The Dark Horse(Election Night-2012)

[Josh/Devilman88]

President Obama has only cut unemployment to 5.8% by 2010, going into the 2010 midterm elections. Many said that the Democrats would gain 5 seats but the only seat that democrats gained was in New Hampshire.

By Feb. of 2011 the economy didn't look any better, President Obama approve ratings are at 52%. By the end of Feb Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee both stated they wouldn't run for president. Rumors were flying around that Mitt Romney, would run and no one else would run.

On March 2nd Mitt Romney stated on CNN that he would run for President. That very same day Ron Paul said he too would run again.  On March 3rd Fox News stated that there is a rumor inside the top republican senators that one of there own would run.

On March 10th, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul had a new player in the field, Sen. Richard Burr held a rally in Winston-Salem, NC and stated he would run for President. He said he would bring the party of Ronald Reagan back in power.

Rasy poll on March 15th.

1. If the Republican Primary was held today who would you vote for?

Rep. Ron Paul: 3%
Frm Gov. Mitt Romney: 42%
Sen. Richard Burr: 34%
Unsure: 21%

2. If the Election were held today and it was Pres. Obama vs. Mitt Romney who would you vote for?

Pres. Obama: 46%
Mitt Romney: 42%
Unsure: 12%

3: If the Election were held today and it was Pres. Obama vs. Richard Burr who would you vote for?

Pres. Obama: 48%
Richard Burr: 37%
Unsure: 15

[Josh/Devilman88]

Both Sen. Burr and Mitt Romney were in and out of IA, NH, NV and SC. Because the Republican went with the Ohio Plan 2 for their primary, things were done a little different. The first difference were, no caucuses, they changed them all to primaries. Also all delegates are proportional to the percent that the candidate won with the popular vote. Plus there are no superdelegates at all.  This map shows when primaries were held:




By December of 2011, Pres. Obama approve ratings were around 48%. Every thing he tried to get to work seemed fail.

Also in December were the 1st republican debate. The debate came out a draw between Sen. Burr and Mitt Romney.

Rasy Dec poll

IA Poll:

Romney: 47%
Burr: 46%
Paul: 2%
Unsure: 5%

____________

NH Poll:

Romney: 51%
Burr: 39%
Paul: 5%
Unsure: 5%

----------------------

NV poll:

Romney: 48%
Burr: 44%
Paul: 6%
Unsure: 2%

--------------

SC Poll:

Burr: 52%
Romney: 42%
Paul: 1%
Unsure: 5%


Obama: 49%
Romney:49%

Obama: 50%
Burr: 48%

[Prez Duke]

It would be pretty shocking to see only Burr challenge Rokney in 2012 considering neither one appeals to the religious right. Burr could run assuming he actually gets reelected in 2010. He hasn't been putting his name out there though.

[Josh/Devilman88]

It would be pretty shocking to see only Burr challenge Rokney in 2012 considering neither one appeals to the religious right. Burr could run assuming he actually gets reelected in 2010. He hasn't been putting his name out there though.

I have a funny feeling that Roy Cooper will not run and Burr will be re-elected.

[Josh/Devilman88]

As the new year comes, Presidet Obama seems to get thing together, by Jan 31st the economy seems to get a little better, he gets more popular. Richard Burr said at a rally in IA that the economy is getting better, not because of Pres. Obama, but because the Republicans in the House and Senate pushed some of their economy plan through. Romney on the other hand in a rally in IA states that Burr is far right for America and he is the only candidate that will be able to get the indy vote.

Jan 31st Rasy polls(Day before IA primary)

IA:
Romney: 51%
Burr: 48%
unsure: 3%

NH:
Romney: 58%
Burr: 35%
Paul: 4%
Unsure: 3%

NV:
Romeny: 51%
Burr: 39%
Paul: 6%
Unsure: 4%

SC:
Burr: 50%
Romney: 48%
Unsure: 2%
------------------------

Obama: 50
Romney: 47

Obama: 52
Burr: 43

[RIP Robert H Bork]

It would be pretty shocking to see only Burr challenge Rokney in 2012 considering neither one appeals to the religious right. Burr could run assuming he actually gets reelected in 2010. He hasn't been putting his name out there though.

