Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[Keystone Phil]

This comes from a fairly well placed source of mine...

It turns out that not even the Montco GOP establishment is for Specter this time. I won't name names but some big deals apparently aren't "fans" and the Montco committee people (those that decide the endorsement) are said to be turning on him, too.

[Keystone Phil]

Don't get too excited, folks. He won't even make the ballot - http://www.citizensforlarrymurphy.com/

[Keystone Phil]

Peg Luksik is saying that she's leaning towards a run for the seat and she claims that Toomey's decision won't have an impact on her decision making - http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/harrisburg_politics/Toomey_said_to_be_in_but_he_may_not_be_alone.html


This won't be good. Luksik obviously isn't the power that she was in the 1990s but she would certainly make it difficult. It would give Specter a chance (though still small). That being said, I think she'll get enough pressure to get the hell out.

[Nixon in '80]

Peg Luksik is saying that she's leaning towards a run for the seat and she claims that Toomey's decision won't have an impact on her decision making - http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/harrisburg_politics/Toomey_said_to_be_in_but_he_may_not_be_alone.html


This won't be good. Luksik obviously isn't the power that she was in the 1990s but she would certainly make it difficult. It would give Specter a chance (though still small). That being said, I think she'll get enough pressure to get the hell out.

Obviously she'll get pressure, but will she respond to it? She doesn't strike me as "rational."

[Lunar]

The more obvious pressure she'll get will come from the fact that she'll raise little funds

[Keystone Phil]

Obviously she'll get pressure, but will she respond to it? She doesn't strike me as "rational."

She might be "offered" something else. There's always that Lt. Governor spot...

Who knows though? She's been an activist forever but certainly out of the spotlight for a long time. She might just crave the attention so badly and that will keep her in the race. I'm thinking that she doesn't want to lose friends over this though.

[Keystone Phil]

As expected, State Senator Mike Folmer endorses Toomey - http://grassrootspa.com/?p=24223


Folmer was one of two stars from 2006 who beat a State Senate GOP leader (the Majority leader at the time, Chip Brightbill) after the pay raise scandal. He is a star among the conservative movement in PA.

[CARLHAYDEN]

As expected, State Senator Mike Folmer endorses Toomey - http://grassrootspa.com/?p=24223


Folmer was one of two stars from 2006 who beat a State Senate GOP leader (the Majority leader at the time, Chip Brightbill) after the pay raise scandal. He is a star among the conservative movement in PA.

Phil,

The situtation is rapidly approaching a landslide state where just about every Republican official is fleeing from Specter as if he had the plague.

Would not be suprised at all if he changes parties.

However, don't expect several Democrats to give him a free pass in the primary there either.

[Keystone Phil]

As expected, State Senator Mike Folmer endorses Toomey - http://grassrootspa.com/?p=24223


Folmer was one of two stars from 2006 who beat a State Senate GOP leader (the Majority leader at the time, Chip Brightbill) after the pay raise scandal. He is a star among the conservative movement in PA.

Phil,

The situtation is rapidly approaching a landslide state where just about every Republican official is fleeing from Specter as if he had the plague.

Would not be suprised at all if he changes parties.

However, don't expect several Democrats to give him a free pass in the primary there either.

Some will still stick with him but as I've noted elsewhere, it's hilarious how even his friends in the establishment are pissed off and don't want him or don't care to see him lose. The fact that he's struggling within the Montco GOP is about as funny as it gets. I can't wait to see how many of my fellow Ward leaders give him a hard time when the Philly GOP meets to endorse a candidate.

I've made it clear that it would come as no surprise if Specter switched. I believe that that's his only chance at keeping the seat.

He'll be given a pass in the primary. The powers that be will see to it that he has no serious problems. Mark my words. I'd love to be wrong though.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

If Specter switches and becomes the Dem nominee, would it be possible for a legit left winger to run as an indie to satisfy the liberals who don't want to vote for Specter or Toomey? Does Pennsylvania law allow for that to happen? I can't see the liberals in PA being happy with a centrist Specter running as a Dem versus a right of center Toomey.

[Lunar]

Well, it'd be possible.  I don't see it.  It's a very partisan machine state that is accepting of moderates.  The left-winger would be handing the election to Toomey if anything.

