2012 Obama/Clinton vs. Romney/Crist

[anvi]

The Incumbant President and his Ticket:

President Obama's first term is a mixed bag.  There has been a gradual uptick in the economy due to seveal stimmulus plans and about 4.5 million jobs have been created.  The bulk of U.S. forces have been withdrawn from Iraq and those which have been transferred to Afghnistan have resulted in some stabilization, though calls have been growing to bring forces home from that troubled region as well.  Israel and Palestine are in ongoing, difficult negotiations, though relations in the Middle East have generally improved.  In 2011, it is revealed that Osama bin Laden has died of natural causes, but the al Qaeda network has been significantly depleted.  On the other hand, the stummulus plans that have provided some spark to the American economy have also resulted in massive budget deficits, and this led to some pickups of seats for Republicans in both the House and Senate in 2010.  Iran and North Korea remain erratic, first entering into tentative agreements and then renouncing them, and both counties continue to threaten to arm themselves with deliverable nuclear weapons.  As 2011 draws to a close, Vice-President Biden announces that he will not remain on the ticket in 2012 for personal and health reasons, though he will complete his term, and Obama chooses Secretary of State Clinton to be his running mate.

The Challengers:
The primary field is crowded and star-studded: the major candidates include Romney, Crist, Huckabee, Palin, Pawlenty and Jindal.  In the early primaries, Crist picks up Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida while Romney wins in Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina.  After Super Tuesday, Romney has a lead over Crist due to his victories in the southwest and mountain states, but Crist is backed by moderate Republicans and Huckabee, having won a few primaries in the South, stays in, while Palin, Pawlenty and Jindal drop out.  Crist, who is unable to capture the base of the party and in the face of rumors rampant about his personal life, begins to fade.  Romney's momentum and mounting delegate count compel Crist to bow out of the race at the beginning of May, and Huckabee quickly follows.  Out of a wish to unite the party and have a shot at Florida in the fall, Romney picks Crist as his running mate.  They campaign against the President on the basis of the huge government deficits, the still-struggling economy, and the outstanding problems in Iran and North Korea. 

How does the general election turn out?  Discuss with maps if you like and with maps approximating 2012 electoral vote values if you are able.

[Tender Branson]

The Obama/Clinton ticket would be unbeatable.

[Psychic Octopus]

The Obama/Clinton ticket would be unbeatable never happen.

[anvi]

The Obama/Clinton ticket would be unbeatable never happen.

Says you.  It has been reported that, even in late summer, when the Obama team had already in principle settled on Biden as the VP choice, Obama would still occasionally sit down with senior advisors and ask them whether or not they were sure he shouldn't pick Clinton.  So, he mulled over it somewhat seriously.  Besides, this is an alternative elections forum, a place to play with possibilities, and I'm willing to bet that, if Obama had a rocky term and Biden for some reason were not to sign on for a second term, Clinton would be who he would go to.

[Psychic Octopus]

Ok I will do it:

Obama-Clinton 276
Romney-Crist 262

Obama pulls it off Wilsonesquely.

[anvi]

Thanks for being a sport, NiK.  Interesting map.  If Romney wins Colorado, he might win Nevada too, especially given his history with the state.  Just a possibility.

[pbrower2a]

My take:

Obama-Clinton 331
Romney-Crist 207

It would happen only if Obama were in danger of losing the re-election bid; I think that he wouldn't choose Hillary Clinton if something happened to Biden. It's hard to imagine the President turning to the Secretary of State to become Vice-President.

[tmthforu94]

Will not post numbers, since some states will change in electoral votes...

[Josh/Devilman88]

Will not post numbers, since some states will change in electoral votes...

Funny map

[tmthforu94]

Will not post numbers, since some states will change in electoral votes...

Funny map

It's not funny...
I know Obama will mess up.
Quiet honestly, I was probably biased towards Obama. It could have been much worse.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Two comments...

1. Crist is a good running mate. Gives us Florida back and those crucial electoral votes.

2. Obama dropping his vice president makes him look weak.

1.  The VP doesn't swing states.  You should know that.
2.  Obama didn't drop Biden; Biden quit because of his health.

[Franzl]

Will not post numbers, since some states will change in electoral votes...

Very unlikely that Romney comes anywhere close to winning Michigan.

[jamestroll]

At least 400 electoral votes for Obama.

[tmthforu94]

Will not post numbers, since some states will change in electoral votes...

Very unlikely that Romney comes anywhere close to winning Michigan.

When people thought that Romney might be VP, Michigan polls were very close. It started tilting Obama once Palin was selected, and not Romney. But Obama would have won anyways, thanks to the stock market crash,

[Josh/Devilman88]

Will not post numbers, since some states will change in electoral votes...

Funny map

It's not funny...
I know Obama will mess up.
Quiet honestly, I was probably biased towards Obama. It could have been much worse.

No it is funny, because Romney would win NV, VA, CO and IA before he wins MI.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Will not post numbers, since some states will change in electoral votes...

Very unlikely that Romney comes anywhere close to winning Michigan.

When people thought that Romney might be VP, Michigan polls were very close. It started tilting Obama once Palin was selected, and not Romney. But Obama would have won anyways, thanks to the stock market crash,

No, that is wrong. At that time the whole FL and MI delegates debate was going on. If you remeber Obama didn't want to seat the delegates, which in return made him very unpopular with people in MI.

[Holmes]

Romney wining Michigan is like Bush winning Connecticut. Don't think so.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Jesus Christ Republicans, Romney would NOT FLIP MICHIGAN BECAUSE HIS DADDY WAS GOVERNOR A MILLION YEARS AGO!

[retromike22]

What Biden chooses not to run as vp in 2012 due to health concerns or desire to retire?

[anvi]

My scenario basically envisions Biden having some sort of health scare that he would get through alright for the moment but that nonetheless convinced him that it was time to retire.  Obama, having a mixed bag of a first term on his hands, decides to go with Clinton as VP to play the strongest political hand he can in the reelection bid.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Obama manages to resolve crisis, it could be something like this :

If he don't :

[pbrower2a]

Two comments...

1. Crist is a good running mate. Gives us Florida back and those crucial electoral votes.

2. Obama dropping his vice president makes him look weak.

1.  The VP doesn't swing states.  You should know that.
2.  Obama didn't drop Biden; Biden quit because of his health.

Florida has a good chance of going republican in 2012 and with a floridan on the ticket, that could push it over the line. You should know that. (lol)

You say that running mates do not have an effect? Look at Johnson in 1960, Muskie in 1968, Agnew in 1968, Dole in 1976, Johnson in 1864 (appealed to democrats). The list goes on.

The Favorite Son effect is good for 10 points for the President, probably five for the VP. Crist likely swings Florida, but does nothing to hold Arizona or Indiana. 

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

Something like this:

[JerryBrown2010]

Something like this:

Yes Plus Georgia and Montana

[You kip if you want to...]

Something like this:

Why AR and LA?