I have a funny feeling that Roy Cooper will not run and Burr will be re-elected.

Even funnier is that I have that exact same feeling.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Iowa Primary Results

Winner: Mitt Romeny



Results:
Mitt Romney: 48% (19 delegates)
Richard Burr: 47% (19 delegates)
Ron Paul: 5% (2 delegates)
----------

Many were shocked to see Burr come so close to winning, also shocked to see Ron Paul get 5%.  The exit polling shows that Paul got alot of the young vote, while Burr religious right and half of the indy vote. Romney got the indy and the more liberal voter.


Wen. Polling from Rasy(Day before NH)

NH:
Romney: 46%
Burr: 40%
Paul: 10%
Unsure: 4%
--------

NV:
Romney: 54%
Burr: 37%
Paul: 8%
Unsure: 1%
----------------

SC:
Burr: 55%
Romney: 43%
Unsure: 2%

Obama: 50
Romney: 45

Obama: 53
Burr: 44

[Josh/Devilman88]

Results Map:



Green: Mitt Romney- 19 delegates
Blue: Richard Burr-  19 delegates
Red: Ron Paul- 2 delegates

[Josh/Devilman88]

New Hampshire Primary Results

Winner: Richard Burr



Results:

Richard Burr: 46% (6 delegates)
Mitt Romney: 45% (5 delegates)
Ron Paul: 9% (1 delegate)


To everyone's shock Richard Burr pulled off a win in NH, but how did he do it. Well, He can thank the growing support of Ron Paul in NH. Also Richard Burr picked up more indy/libearl voters in NH then in IA.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Results Map:



Green: Mitt Romney (24 delegates)
Blue: Richard Burr (25 delegates)
Red: Ron Paul (3 Delegates)

[Josh/Devilman88]

As they move on to NV, Richard Burr picks up speed in the new polling. Mitt Romney goes on the attack saying that Richard Burr doesn't have what it takes to face Pres. Obama.

Monday Polling before NV:

Rasy Polling:

NV:
Romney: 45%
Burr: 43%
Paul: 10%
Unsure: 2%

SC:
Burr: 59%
Romney: 38%
Unsure: 3%

Poll for state primary held on Feb 15th:

Romney: 48%
Burr: 43%
Paul: 5%
Unsure: 4%

------------
Head to Head

Obama: 54%
Romney: 44%

Obama: 50%
Burr: 46%

Obama: 60%
Paul: 32%

[Senator Ben]

I'm liking this.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Nevada Primary Results

Primary Winner: Mitt Romney



Results:
Mitt Romney: 42% (14 delegates)
Richard Burr: 39% (13 delegates)
Ron Paul: 19% (6 delegates)
----------

Once again Ron Paul does better then in the polling. Exit polling shows that Richard Burr and Mitty Romney split indy, but Ron Paul picked up most of the youth vote.


Results Map:



Green: Mitt Romney (38 delegates)
Blue: Richard Burr (38 delegates)
Red: Ron Paul (9 delegates)

[Josh/Devilman88]

That wednesday after NV primary, Richard Burr held a rally in SC where he got the endorsement from the Frm. Gov Mark Sanford and current Gov.André Bauer. And new polling showing Richard Burr picking up more speed.

Wednesday Rasy Poll(Day before SC)

SC:
Richard Burr: 62%
Mitt Romeny: 35%
Unsure: 3%

States primary held on Feb 15th:

Richard Burr: 44%
Mitt Romney: 43%
Ron Paul: 6%
Unsure: 7%

-----------

Do you approve of President Obama?

Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 48%
Unsure: 4%


Richard Burr: 46%
Barack Obama: 46%
Unsure: 8%

Barack Obama: 48%
Mitt Romney: 43%
Unsure: 9%

Barack Obama: 58%
Ron Paul: 35%
Unsure: 7%

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I doubt that Burr would lose IA against Romney, but otherwise the map is currently right.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I doubt that Burr would lose IA against Romney, but otherwise the map is currently right.

