Kansas: Sebelius looking good
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  Kansas: Sebelius looking good
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Author Topic: Kansas: Sebelius looking good  (Read 7932 times)
Holmes
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« on: February 06, 2009, 02:51:03 PM »

Is there gonna be a poll section added like other years btw?

Republican Primary (MoE 5% for GOP oversample[does that exist in Kansas?])

Tiahrt 24
Moran 19
Undecided 57

General Election

Tiahrt (R) 37
Sebelius (D) 47

Moran (R) 36
Sebelius (D) 48

Link + Crosstabs

Also

 vs.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2009, 02:55:51 PM »

Don't know if that's "looking good."

I thought an incumbent running under 50% (granted with a sizeable lead on her hypothetical opponents) could be considered "in trouble."

Shrug
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Holmes
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« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2009, 03:00:48 PM »

Sebelius is not an incumbent, and 50% of voters in Kansas in 2008 were Republican. Smiley
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2009, 03:02:05 PM »

Sebelius is not an incumbent, and 50% of voters in Kansas in 2008 were Republican. Smiley

Sebelius not an incumbent?
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2009, 03:03:14 PM »

Facepalm.  Duh.  I see.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2009, 03:08:50 PM »

For Senate...(duh)...still I'd argue that given how well known Sebelius is and that she currently holds a big office....you can kind of sort of treat her as the "incumbent."
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2009, 03:16:44 PM »

Much better than I would have expected. Given name recognition differentials, Sebelius has an obvious advantage, but still. I guess Kansas should be a toss-up after all.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #7 on: February 06, 2009, 04:09:19 PM »

Nice.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2009, 04:14:32 PM »

Better than expected, but she does have a name recognition advantage.

Can Kansas send a Democrat to the Senate?  It's an open question, but there's little doubt that this is the best chance in years (decades?).
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Lunar
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« Reply #9 on: February 06, 2009, 04:46:08 PM »

Cool, people in Kansas know their governor's name.  Thanks Markos
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2009, 05:31:13 PM »

she still needs to, you know, run
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2009, 05:43:05 PM »

Good enough to distract and siphon resources from candidates who can actually win their races in other states.  The smart money here is still on a GOP hold.
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Lunar
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« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2009, 05:44:05 PM »


This poll was partially an attempt to encourage this
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Holmes
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« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2009, 05:46:31 PM »

One of the criticisms I'm seeing is that if this is Sebelius' ceiling. There seems to be improvement in the Democratic and Independent numbers maybe, but really I dunno too much about Kansas voting patterns so.
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2009, 12:36:22 AM »

Sebelius will win if she runs, but I don't think she will.
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2009, 12:41:57 AM »

If she runs she wins.  I think she will run, because she is still a rising star in the Democratic Party.  If she runs, we're likely to see a flip-flop with Sebelius going to the Senate and Brownback going to Topeka.  Voters will probably view that as a "fair-trade".
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Lunar
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« Reply #16 on: February 07, 2009, 01:04:09 AM »

If she runs she wins.  I think she will run, because she is still a rising star in the Democratic Party.  If she runs, we're likely to see a flip-flop with Sebelius going to the Senate and Brownback going to Topeka.  Voters will probably view that as a "fair-trade".

Sebelius will win if she runs, but I don't think she will.

Uh, guys, if she runs she'll still be a favorite to lose.  Imagine if there was an open seat in Rhode Island, it doesn't mean that their governor, a popular Republican, would win.

Sebelius may run, and she may win, but she'd have a harder time running without a GOP Lt. Governor like she has in the past and a simple aura of competence in order to win the day: senate races are far more partisan affairs.

Read as: Get real and wake up in the real world.  Sebelius will have at least a slightly uphill battle to climb, but it's doable Smiley 
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benconstine
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« Reply #17 on: February 07, 2009, 10:19:30 AM »

Sebelius is the only shot we have to take this seat.  Even if she runs, it's not certain she'll win.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #18 on: February 08, 2009, 11:54:37 AM »

Well, Kathy is the top contender for HHS Secretary (not surprising, since she was the state Insurance Commissioner and a big Obama booster), so mark this one down to Safe Republican.
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Lunar
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« Reply #19 on: February 08, 2009, 11:57:48 AM »

Well, Kathy is the top contender for HHS Secretary (not surprising, since she was the state Insurance Commissioner and a big Obama booster), so mark this one down to Safe Republican.

Uh, how do you know who is the top contender?

Rahm, is that you?
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Franzl
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« Reply #20 on: February 08, 2009, 11:58:48 AM »

Well, Kathy is the top contender for HHS Secretary (not surprising, since she was the state Insurance Commissioner and a big Obama booster), so mark this one down to Safe Republican.

Uh, how do you know who is the top contender?

Rahm, is that you?

CNN reported it, at least.
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Lunar
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« Reply #21 on: February 08, 2009, 12:00:40 PM »

Ah, good point.  She's near the top according to the AP.

I can't help but hope that Obama doesn't want to piss off the grassroots by eliminating another potential Senatorial candidate and would additionally prefer someone who has experience in the Senate
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #22 on: February 08, 2009, 12:01:46 PM »

Well, Kathy is the top contender for HHS Secretary (not surprising, since she was the state Insurance Commissioner and a big Obama booster), so mark this one down to Safe Republican.

Uh, how do you know who is the top contender?

Rahm, is that you?

Excuse me, near top:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090208/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/hhs_sebelius

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Lunar
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« Reply #23 on: February 08, 2009, 12:02:25 PM »

yeah yeah
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Purple State
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« Reply #24 on: February 08, 2009, 01:03:10 PM »

What else is she doing if she doesn't run for Senate and isn't the HHS pick? She can't run for governor again. Does she have better options?
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