If they were going to try and beat Specter, they'd do it in the primary, with a more favorable electorate and an actual chance of winning.

[Keystone Phil]

If Specter switches and becomes the Dem nominee, would it be possible for a legit left winger to run as an indie to satisfy the liberals who don't want to vote for Specter or Toomey? Does Pennsylvania law allow for that to happen? I can't see the liberals in PA being happy with a centrist Specter running as a Dem versus a right of center Toomey.

Why would the law prohibit that? Of course they can but I don't see it happening. The Toomey campaign would help a Green party candidate or an Independent get on the ballot (this is normal here, by the way, people. Hoeffel's campaign helped Constitution party candidate Jim Clymer in 2004) but no big name with money would do it.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2009/03/08/f/

Found this article on AOL's homepage. I don't place much stock in though.

[Lunar]

I don't see what not to put stock in, it's standard speculation, eh?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I don't see what not to put stock in, it's standard speculation, eh?

You right. I hadn't read the other posts yet about how wide spread the speculation was. I had better things to attend to over the weekend then politics unfortunately and I have not been on here since Friday.

[Keystone Phil]

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/santorum-mum-on-specter-toomey-rematch-2009-03-09.html

Not exactly a good sign from someone that put almost everything he had into making sure Specter was re-nominated.

[Lunar]

Really?  I think that response was obvious.  He wishes he could back Toomey for his current base (national conservative profile, especially against the stimpack and EFCA) but can't because of obvious hypocrisy from his previous line of work where his base was different (Specter supporters in PA, Senate leadership attempts).

If he was anything but "mum" this early, I'd be very surprised

[Keystone Phil]

Really?  I think that response was obvious.  He wishes he could back Toomey for his current base (national conservative profile, especially against the stimpack and EFCA) but can't because of obvious hypocrisy from his previous line of work where his base was different (Specter supporters in PA, Senate leadership attempts).

If he was anything but "mum" this early, I'd be very surprised

I think why he's staying mum. It's not surprising. However, it's an obvious sign that Specter won't get an endorsement. Santorum has basically made his apologies. Sure, the hardcore bitter folks will still get on his case for being hypocritical on this but he's already kissed up to Toomey after 2004. He's either endorsing Pat or staying out.

[Keystone Phil]

The guy that runs Politics1 spoke to a "long time Specter operative" that claims that a party switch and other options are on the table.

What the hell are the other options? He can run as a Dem, a Republican or retire. This guy won't retire and running as an Independent is absolute suicide. He couldn't win.

[Lunar]

aren't "a Republican, or retire" two other options"

[Keystone Phil]

aren't "a Republican, or retire" two other options"

I'm saying that retiring isn't a real option for this guy. It would be a shocker. As for running as a Republican, technically, it is an option but I don't think that's the best way to word it as a thirty year Republican incumbent.

[Lunar]

murder suicide?  maybe sue the RNSC like Bunning? I can't think of anything else, maybe just an interesting spokesman phrase

[Lunar]

Luksik seems determined to give Specter a lifeline in the GOP primary:
http://www.tribune-democrat.com/local/local_story_068232130.html

I seriously amused when a vulnerable incumbent, like "Dollar Bill" Jefferson, attracts so many power hungry bears (vultures) that it saves him.  The same thing is on the verge of happening in New York as well.

[Keystone Phil]

Luksik seems determined to give Specter a lifeline in the GOP primary:
http://www.tribune-democrat.com/local/local_story_068232130.html

I seriously amused when a vulnerable incumbent, like "Dollar Bill" Jefferson, attracts so many power hungry bears (vultures) that it saves him.  The same thing is on the verge of happening in New York as well.

There won't be many. At most, it will be Luksik, Toomey and Specter. Others won't even make the ballot. Don't be surprised if Luksik doesn't either. She's not the huge force she was in the 1990s. Plus, I still think she's going to get enough pressure to stay away. Worst case scenario - she stays in. I still don't believe that she pulls in enough people to give Specter a win.

[Lunar]

Oh, I don't think Specter would win with both of them in the primary either.  I mean, there will be one heavily funded primary opponent.

A cynic in me wants to suggest that Luksik is either doing this in an attempt to:
1) Force Toomey out of the primary
or 2) Keep Specter in the GOP before it's too late to switch by giving him hope