. Evo Morales is a huge FF.

I hope that was sarcasm.

Not at all. Morales is one of my favorite politicians. He's done a lot of good for the poverty-stricken indigenous population of Bolivia, while at the same resisting the disastrous American anti-coca policies. He's also much less dictatorial and arrogant than Chavez.

I'm not sure Morales is less dictatorial than Chávez. He keeps a somewhat lower profile and is less bombastic than the Venezuelan dictator, but that does not translate into being more democratic. There have been serious accusations that Morales is infringing on the freedom of speech of opposition media outlets. Also, several political opponents have been accused of manifestly trumped-up and vague charges, such as "genocide" or "economic harm to the State". This new Constitutions claims to guarantee the media's freedom of speech, but adds caveats that could be used by the State to persecution the opposition.

Like Chávez, Morales harbors paranoid fears about an American-led conspiracy against his government and expelled America's ambassador a few months ago. He is clearly Chávez's puppet, ironic given their diatribes against colonialism and imperialism.

What good has he done for Bolivia's indigenous population? I've yet to see concrete achievements beyond wild rhetoric and nationalization proposals.

[Tender Branson]

About 70% of the vote in:

Yes - 59.5%
No - 40.5%

[Vasall des Midas]

La Paz 76% aye, only slightly behind national on counting
Cochabamba 65% aye, almost all in
Oruro 72% aye, 90+ in
Potosì 72% aye, still less than half in (so added areas must have been ~85% aye)

Chuquisaca 45% aye, slightly ahead of national
Tarija 43% aye, count complete
Sta Cruz 29% aye, a little over half in
Beni 29% aye, a little under half in
Pando 41% aye, count complete

[rob in cal]

Darn it, the initial plans for a unicameral legislature had been dropped so the new constitution retains a senate.  Oh well. So much for Morales being a carbon copy of Chavez.