NH-PPP: Hodes, Shea-Porter (D) in a tight race with Sununu, Bass (R)

[Tender Branson]

Hodes (D): 46%
Sununu (R): 44%

Hodes (D): 40%
Bass (R): 37%

Sununu (R): 46%
Shea-Porter (D): 45%

Bass (R): 43%
Shea-Porter (D): 42%

PPP surveyed 1,326 New Hampshire voters from February 6th to 8th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_211.pdf

[Aizen]

go paul hodes. time to pluck the last republican seat up there.

[Keystone Phil]

Looks like Sununu is stronger than most here wanted to believe. I just hope he ends up running.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Shea-Porter is also surprisingly strong.
Say whatever you want, this woman is pretty resilient.

[Nixon in '80]

Looks like Sununu is stronger than most here wanted to believe. I just hope he ends up running.

He'll be back, methinks.

[Lunar]

Looks like Sununu is stronger than most here wanted to believe. I just hope he ends up running.

High name recognition is probably the #1 factor in polls two years out.

[Gravis Marketing]

Fascinating results. Would it be appropriate to conclude from this that Sununu and Shea-Porter are polarizing candidates, and Hodes and Bass are not?

[Senator X]

Fascinating results. Would it be appropriate to conclude from this that Sununu and Shea-Porter are polarizing candidates, and Hodes and Bass are not?

Yes (although Sununu is far less polarizing then Shea-Porter)

[Gravis Marketing]

Fascinating results. Would it be appropriate to conclude from this that Sununu and Shea-Porter are polarizing candidates, and Hodes and Bass are not?

Yes (although Sununu is far less polarizing then Shea-Porter)

I think the Hodes-Sununu numbers vs. Hodes-Bass numbers are interesting. Sununu firms up 7 points while Hodes gains 6 points. An equal number of undecideds choose to vote for Sununu as against him. I'm assuming Bass isn't doing much better than a generic Republican and isn't particularly remembered as a moderate.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Much closer then I would have expected.

A few questions to anyone who might now
Why did Bass lose in 2006? Was it just the wave and the the seat being Dem or was there any controversy. I know Bass joined with Flake back in early 2006 to try and oust the House GOP Leadership which first brought him to my attention and gained him a lot of brownie points from me.

IF both Shea-Porter and Hodes run for Senate what are the House seats going to look like open. I know that there is a former State Rep the might run in NH-02 but I can't remember his name. I would think NH-02 would be likely Dem and NH-01 toss-up(maybe with a slight tilt Dem).

[Gravis Marketing]

IF both Shea-Porter and Hodes run for Senate what are the House seats going to look like open. I know that there is a former State Rep the might run in NH-02 but I can't remember his name.

Approximately .3% of the residents of NH-2 are former state reps.

[Rococo4]

Interesting.....

[© Tweed the Younger]

if Sununu were to run again and to win, would he regain any of his seniority?  or just be treated like a rookie?

[Lunar]

if Sununu were to run again and to win, would he regain any of his seniority?  or just be treated like a rookie?

It depends on whether Reid is a jackass, if I remember properly.  But he probably would regain it.

I know New Hampshire is a small state, and these are encouraging numbers for Sununu (especially since most of the state just rejected him), but this is essentially a battle between that Republican I'm lukewarm for but know a lot about, versus that Congressman I don't really know that much about.  I mean, Hodes hasn't been around that long and congressional races are a lot lower profile. 

[© Tweed the Younger]

what happened to Lautenberg?

[TheresNoMoney]

I am skeptical that Sununu will choose to run again. I think he will stay out of office for awhile and make money lobbying instead. I also think Bass is more likely to run for Governor than Senator.

I really hope that Hodes and Shea-Porter don;t go against each other in the primary, I think they're both great and would have a hard time deciding. And Shea-Porter is absolutely the most progressive congressman who could ever get elected in NH-01 (a moderate district). I hope Shea-Porter stays in Congress for a long, long time.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I am skeptical that Sununu will choose to run again. I think he will stay out of office for awhile and make money lobbying instead. I also think Bass is more likely to run for Governor than Senator.

I really hope that Hodes and Shea-Porter don;t go against each other in the primary, I think they're both great and would have a hard time deciding. And Shea-Porter is absolutely the most progressive congressman who could ever get elected in NH-01 (a moderate district). I hope Shea-Porter stays in Congress for a long, long time.

I am sure you are right about Bass. He is waiting for Lynch to say Adios. As for Shea-Porter we will have to see how she does against a non-retread in a Marginal or GOP year. Even though the GOP has been losing ground they have s surpisingly large bench especially in the 1st district. A testement to the smallness of the state. Same reason the GOP has a bench in CT-04 and CT-05 because its the least Dem and thus has a lot of GOP States Sens and Reps. The question remains is there another Gregg, Bass or Sununu out there or is it just a bunch of has beens and wantabees. Of course you would know better then I would.

[Downwinder]

Why in the world would Sununu be given back his seniority, when Lautenberg was not?

[TheresNoMoney]

Even though the GOP has been losing ground they have s surpisingly large bench especially in the 1st district.

They do? The GOP bench in NH is very thin. The only up-and-coming Republican in the state is probably Frank Guinta (mayor of Manchester). And he is really only moderately popular, he might even be defeated in the 2009 election.

Truth is that neither party has a very strong bench in this state, since Governor and Senator are the only two statewide elected offices in NH.

[Lunar]

From my readings on the subject, and I'm fall from an expert, I really get the impression that Sununu is interested but not that interested.  He's got a job in DC and being in the severe minority isn't that fun.  He's got his fam in DC and is signaling he may not want to get involved in another 1.5 year campaign away from them.

Why in the world would Sununu be given back his seniority, when Lautenberg was not?

Harry Reid.

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

A few questions to anyone who might now
Why did Bass lose in 2006? Was it just the wave and the the seat being Dem or was there any controversy. I know Bass joined with Flake back in early 2006 to try and oust the House GOP Leadership which first brought him to my attention and gained him a lot of brownie points from me.

     It was implied that straight-ticket voting were part of the reason that Bass & Bradley were knocked off.

[Holmes]

lol Sununu.

Hodes beat Bass before, it should be easier and funner this time.

[Rococo4]

yeah, and Sununu beat Shaheen the first time. 

cycles vary.

[Holmes]

Leave it to the NHGOP...

[Rococo4]

He would have won anyways due to the cycle.  Just like there was pretty much nothing he could do in 2008.