Rothenberg Gubernatorial Rankings
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Nym90
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« Reply #50 on: October 02, 2009, 09:35:29 PM »
Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings. 2009 races in italics.
# - Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (5 R, 5 D)

    * CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)
    * FL Open (Crist, R)
    * HI Open (Lingle, R)
    * RI Open (Carcieri, R)
    * VT Open (Douglas, R) #
    * KS Open (Parkinson, D)
    * Corzine (D-NJ)
    * OK Open (Henry, D)
    * TN Open (Bredesen, D)
    * WY Open (Freudenthal, D)

Toss-Up (3 R, 6 D)

    * Brewer (R-AZ)
    * Gibbons (R-NV)
    * MN Open (Pawlenty, R)
    * Paterson (D-NY) *
    * Ritter (D-CO) *
    * MI Open (Granholm, D)
    * PA Open (Rendell, D)
    * VA Open (Kaine, D)
    * WI Open (Doyle, D) *

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 3 D)

    * GA Open (Perdue, R)
    * Culver (D-IA) *
    * Patrick (D-MA) *
    * Strickland (D-OH)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (4 R, 3 D)

    * Herbert (R-UT)
    * Rell (R-CT)
    * AL Open (Riley, R)
    * SC Open (Sanford, R)
    * Quinn (D-IL)
    * ME Open (Baldacci, D)
    * NM Open (Richardson, D)

Currently Safe (5 R, 4 D)

    * Heineman (R-NE)
    * Otter (R-ID)
    * Parnell (R-AK)
    * Perry (R-TX)
    * SD Open (Rounds, R) *
    * Beebe (D-AR)
    * Lynch (D-NH)
    * O'Malley (D-MD)
    * OR Open (Kulongoski, D)
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #51 on: October 03, 2009, 12:06:02 PM »
I don't have much to complain about here, but I might put PA in "Lean Takeover" for now.  It's clear that Corbett has a significant leg up on the competition.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #52 on: October 05, 2009, 12:05:36 AM »
Why is Florida in the "lean takeover" column?
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #53 on: October 05, 2009, 09:17:20 AM »
Maybe because McCollum-R is a lousy candidate.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #54 on: October 05, 2009, 09:28:24 AM »
Quote from: Ronnie on October 05, 2009, 12:05:36 AM
Why is Florida in the "lean takeover" column?

Beats me.  McCollum has pretty much lead in every poll, no?
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Nym90
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« Reply #55 on: October 10, 2009, 07:10:41 PM »
Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings. 2009 races in italics.
# - Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (4 R, 6 D)

    * CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)
    * HI Open (Lingle, R)
    * RI Open (Carcieri, R)
    * VT Open (Douglas, R)
    * KS Open (Parkinson, D)
    * Corzine (D-NJ)
    * OK Open (Henry, D)
    * TN Open (Bredesen, D)
    * VA Open (Kaine, D) *
    * WY Open (Freudenthal, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 6 D)

    * Brewer (R-AZ)
    * Gibbons (R-NV)
    * FL Open (Crist, R) *
    * MN Open (Pawlenty, R)
    * Culver (D-IA) *
    * Paterson (D-NY)
    * Ritter (D-CO)
    * MI Open (Granholm, D)
    * PA Open (Rendell, D)
    * WI Open (Doyle, D)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 2 D)

    * GA Open (Perdue, R)
    * Patrick (D-MA)
    * Strickland (D-OH)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 3 D)

    * Rell (R-CT)
    * AL Open (Riley, R)
    * SC Open (Sanford, R)
    * Quinn (D-IL)
    * ME Open (Baldacci, D)
    * NM Open (Richardson, D)

Currently Safe (6 R, 4 D)

    * Herbert (R-UT) *
    * Heineman (R-NE)
    * Otter (R-ID)
    * Parnell (R-AK)
    * Perry (R-TX)
    * SD Open (Rounds, R)
    * Beebe (D-AR)
    * Lynch (D-NH)
    * O'Malley (D-MD)
    * OR Open (Kulongoski, D)
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #56 on: October 10, 2009, 07:11:13 PM »
Not sure why Corzine hasn't been moved back to tossup.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #57 on: October 11, 2009, 05:04:34 PM »
Quote from: Senator RowanBrandon on October 10, 2009, 07:11:13 PM
Not sure why Corzine hasn't been moved back to tossup.

