1976 if Mccarthy makes New York ballot

[rob in cal]

I read somewhere (maybe Marathon, the book about the 76 election) that had Eugene Mccarthy made the New York ballot Ford might have had a chance to win that state and thus the election.  Carter had about a 4% lead in the state (about 300,000 votes) and even if Mccarthy had made the ballot I can't see him doing all that well, as he normally won about 1% of the vote in states where he was on the ballot.  Assuming he did extra well in New York, say even winning 250,000 votes, how many of those votes would have come from otherwise Ford leaning voters.  Surely a reasonable minority of the overall total.  So, I'd argue that had he made the ballot it would have made for a more interesting race, but not likely  have changed things.  Of course, would the Ford campaign decide to make a bigger effort in the state had he been on the ballot? Also, what if the Liberal Party decided to nominate Mccarthy, giving him an established ballot line in the state without him having to win ballot status through some one time only party.

[Lincoln Republican]

I do agree that with McCarthy on the New York ballot in 1976, as an independent or as the candidate of the Liberal Party, that this would have tightened the race somewhat, however, I am of the view that Carter still wins the state, even with McCarthy on the ballot.

Most of the McCarthy votes would have come from Carter, however, a fair share would still have come from Ford, as Ford was more of a moderate Republican.

Had Nelson Rockefeller remained the Republican Vice Presidential nominee, I believe Ford would have won New York.

However, with Rockefeller still on the ticket, this raises the possibility that some of the other, more conservative states, won by Ford, may have gone to Carter.