British General Election

[Phony Moderate]

There's going to be an election here most likely this summer or next summer. Who do you guys think will win? The Tories have a big lead in the polls right now, and i can't see them losing to be honest. Labour will hold on to maybe 250 seats if they are lucky, and the Lib Dems (who i support the most out of the three main parties) will hold on to about 50 seats. The Tories will get about 350 seats. Also, the BNP (British National (Nazi) Party) look as though they could do well, and they could win a seat or two (i hope not though).

[afleitch]

Conservative majority. How big is up to the public and how they react to events.

I'd currently hold out for a Tory majority of 50-70.

[Jacobtm]

Will Labour really get somewhere below 33%, becuase it seems that if they don't, and Lib-dems get anywhere around 15%, that it'll be pretty hard for Conservatives to get a huge majority...

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Conservative Majority of 10-90, I really can't tell how tired people are of Labour, but I personally think it's worse than the polls are suggesting.

[Verily]

Will Labour really get somewhere below 33%, becuase it seems that if they don't, and Lib-dems get anywhere around 15%, that it'll be pretty hard for Conservatives to get a huge majority...

Right now, my guess of election day percentages would be 40-28-20. So, yes, it is very possible for Labour to fall below 33%. (In fact, if Labour actually got 33%, it wouldn't even be certain that the Conservatives would a majority at all, or even largest party status, unless the Lib Dems had really collapsed to 15%, which has never looked likely.)

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Torie Majority.

I really wouldn't be surprised if Labour's vote falls to lows not seen since 1983.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

BTW, are there any swingometers already in place for the next general election, and if so, could I have a link please?

[Verily]

BTW, are there any swingometers already in place for the next general election, and if so, could I have a link please?

Electoral Calculus (on the left)
UK Polling Report

They have slightly different formulae. Generally I prefer UK Polling Report's method, although the ability to add in a tactical vote on Electoral Calculus is nice. (My current typical tactical point guess is two points LD -> Con [or -2 LD -> Lab], two points Con -> LD, one point Lab -> LD.)

[Harry Hayfield]

There's also the Telegraph's swingometer in their politics section, but I'd like to know if there's anyone who is moderately aufait with all the internet technology these days who could do a really fancy BBC type swngometer