Yeah, that doesn't make much sense.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #58 on: October 13, 2009, 07:05:32 PM »
Quote from: Strawberry Mouth on October 11, 2009, 05:04:34 PM
Quote from: Senator RowanBrandon on October 10, 2009, 07:11:13 PM
Not sure why Corzine hasn't been moved back to tossup.

Yeah, that doesn't make much sense.

Stu wrote about this race in a recent column. He's discounting Corzine's chances because he is still polling at such a low ceiling.
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Nym90
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« Reply #59 on: October 26, 2009, 01:13:44 PM »
Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings. 2009 races in italics.
# - Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (4 R, 5 D)

    * CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)
    * HI Open (Lingle, R)
    * RI Open (Carcieri, R)
    * VT Open (Douglas, R)
    * KS Open (Parkinson, D)
    * OK Open (Henry, D)
    * TN Open (Bredesen, D)
    * VA Open (Kaine, D)
    * WY Open (Freudenthal, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 7 D)

    * Brewer (R-AZ)
    * Gibbons (R-NV)
    * FL Open (Crist, R)
    * MN Open (Pawlenty, R)
    * Corzine (D-NJ) #
    * Culver (D-IA)
    * Paterson (D-NY)
    * Ritter (D-CO)
    * MI Open (Granholm, D)
    * PA Open (Rendell, D)
    * WI Open (Doyle, D)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 2 D)

    * GA Open (Perdue, R)
    * Patrick (D-MA)
    * Strickland (D-OH)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 3 D)

    * Rell (R-CT)
    * AL Open (Riley, R)
    * SC Open (Sanford, R)
    * Quinn (D-IL)
    * ME Open (Baldacci, D)
    * NM Open (Richardson, D)

Currently Safe (6 R, 4 D)

    * Herbert (R-UT)
    * Heineman (R-NE)
    * Otter (R-ID)
    * Parnell (R-AK)
    * Perry (R-TX)
    * SD Open (Rounds, R)
    * Beebe (D-AR)
    * Lynch (D-NH)
    * O'Malley (D-MD)
    * OR Open (Kulongoski, D)
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Nym90
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« Reply #60 on: November 04, 2009, 02:18:33 PM »
Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings.
# - Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (4 R, 4 D)

    * CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)
    * HI Open (Lingle, R)
    * RI Open (Carcieri, R)
    * VT Open (Douglas, R)
    * KS Open (Parkinson, D)
    * OK Open (Henry, D)
    * TN Open (Bredesen, D)
    * WY Open (Freudenthal, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 6 D)

    * Brewer (R-AZ)
    * Gibbons (R-NV)
    * FL Open (Crist, R)
    * MN Open (Pawlenty, R)
    * Culver (D-IA)
    * Paterson (D-NY)
    * Ritter (D-CO)
    * MI Open (Granholm, D)
    * PA Open (Rendell, D)
    * WI Open (Doyle, D)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 2 D)

    * GA Open (Perdue, R)
    * Patrick (D-MA)
    * Strickland (D-OH)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 3 D)

    * Rell (R-CT)
    * AL Open (Riley, R)
    * SC Open (Sanford, R)
    * Quinn (D-IL)
    * ME Open (Baldacci, D)
    * NM Open (Richardson, D)

Currently Safe (6 R, 4 D)

    * Herbert (R-UT)
    * Heineman (R-NE)
    * Otter (R-ID)
    * Parnell (R-AK)
    * Perry (R-TX)
    * SD Open (Rounds, R)
    * Beebe (D-AR)
    * Lynch (D-NH)
    * O'Malley (D-MD)
    * OR Open (Kulongoski, D)
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Nym90
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E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #61 on: November 14, 2009, 09:08:14 AM »
Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings.
# - Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (4 R, 4 D)

    * CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)
    * HI Open (Lingle, R)
    * RI Open (Carcieri, R)
    * VT Open (Douglas, R)
    * KS Open (Parkinson, D)
    * OK Open (Henry, D)
    * TN Open (Bredesen, D)
    * WY Open (Freudenthal, D)

Toss-Up (5 R, 6 D)