He only lost by 1%

[Ronnie]

Josh, it's obvious that your process will end with Obama winning the election and respectively North Carolina.

I'm just kidding, but you should make this thing a little bit less predictable, Josh.

I have to commend you for making this very reasonable, though.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Josh, it's obvious that your process will end with Obama winning the election and respectively North Carolina.

I'm just kidding, but you should make this thing a little bit less predictable, Josh.

I have to commend you for making this very reasonable, though.

Well, I'm not to good at timelines, writing them out. But I'm trying.

[Josh/Devilman88]

South Carolina Primary Results

Winner: Richard Burr



Results:
Richard Burr: 58% (14 delegates)
Mitt Romney: 40% (10 delegates)
Ron Paul: 2% ( 0 delegates)
---------------

The SC primary went just like the poll were showing, a landslide win for Sen. Burr. Mitt Romney did get to 40%. With this SC win Burr moved ahed in the Delegates by 4. The next stop would be a debate between Burr, Romney and yes Paul.  Sunday Feb 12th in Portland, ME.


Results Map:



Green: Mitt Romney (48 delegates)
Blue: Richard Burr (52 delegates)
Red: Ron Paul (9 delegates)

[Josh/Devilman88]

The day of the debate in Portland, ME, Romney and Burr both held rallies in Maine, but the main news of the day wasn't about the Debate, but about the new state polls SUSA put out. The new polls showed a very good night for Mitt Romney, which is odd because Rasy showed it with a small Burr lead. So, both Romney and Burr told their supports to not look at the polls and just get out and vote.

That night at the debate, it was a bloody battle. Mitt Romney went on the attack, saying we need a moderate in office not someone who is a right wing hack. Burr on the other hand, told the public that he would be reach across party lines and fix the problems that America is facing, a new Era Ronold Reagan.  After the debate was over, most where saying Burr won, and Romney acted like a scare kid picking on the other smaller kids. One thing for sure, Feb 15(tomorrow) would be an big night for Sen. Burr. If he gets killed in them primaries many say he would drop out, so Burr has to come in a close 2nd to hope to say in the race.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Feb 15th Primaries Results


Richard Burr wins: NM, MT, ND, SD, NE, WV and ME


Mitt Romney wins: HI, ID, WY, DE, RI, VT, AK and DC
-------------

State by State Results:

HI:
Romney: 58% (12 delegates)
Burr: 40% (8 delegates)
Paul: 2% (0 delegates)

NM:
Burr: 45% (14 delegates)
Romney: 42% (13 delegates)
Paul: 13% (4 delegates)

ID:
Romney: 68% (22 delegates)
Burr: 22% (7 delegates)
Paul: 10% (3 delegates)

MT:
Burr: 39% (10 delegates)
Romeny: 37% (9 delegates)
Paul: 24% (6 delegates)

WY:
Romney: 81% (23 delegates)
Burr: 14% (4 delegates)
Paul: 5% (1 delegate)

ND:
Burr: 54% (14 delegates)
Romney: 41% (11 delegates)
Paul: 5% (1 delegates)

DE:
Romney: 52% (9 delegates)
Burr: 46% (8 delegates)
Paul: 2% (0 delegates)

SD:
Burr: 49% (13 delegates)
Romney: 41% (11 delegates)
Paul: 10% (3 delegates)

RI:
Romney: 72% (14 delegates)
Burr: 24% (5 delegates)
Paul: 4% (1 delegate)

NE:
Burr: 68% (22 delegates)
Romney: 29% (10 delegates)
Paul: 3% (1 delegates)

VT:
Romney: 48% (8 delegates)
Burr: 39% (7 delegates)
Paul: 13% (2 delegates)

WV:
Burr: 84% (25 delegates)
Romney: 15% (5 delegates)
Paul: 1% (0 delegates)

AK:
Romney: 38% (11 delegates)
Burr: 31% (9 delegates)
Paul: 31% (9 delegates)

ME:
Burr: 47% (10 delegates)
Romney: 42% (9 delegates)
Paul: 11% (2 delegates)

DC:
Romney: 91% (17 delegates)
Paul: 6% (1 delegate)
Burr: 3% (1 delegate)

