2008: Obama/Kaine vs. Clinton/Bayh vs. Romney/Thune

[retromike22]

For this scenario, let's assume that the Democratic primaries go exactly as planned, with the exception that Florida and Michigan were considered normal primaries.  When the Democratic primaries end, Obama has just enough delegates to secure the nomination, but Hillary Clinton has a clear popular vote win. 

Instead of endorsing Obama, Clinton announces that she will run as an independent "the people's candidate."  She continues her campaign and chooses Senator Evan Bayh as her vp.  Obama chooses Governor Tim Kaine as his vp.

As for the Republicans, Romney wins the nomination and selects Senator John Thune of South Dakota as his vp.

Have fun.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Romney wins easily in that case.

[anvi]

Romney wins easily in that case.

Agreed.  Clinton and Obama rip holes into one another's electoral math, and in states where they are close enough to split the Democratic vote between them, Romney takes 40% of the vote and effectively runs the table.

[anvi]

Kinda fun map to make though; Romney wins on the heels of a host of states where he comes in at the low 40's.

Romney/Thune    353
Obama/Kaine      118
Clinton/Bayh         67

[Holmes]

If Romney were to win California, he would just squeak by. Especially considering Obama performed way better there than almost every other state in your map.

[justfollowingtheelections]

A more interesting scenario would have been Obama vs Clinton vs Duncan Hunter or something...

[anvi]

If Romney were to win California, he would just squeak by. Especially considering Obama performed way better there than almost every other state in your map.

Yeah, I agree, if Romney wins California in this scenario, it's just by a hair.  But Obama won Calfornia about 61-37 vs. McCain, so if we give Romney that same 37% and Clinton and Obama split the rest of the California vote roughly in half (Clinton won the primary there against Obama by about 10), then Romney could carry it.  But even if he lost California to Obama in this scenario, he would still get 298 electoral votes. 

[retromike22]

I actually think Clinton would win more states than Obama, because of the economic crisis in October.  An important factor to take into account is Romney's Mormon faith, which could have given him trouble in certain states (West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee).  Maybe they would see Clinton as the only one of the candidates as "one of their own"?

Another factor could be the number of people who didn't vote because Clinton was not running in the general.  I don't think the number would be a lot, but I remember reading somewhere that around 25% of her supporters in the primaries would not vote in the general.  I'm curious as to how many did not show up.

Also, if no candidate reached the necessary 270 votes, would the Democratic House give the presidency to the POPULAR vote winner?  Even if it were Clinton or Romney?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

[Daniel Z]

Romney: 531
Obama: 7
Clinton: 0

[tmthforu94]