    * Brewer (R-AZ)
    * Gibbons (R-NV)
    * CT Open (Rell, R) #
    * FL Open (Crist, R)
    * MN Open (Pawlenty, R)
    * Culver (D-IA)
    * Paterson (D-NY)
    * Ritter (D-CO)
    * MI Open (Granholm, D)
    * PA Open (Rendell, D)
    * WI Open (Doyle, D)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 2 D)

    * GA Open (Perdue, R)
    * Patrick (D-MA)
    * Strickland (D-OH)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 3 D)

    * AL Open (Riley, R)
    * SC Open (Sanford, R)
    * Quinn (D-IL)
    * ME Open (Baldacci, D)
    * NM Open (Richardson, D)

Currently Safe (6 R, 4 D)

    * Herbert (R-UT)
    * Heineman (R-NE)
    * Otter (R-ID)
    * Parnell (R-AK)
    * Perry (R-TX)
    * SD Open (Rounds, R)
    * Beebe (D-AR)
    * Lynch (D-NH)
    * O'Malley (D-MD)
    * OR Open (Kulongoski, D)
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #62 on: November 14, 2009, 10:15:21 AM »
Has Freudenthal commented on whether or not he will retire?
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Nym90
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E: -5.55, S: -2.96

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« Reply #63 on: December 04, 2009, 11:11:08 AM »
« Edited: December 04, 2009, 11:13:51 AM by Nym90 »
Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings.
# - Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (6 R, 6 D)

    * Brewer (R-AZ) #
    * CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)
    * CT Open (Rell, R) #
    * HI Open (Lingle, R)
    * RI Open (Carcieri, R)
    * VT Open (Douglas, R)
    * Culver (D-IA) *
    * KS Open (Parkinson, D)
    * MI Open (Granholm, D) *
    * OK Open (Henry, D)
    * TN Open (Bredesen, D)
    * WY Open (Freudenthal, D)

Toss-Up (2 R, 4 D)

    * FL Open (Crist, R)
    * MN Open (Pawlenty, R)
    * Ritter (D-CO)
    * Strickland (D-OH) *
    * PA Open (Rendell, D)
    * WI Open (Doyle, D)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 2 D)

    * Gibbons (R-NV) *
    * GA Open (Perdue, R)
    * Patrick (D-MA)
    * ME Open (Baldacci, D) *

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 3 D)

    * Perry (R-TX) #
    * AL Open (Riley, R)
    * SC Open (Sanford, R)
    * Paterson (D-NY) #
    * Quinn (D-IL)
    * NM Open (Richardson, D)

Currently Safe (5 R, 4 D)

    * Herbert (R-UT)
    * Heineman (R-NE)
    * Otter (R-ID)
    * Parnell (R-AK)
    * SD Open (Rounds, R)
    * Beebe (D-AR)
    * Lynch (D-NH)
    * O'Malley (D-MD)
    * OR Open (Kulongoski, D)
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Nym90
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« Reply #64 on: January 08, 2010, 10:23:28 AM »
Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings.
# - Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (6 R, 7 D)

    * Brewer (R-AZ)
    * CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)
    * CT Open (Rell, R)
    * HI Open (Lingle, R)
    * RI Open (Carcieri, R)
    * VT Open (Douglas, R)
    * Culver (D-IA)
    * KS Open (Parkinson, D)
    * MI Open (Granholm, D)
    * OK Open (Henry, D)
    * PA Open (Rendell, D) *
    * TN Open (Bredesen, D)
    * WY Open (Freudenthal, D)

Toss-Up (2 R, 3 D)

    * FL Open (Crist, R)
    * MN Open (Pawlenty, R)
    * CO Open (Ritter, D)
    * Strickland (D-OH)
    * WI Open (Doyle, D)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 2 D)

    * Gibbons (R-NV)
    * GA Open (Perdue, R)
    * Patrick (D-MA)
    * ME Open (Baldacci, D)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 3 D)

    * Perry (R-TX)
    * AL Open (Riley, R)
    * SC Open (Sanford, R)
    * Paterson (D-NY)
    * Quinn (D-IL)
    * NM Open (Richardson, D)

Currently Safe (5 R, 4 D)

    * Herbert (R-UT)
    * Heineman (R-NE)
    * Otter (R-ID)
    * Parnell (R-AK)
    * SD Open (Rounds, R)
    * Beebe (D-AR)
    * Lynch (D-NH)
    * O'Malley (D-MD)
    * OR Open (Kulongoski, D)
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #65 on: January 08, 2010, 05:56:37 PM »
Clear advantage for Paterson in New York?  I don't think so.
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xavier110
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« Reply #66 on: January 08, 2010, 06:18:10 PM »
Quote from: SamInTheSouth on January 08, 2010, 05:56:37 PM
Clear advantage for Paterson in New York?  I don't think so.