[Josh/Devilman88]

Results Map:



Green: Mitt Romney (232 delegates)
Blue: Richard Burr (209 delegates)
Red: Ron Paul (43 delegates)


Romney moved back ahead of Burr in the delegate race by 23 delegates. The day after the Feb 15 primary were held Burr held a rally and stated he wouldn't drop out of the race and he is in it to win it.  New polling will come out seeing how the March 1st primary states split up and head to head matches.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Between Feb 16th and Feb 20th, both Burr and Romney held rallies in the states that had up and coming primaries. While Pres. Obama becomes more unpopular for not being able to fix the economy as fast as many wanted. Rasy came out with the new polling on Feb 20th, which showed a change in the National numbers.

Rasy Feb 20th poll

Primary Poll

CA:
Romney: 48%
Burr: 46%
Paul: 2%
Unsure: 4%

AZ:
Burr: 50%
Romney: 45%
Paul: 1%
Unsure: 4%

IN:
Burr: 52%
Romney: 42%
Paul: 2%
Unsure: 4%

TN:
Burr: 58%
Romney: 39%
Paul: 1%
Unsure: 2%

NC:
Burr: 79%
Romney: 15%
Paul: 2%
Unsure: 4%

VA:
Burr: 53%
Romney: 42%
Paul: 1%
Unsure: 4%

NJ:
Romney: 50%
Burr: 42%
Paul: 5%
Unsure: 3%

CT:
Romney: 48%
Burr: 42%
Paul: 5%
Unsure: 5%

MA:
Romney: 70%
Burr: 21%
Paul: 4%
Unsure: 5%

-----------

Do you approve or disapprove of Pres. Obama?

Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 48%
Unsure: 7%

Head to Head match up

Obama: 48%
Romney: 42%

Obama: 47%
Burr: 48%

Obama: 58%
Paul: 35%

[Josh/Devilman88]

The week before the March 1st Primaries both Romney and Burr where on top of there game. Romney still attacking Burr making Burr out to be the right wing hack. Burr now laugh at the idea of him being a right wing hack, tell his supports at a rally in LA, that Romney doesn't know what he is. Saying Romney is the republican version of Sen. John Kerry. With Romney having the same lead in delegates, Burr need to come in a very close 2nd in CA, so Burr spent most of last days in CA and AZ. Romney on the other hand made stops in every state, but TN and NC calling them states a lost cause.

[Josh/Devilman88]

March 1st Primary Results


Mitt Romney wins: NJ, MA and CA


Richard Burr wins: IN, AZ, NC, TN, VA and CT.

--------------

Results by state:

CA:
Romney: 48% (83 delegates)
Burr: 47% (81 delegates)
Paul: 5% (9 delegates)

AZ:
Burr: 51% (27 delegates)
Romney: 45% (24 delegates)
Paul: 4% (2 delegates)

IN:
Burr: 59% (34 delegates)
Romney: 38% (22 delegates)
Paul: 3% (2 delegates)

TN:
Burr: 66% (36 delegates)
Romney: 32% (18 delegates)
Paul: 2% (1 delegate)

NC:
Burr: 87% (60 delegates)
Romney: 10% (7 delegates)
Paul: 3% (2 delegates)

VA:
Burr: 55% (35 delegates)
Romney: 43% (27 delegates)
Paul: 2% (1 delegate)

NJ:
Romney: 52% (27 delegates)
Burr: 46% (24 delegates)
Paul: 2% (1 delegate)

CT:
Burr: 47% (14 delegates)
Romney: 46% (14 delegates)
Paul: 7% (2 delegates)

MA:
Romney: 79% (34 delegates)
Burr: 15% (6 delegates)
Paul: 6% (3 delegates)

Results Map:



Green: Mitt Romney (488 delegates)
Blue: Richard Burr (526 delegates)
Red: Ron Paul (66 delegates)
-------

March 1st Primaries was a big night for Richard Burr. That night he regain the delegate lead by 38 delegates. At Romney rally that night he said he will stay in the race until March 22nd Primaries. That night if everything goes Burr's way he could cross the delegates line.