Rasmussen Says Specter May Have Made a Mistake

[Lunar]

rasmussenreports link

Senator Arlen Specter is one of only three Republicans to support the economic stimulus bill in Congress, and the latest Rasmussen Reports survey in Pennsylvania shows that his position is costing him support back home.

Just 31% of Keystone State voters say are more likely to vote for Specter because of his position on the stimulus package while 40% are less likely to do so.

A look inside the numbers shows the problem for Specter may be even more significant. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Republican voters in the state are less likely to vote for Specter. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, just 27% are more likely to support the long-time incumbent while 48% are less likely to do so.

These numbers are not surprising given the partisan response to the stimulus bill itself. Nationwide, support for the stimulus legislation increased following President Obama’s nationally televised press conference earlier this week. Still, the legislation is perceived as being what Democrats want rather than a bipartisan product.

In Pennsylvania, 69% of Republicans oppose the package while 73% of Democrats favor it. Those not affiliated with either major party are evenly divided. That partisan divide places Specter in a difficult position. Even though Specter has aligned himself with the president and other Democrats on the stimulus, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has announced that the Pennsylvania Republican is one of their top targets for the 2010 election cycle.

Specter won re-election in 2004 by a 53% to 42% margin. However, he barely survived a conservative primary challenge from then-Congressman Pat Toomey. Even though he had the support of the state’s Republican establishment, Specter was able to defeat Toomey only by two points, 51% to 49%.

Overall, Pennsylvania voters support the stimulus measure by a 47% to 41% margin. Still, 52% say the legislation is at least somewhat likely to make things worse instead of better.

In December, Rasmussen Reports polling showed Specter in a tight re-election match-up against MSNBC television anchor Chris Matthews. Matthews has since indicated that he will not run for the seat.

In that December survey, 60% of Pennsylvania voters had a favorable opinion of Specter, including 20% Very Favorable. Specter was viewed unfavorably by 37% percent, including 13% who had a Very Unfavorable opinion.

[Landslide Lyndon]

We will be able to say whether he made mistake or not after a year.

If the economy is still tanking then he will take the heat for his vote.

But if the situation starts to improve, then his vote for the stimulus could become his ticket for reelection, and an easy one to boot.   

[Keystone Phil]

I don't want to jinx it just yet because Specter has a habit of surviving but...

Adios, Arlen!

[Franzl]

I certainly hope Specter survives.

[Lunar]

We will be able to say whether he made mistake or not after a year.

If the economy is still tanking then he will take the heat for his vote.

But if the situation starts to improve, then his vote for the stimulus could become his ticket for reelection, and an easy one to boot.   

There is no easy way to say  “it worked” or not.  I imagine most Republicans will still oppose the bill retroactively even if five million jobs are saved/created.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Rasmussen: providing talking points for the right-wing for a year and counting.

[Lunar]

Rasmussen: providing talking points for the right-wing for a year and counting.

His poll historically has been among the best.  You don’t like accurate statistical polling?

[Eraserhead]

I don't want to jinx it just yet because Specter has a habit of surviving but...

Adios, Arlen!

Who's coming to beat him?

[TheresNoMoney]

I don't want to jinx it just yet because Specter has a habit of surviving but...

Adios, Arlen!

Phil, do you really think a far-right Pat Toomey-type is going to win statewide in PA? Would you rather have the Democrats win another seat than have Specter as your candidate?

The funniest thing is that Arlen Specter has actually move quite a bit to the right over the past 10 or 15 years. He is no liberal.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Rasmussen: providing talking points for the right-wing for a year and counting.

His poll historically has been among the best. 

Not so much in the last election cycle.
And Nate Silver has repeatedly said that Rassmusen tilts Republican.

[TeePee4Prez]

I don't want to jinx it just yet because Specter has a habit of surviving but...

Adios, Arlen!

Phil, do you really think a far-right Pat Toomey-type is going to win statewide in PA? Would you rather have the Democrats win another seat than have Specter as your candidate?

The funniest thing is that Arlen Specter has actually move quite a bit to the right over the past 10 or 15 years. He is no liberal.

See my sig.  I don't understand it either.  But... OK.  Whatever works... Kratovil, Schauer...  I'm sure there will be more.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't want to jinx it just yet because Specter has a habit of surviving but...