Paterson's not going to be nominee? And if he were the nominee, he'd be up against....Rick Lazio.
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Nym90
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« Reply #67 on: January 11, 2010, 10:35:48 AM »
Quote from: SamInTheSouth on January 08, 2010, 05:56:37 PM
Clear advantage for Paterson in New York?  I don't think so.

The ranking reflects the likelihood of the Dems holding the seat, not the likelihood of Paterson winning reelection.
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Nym90
nym90
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« Reply #68 on: February 04, 2010, 05:30:03 PM »
Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings.
# - Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans



Lean Takeover (6 R, 7 D)

Brewer (R-AZ)
CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)
CT Open (Rell, R)
HI Open (Lingle, R)
RI Open (Carcieri, R)
VT Open (Douglas, R)
Culver (D-IA)
KS Open (Parkinson, D)
MI Open (Granholm, D)
OK Open (Henry, D)
PA Open (Rendell, D)
TN Open (Bredesen, D)
WY Open (Freudenthal, D)

Toss-Up (2 R, 4 D)

FL Open (Crist, R)
MN Open (Pawlenty, R)
CO Open (Ritter, D)
Quinn (D-IL) *
Strickland (D-OH)
WI Open (Doyle, D)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 2 D)

Gibbons (R-NV)
GA Open (Perdue, R)
Patrick (D-MA)
ME Open (Baldacci, D)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 2 D)

Perry (R-TX)
AL Open (Riley, R)
SC Open (Sanford, R)
Paterson (D-NY)
NM Open (Richardson, D)

Currently Safe (5 R, 4 D)

Herbert (R-UT)
Heineman (R-NE)
Otter (R-ID)
Parnell (R-AK)
SD Open (Rounds, R)
Beebe (D-AR)
Lynch (D-NH)
O'Malley (D-MD)
OR Open (Kulongoski, D)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #69 on: February 09, 2010, 07:27:21 PM »
They need to move AZ back to tossup with Dean Martin leading in the latest poll.  Move MI to tossup and move OH to lean takeaway.
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timmer123
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« Reply #70 on: February 10, 2010, 12:59:14 PM »
A lot of these races are tough to predict until the nominees are selected, but on the surface I think the Republicans will do well

I think we'll take CO, IL, IA, KS, MI, OH, OK, PA, TN, WI and WY.  ME, MD, OR are unclear right now, but not out of the question.

Dems may win CA, that's their best chance to win a seat that means anything.

Dems win CT, VT, HI and RI which = completely meaningless.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #71 on: February 24, 2010, 02:43:29 AM »
Quote from: timmer123 on February 10, 2010, 12:59:14 PM
A lot of these races are tough to predict until the nominees are selected, but on the surface I think the Republicans will do well

I think we'll take CO, IL, IA, KS, MI, OH, OK, PA, TN, WI and WY.  ME, MD, OR are unclear right now, but not out of the question.

Dems may win CA, that's their best chance to win a seat that means anything.

Dems win CT, VT, HI and RI which = completely meaningless.

Sorry, but no.
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The Hype
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« Reply #72 on: February 24, 2010, 02:44:46 AM »

Lol, sorry to burst the bubble but CA is not going to elect Jerry Brown in 2010.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #73 on: February 24, 2010, 02:53:10 AM »
Quote from: The Hype on February 24, 2010, 02:44:46 AM

Lol, sorry to burst the bubble but CA is not going to elect Jerry Brown in 2010.

If Jerry Brown drops dead between now and Election Day, yeah.
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The Hype
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« Reply #74 on: February 24, 2010, 02:54:34 AM »
Quote from: Хahar on February 24, 2010, 02:53:10 AM
Quote from: The Hype on February 24, 2010, 02:44:46 AM

Lol, sorry to burst the bubble but CA is not going to elect Jerry Brown in 2010.

If Jerry Brown drops dead between now and Election Day, yeah.

He will not win once he actually has to start campaigning.
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