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| | |-+  Kansas: Sebelius looking good
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Author Topic: Kansas: Sebelius looking good  (Read 5538 times)
Holmes
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« on: February 06, 2009, 02:51:03 pm »
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Is there gonna be a poll section added like other years btw?

Republican Primary (MoE 5% for GOP oversample[does that exist in Kansas?])

Tiahrt 24
Moran 19
Undecided 57

General Election

Tiahrt (R) 37
Sebelius (D) 47

Moran (R) 36
Sebelius (D) 48

Link + Crosstabs

Also

vs.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2009, 02:55:51 pm »
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Don't know if that's "looking good."

I thought an incumbent running under 50% (granted with a sizeable lead on her hypothetical opponents) could be considered "in trouble."

Shrug
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A Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative NE Republican with some Left-Libertarian/3rd Way Leanings. Simply, a Rockefeller Republican.

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Holmes
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« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2009, 03:00:48 pm »
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Sebelius is not an incumbent, and 50% of voters in Kansas in 2008 were Republican. Smiley
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2009, 03:02:05 pm »
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Sebelius is not an incumbent, and 50% of voters in Kansas in 2008 were Republican. Smiley

Sebelius not an incumbent?
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A Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative NE Republican with some Left-Libertarian/3rd Way Leanings. Simply, a Rockefeller Republican.

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bullmoose88
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« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2009, 03:03:14 pm »
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Facepalm.  Duh.  I see.
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A Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative NE Republican with some Left-Libertarian/3rd Way Leanings. Simply, a Rockefeller Republican.

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bullmoose88
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« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2009, 03:08:50 pm »
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For Senate...(duh)...still I'd argue that given how well known Sebelius is and that she currently holds a big office....you can kind of sort of treat her as the "incumbent."
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« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2009, 03:16:44 pm »
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Much better than I would have expected. Given name recognition differentials, Sebelius has an obvious advantage, but still. I guess Kansas should be a toss-up after all.
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« Reply #7 on: February 06, 2009, 04:09:19 pm »
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Nice.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2009, 04:14:32 pm »
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Better than expected, but she does have a name recognition advantage.

Can Kansas send a Democrat to the Senate?  It's an open question, but there's little doubt that this is the best chance in years (decades?).
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« Reply #9 on: February 06, 2009, 04:46:08 pm »
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Cool, people in Kansas know their governor's name.  Thanks Markos
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2009, 05:31:13 pm »
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she still needs to, you know, run
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Former Moderate
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« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2009, 05:43:05 pm »
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Good enough to distract and siphon resources from candidates who can actually win their races in other states.  The smart money here is still on a GOP hold.
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Lunar
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« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2009, 05:44:05 pm »
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she still needs to, you know, run

This poll was partially an attempt to encourage this
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Holmes
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« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2009, 05:46:31 pm »
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One of the criticisms I'm seeing is that if this is Sebelius' ceiling. There seems to be improvement in the Democratic and Independent numbers maybe, but really I dunno too much about Kansas voting patterns so.
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« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2009, 12:36:22 am »
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Sebelius will win if she runs, but I don't think she will.
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« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2009, 12:41:57 am »
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If she runs she wins.  I think she will run, because she is still a rising star in the Democratic Party.  If she runs, we're likely to see a flip-flop with Sebelius going to the Senate and Brownback going to Topeka.  Voters will probably view that as a "fair-trade".
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Lunar
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« Reply #16 on: February 07, 2009, 01:04:09 am »
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If she runs she wins.  I think she will run, because she is still a rising star in the Democratic Party.  If she runs, we're likely to see a flip-flop with Sebelius going to the Senate and Brownback going to Topeka.  Voters will probably view that as a "fair-trade".

Sebelius will win if she runs, but I don't think she will.

Uh, guys, if she runs she'll still be a favorite to lose.  Imagine if there was an open seat in Rhode Island, it doesn't mean that their governor, a popular Republican, would win.

Sebelius may run, and she may win, but she'd have a harder time running without a GOP Lt. Governor like she has in the past and a simple aura of competence in order to win the day: senate races are far more partisan affairs.

Read as: Get real and wake up in the real world.  Sebelius will have at least a slightly uphill battle to climb, but it's doable Smiley 
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benconstine
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« Reply #17 on: February 07, 2009, 10:19:30 am »
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Sebelius is the only shot we have to take this seat.  Even if she runs, it's not certain she'll win.
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« Reply #18 on: February 08, 2009, 11:54:37 am »
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Well, Kathy is the top contender for HHS Secretary (not surprising, since she was the state Insurance Commissioner and a big Obama booster), so mark this one down to Safe Republican.
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Lunar
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« Reply #19 on: February 08, 2009, 11:57:48 am »
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Well, Kathy is the top contender for HHS Secretary (not surprising, since she was the state Insurance Commissioner and a big Obama booster), so mark this one down to Safe Republican.

Uh, how do you know who is the top contender?

Rahm, is that you?
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Franzl
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« Reply #20 on: February 08, 2009, 11:58:48 am »
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Well, Kathy is the top contender for HHS Secretary (not surprising, since she was the state Insurance Commissioner and a big Obama booster), so mark this one down to Safe Republican.

Uh, how do you know who is the top contender?

Rahm, is that you?

CNN reported it, at least.
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Lunar
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« Reply #21 on: February 08, 2009, 12:00:40 pm »
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Ah, good point.  She's near the top according to the AP.

I can't help but hope that Obama doesn't want to piss off the grassroots by eliminating another potential Senatorial candidate and would additionally prefer someone who has experience in the Senate
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #22 on: February 08, 2009, 12:01:46 pm »
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Well, Kathy is the top contender for HHS Secretary (not surprising, since she was the state Insurance Commissioner and a big Obama booster), so mark this one down to Safe Republican.

Uh, how do you know who is the top contender?

Rahm, is that you?

Excuse me, near top:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090208/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/hhs_sebelius

Quote
Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius was near the top of President Barack Obama's list of candidates to head the Health and Human Services Department, a senior administration official said Saturday.

The source, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss private administration deliberations, said no decision was imminent and that other candidates remain in the mix. But the official added the former Kansas insurance commissioner was rising as Obama considers prospective candidates, in no small part on the strength of her close relationship with the president.

(...)

Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen also was on Obama's list to run the nation's massive health programs. Already, though, some advocacy groups were lining up to oppose the Democratic governor.
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Lunar
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« Reply #23 on: February 08, 2009, 12:02:25 pm »
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yeah yeah
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Purple State
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« Reply #24 on: February 08, 2009, 01:03:10 pm »
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What else is she doing if she doesn't run for Senate and isn't the HHS pick? She can't run for governor again. Does she have better options?
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