Adios, Arlen!

Phil, do you really think a far-right Pat Toomey-type is going to win statewide in PA? Would you rather have the Democrats win another seat than have Specter as your candidate?

The funniest thing is that Arlen Specter has actually move quite a bit to the right over the past 10 or 15 years. He is no liberal.

See my sig.  I don't understand it either.  But... OK.  Whatever works... Kratovil, Schauer...  I'm sure there will be more.

Oh, I know, guys. It's always going to work out that way. Just like when Republicans said you guys had to move considerably to the right to ever have a chance in this country again. Remember how that worked out?

I'm done seriously responding to the same old rhetoric from the same old posters. I love it how Scoonie and Smash (along with their OCD buddy BRTD) asked the same question time and time again when they know we simply won't see eye to eye.

I don't want to jinx it just yet because Specter has a habit of surviving but...

Adios, Arlen!

Who's coming to beat him?

Not exactly sure yet. See the other thread. At this point, Specter is vulnerable to even second and possibly third tier candidates.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Can Democrats vote in the GOP primary?  I can't remember in PA.

[Lunar]

Indies can't even vote in primaries in PA.  That's why the recent registration shift could hurt Specter's challenges.

They'd have to change their registration, which probably won't be done in noticeable numbers

[Keystone Phil]

Can Democrats vote in the GOP primary?  I can't remember in PA.

No, we have a normal system. Independents rightfully can't vote in our primaries either.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I have to agree with Phil.  Specter is indeed done.  Even if he wins the primary (doubtful), he will still lose to a Democrat.

[Keystone Phil]

he will still lose to a Democrat.

Well, I don't know about that but Specter's Forum Fan Club needs to realize that the man is older and not in great health. Every six years, he's able to do less campaigning than the time before. People need to also get over this silly idea that Specter is some adored force here. When he gets tough challenges/when third party candidates take away the conservative vote, he's stuck around 50%.

Now if Obama is enjoying great ratings in 2010, yeah, even Specter is going to serious struggle. If Josh Shapiro (a very young but very liberal rising star State Representative from Montco) is the nominee, he would out run Specter around this state like you wouldn't believe. Shapiro is a campaigner unlike any other (he used to be Hoeffel's chief of staff, by the way, so he's used to political battles). He's a fundraising machine. Now turnout would favor the GOP in a midterm election but if some third party candidate came along and/or Republicans just don't care to rally behind Specter (which is likely going to be the case), Shapiro could be very dangerous. He's totally out of touch with the state as a whole but if things line up for him, we could have a real problem.

If things are still good for Obama and Wagner is the Dem nominee then, yeah, Specter is most likely done. I would be for Wagner, too.

[Eraserhead]

I want to at least see the competition (from both sides) before counting him out.

[Lunar]

I have to agree with Phil.  Specter is indeed done.  Even if he wins the primary (doubtful), he will still lose to a Democrat.

If people who had a stake in the system believed that (some of the most informed people), then a top tier Democratic candidate with something to lose, like Schwartz, would have declared by now.

[Keystone Phil]

I have to agree with Phil.  Specter is indeed done.  Even if he wins the primary (doubtful), he will still lose to a Democrat.

If people who had a stake in the system believed that (some of the most informed people), then a top tier Democratic candidate with something to lose, like Schwartz, would have declared by now.

Many of us have been puzzled by Schwartz's reluctance. A Schwartz for Senate 2010 campaign seemed like the safest bet around here for years. However, Specter can still be seen as a goner (in the primary and even in the General) and top tier candidates might still stay away. Schwartz has a good thing going with her House seat. Imagine if she was to leave it to run for the Democratic nomination and lose (which is certainly possible with the number of SE PA candidates running and Wagner possibly jumping in to gobble up the moderate to conservative Dems/western and central PA vote).

[Lunar]

Perhaps Tom Allen's status as a top tier challenger and subsequent utter failure served as a bit of a warnin'.  I mean, to imagine back then that Dole would solidly lose in a wave but that Collins, the more conservative of the Maine twins, would clear it with plenty of room to spare...

My point was simply that if it was 100% obvious that Specter would lose in either the primary or the general, I think we'd see someone more credible emerging.  I mean, we'll see someone more credible emerge eventually, but if it was obvious as Tweed implies...

I mean, Joe Torsella just doesn't have anything to lose by declaring before the fog clears.  Although he may be slightly more credible that he seems since he's a Rendell ally, but I'll defer to PA people on his credibility since I don't follow the scene like I do NY or IL.

I'll def be following Specter's health in the next two years and will be interested to see how it plays out.  As Phil said, even if it doesn't retire, it could affect his campaign skillz.  I imagine that if he did retire, it'd almost be the same as someone primarying him in that there'll be a movement to get a solid conservative who will be there on the votes.

The Fix, last Friday, has Pennsylvania as the 8th most likely state to switch parties in 2010, which I almost agree with, but I'd it put it behind Nevada but ahead Louisiana and Illinois.

[Keystone Phil]

I mean, we'll see someone more credible emerge eventually, but if it was obvious as Tweed implies...

Well, first of all, that wasn't Tweed. 

But, yeah, I understand what you're saying but please realize that even if Specter was very likely finished, there are still reasons to stay away.

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Torsella is a very interesting candidate. As was mentioned, he barely lost to Schwartz in 2004 but that was a race he was supposed to win. He's been somewhat of a force on the local scene but he doesn't have much of a base. If it's Schwartz vs. Torsella vs. Shapiro, Torsella will likely be the Philly machine candidate (but, as I have learned in this city, the insane number of factions and petty feuds that start up within the blink of an eye may change that). He also appeals to Dems in my area (the more populist types though he really isn't a populist) which would get him strong support in NE Philly, South Philly (the Italian thing would be huge down there, too. I'd love to see the results afterwards) and lower Bucks.

If it's just those three, Torsella also runs well out west, in NE PA and in the center of the state. His problem is that that's not where these primaries are won. He'd need insane numbers out of NE Philly and South Philly to compete with Schwartz (who will also have pull in NE Philly especially the Jewish areas and the more progressive areas of the city) and Shapiro (who will basically split Montco and others of the SE with Schwartz).

What Torsella would need to hope for is Schwartz and Shapiro splitting the vote to a great enough extent. There's a chance that they split the same base and still beat Torsella's numbers elsewhere. We'll have to see though. Torsella also really needs to hope that Wagner stays out. It also needs to be mentioned that Torsella is from Flourtown in Montco - an affluent community not far from the city. He, too, will get support from areas that would traditionally go for a Schwartz or Shapiro type candidate.

 

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Just a reminder: the chances of Specter retiring are literally below 0.5%. 

[HappyWarrior]

I'm thinking Specter loses the primary to a righty due to the registrations of former Republicans as Democrats and Independents this past years and a net-zero return to the Republicans, probably making the state party more conservative overall.  I think that in the ensuing general the Republican will most likely be beaten by a moderate Democrat. :-D  And yes those are high hopes lol

[Keystone Phil]

I think that in the ensuing general the Republican will most likely be beaten by a moderate Democrat. :-D  And yes those are high hopes lol

Nominate Wagner and even in a good year for the GOP, I'll likely give the race to the Dems against a conservative or even against Specter. That being said, Wagner keeps saying he's leaning more towards the Gubernatorial race.

[Lunar]

Of course, it'd require a real health issue greater or equal to Ted's for him to retire.  Specter is part of the Byrd-Kennedy-Bunning-Johnson-etc. establishment that wants to be in the Senate until death do us part.

Thanks for the Torsella analysis.  I'd be surprised if three or more credible candidates emerged in the primary though, it is an off-year election and some of these cats do have their futures on the line should they lose. I think Torsella's candidacy not only depends on who his opponents are but additionally when they emerge.  As of now Torsella is out there fundraising and of course that's a big assistance.  But, you can see that the most credible candidates in a number of states (Rubio & Mack in Florida, anyone-besides-that-dude-Mongiardo-who-lives-in-his-in-laws'-basement, challengers in Nevada and North Carolina) have yet to declare, so it's still open season and whatnot.  But for states that are almost sure things, as that green NY avatar implies  PA is, someone would have declared by now just like Hodes or Carnahan have done.



And all of those green New York avatars are confusing.  It's why I switched my avatar to Ireland, I couldn't tell my own posts apart from Jfern's and Xahar's (and not just because I'm soooo socialist).