ND-R2k/Kos - Dorgan strong against Hoeven

[Lunar]

             Favorable  Unfavorable  No Opinion
Dorgan (D)      67         30          3
Hoeven (R)      68         27          5



Dorgan (D) 57
Hoeven (R) 35

http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/2/13/05945/6966/749/696931

[Keystone Phil]

Ha, wow. I guess we need another 1994 to have this one be a real toss up.

[I left.]

Especially amazing considering Hoeven is....what....enjoying like a 75% approval rating?

[Keystone Phil]

Especially amazing considering Hoeven is....what....enjoying like a 75% approval rating?

...and has a slightly higher favorable/lower unfavorable rating compared to Dorgan!

[© Tweed the Younger]

I guess the bro has never run for a reason.

[Lief]

This is pretty shocking, though I guess it makes some sense. Small states like ND really like having Senate seniority (except when that seniority is Senate Minority Leader, apparently ).

[muon2]

This is pretty shocking, though I guess it makes some sense. Small states like ND really like having Senate seniority (except when that seniority is Senate Minority Leader, apparently ).

Leadership can be a mixed blessing. A leader has to take positions on behalf of the national party, and that can put them at odds with local wishes. Leaders also spend a lot more time in other states/districts helping fellow members and that costs time that could be spent at home.

[Lief]

This is pretty shocking, though I guess it makes some sense. Small states like ND really like having Senate seniority (except when that seniority is Senate Minority Leader, apparently ).

Leadership can be a mixed blessing. A leader has to take positions on behalf of the national party, and that can put them at odds with local wishes. Leaders also spend a lot more time in other states/districts helping fellow members and that costs time that could be spent at home.

Yes, that's true. Also, Senate leaders spend more time promising other Senators pork, rather than bringing it home for their own.

[JSojourner]

Especially amazing considering Hoeven is....what....enjoying like a 75% approval rating?

I think Hoeven is likely to take this seat.  I hope not.  But he'll be exceptionally strong and North Dakota Democrats have been tempting fate for far too long.  I do think Hoeven would have a much better chance at Conrad's seat.  But Dorgan would be a fool to consider himself safe.

[Lunar]

Especially amazing considering Hoeven is....what....enjoying like a 75% approval rating?

I think Hoeven is likely to take this seat.  I hope not.  But he'll be exceptionally strong and North Dakota Democrats have been tempting fate for far too long.  I do think Hoeven would have a much better chance at Conrad's seat.  But Dorgan would be a fool to consider himself safe.

I don't think Hoeven has shown any interest in going to DC in 2010.

[TheresNoMoney]

Dorgan is a strong economic populist and advocate for the little guy. People in ND know that he advocates for their best economic interests.

[JSojourner]

Especially amazing considering Hoeven is....what....enjoying like a 75% approval rating?

I think Hoeven is likely to take this seat.  I hope not.  But he'll be exceptionally strong and North Dakota Democrats have been tempting fate for far too long.  I do think Hoeven would have a much better chance at Conrad's seat.  But Dorgan would be a fool to consider himself safe.

I don't think Hoeven has shown any interest in going to DC in 2010.

I hope you're right.  If true, that would be Hoeven-ly news.  <cough>

[So the Heroes Fall]

Hoeven is not a DC-type guy. I've had more experience with him than anyone else here, he spoke at my high school, my mom actually once worked with him before he became Governor, and the guy has shown no interest in any office beyond ND Governor at all.

And yes, he has around an 80% approval rating...as Governor. That's part of the deal. NoDaks are happy with him as Governor and with Dorgan as Senator based on both of their ratings. So they want to keep the status quo.

[Lunar]

Especially amazing considering Hoeven is....what....enjoying like a 75% approval rating?

I think Hoeven is likely to take this seat.  I hope not.  But he'll be exceptionally strong and North Dakota Democrats have been tempting fate for far too long.  I do think Hoeven would have a much better chance at Conrad's seat.  But Dorgan would be a fool to consider himself safe.

I don't think Hoeven has shown any interest in going to DC in 2010.

I hope you're right.  If true, that would be Hoeven-ly news.  <cough>

JS, why do you think he wants the most competitive race of his career (as of now, he'd be fighting an uphill battle) so that he can be a severe minority in Congress?

[I left.]

Especially amazing considering Hoeven is....what....enjoying like a 75% approval rating?

I just realized that the actual approval rating, 68%....is given by the poll.

Somebody please hit me with a baseball bat.

[Aizen]

Especially amazing considering Hoeven is....what....enjoying like a 75% approval rating?

I think Hoeven is likely to take this seat.  I hope not.  But he'll be exceptionally strong and North Dakota Democrats have been tempting fate for far too long.  I do think Hoeven would have a much better chance at Conrad's seat.  But Dorgan would be a fool to consider himself safe.

what


hoeven loses by 22 points to dorgan. 22 points. hoeven would have trouble breaking 40% with numbers like that.

[Senator Ben]

Especially amazing considering Hoeven is....what....enjoying like a 75% approval rating?

I think Hoeven is likely to take this seat.  I hope not.  But he'll be exceptionally strong and North Dakota Democrats have been tempting fate for far too long.  I do think Hoeven would have a much better chance at Conrad's seat.  But Dorgan would be a fool to consider himself safe.

Dorgan is safe.  Hoeven is losing by 22 points, and probably won't run against him.  Hoeven is smart enough to realize that he's safe as Governor, and that it's a big risk to run against a long time, popular incumbent like Dorgan.

[JSojourner]

Especially amazing considering Hoeven is....what....enjoying like a 75% approval rating?

I think Hoeven is likely to take this seat.  I hope not.  But he'll be exceptionally strong and North Dakota Democrats have been tempting fate for far too long.  I do think Hoeven would have a much better chance at Conrad's seat.  But Dorgan would be a fool to consider himself safe.

I don't think Hoeven has shown any interest in going to DC in 2010.

I hope you're right.  If true, that would be Hoeven-ly news.  <cough>

JS, why do you think he wants the most competitive race of his career (as of now, he'd be fighting an uphill battle) so that he can be a severe minority in Congress?

I think North Dakota is substantially more conservative than their Democratic Senators would indicate.  I'm basing this on a lot of what I have read from Larry Sabato.  He often lists both Conrad AND Dorgan as perpetually in trouble.  Perhaps that will change given the closeness of the Presidential there.  But I am still not ready to call the state a D stronghold.  And Hoeven is immensely popular.

In Dorgan's favor, of course, is that he is a massive FF and a leader in the Senate, especially on energy issues that motivate ND voters.  I love the guy -- but remember, I am this forum's Democratic Eeyore.  I wasn't nominated for most cynical poster of the year for nothin!  LOL

[Lunar]

All you said in that last post was that Dorgan could potentially, possibly, in some scenario, be vulnerable sir.  The original post said that we're likely looking at Senator Hoeven in 2011

You make two giant leaps in logic (and didn't really answer my question):

1. Hoeven wants to run, and is willing to be away from his family, be part of a semi-powerless minority, risk political embarrassment by giving up a safe seat  for what now looks to be an uphill battle against the stronger of his state's two seantors - you didn't answer that part of my question.  I mean, it's more than possible, but it seems a pretty ridic working assumption

Hoeven hasn't given as firm of an indication as Douglas, Rell, or Lynch that he won't run, but he's certainly not looking like he wants to o to DC this next cycle.

(2. and Hoeven is likely to win should he run  - I guess that's your opinion and that's fine)

[So the Heroes Fall]

Especially amazing considering Hoeven is....what....enjoying like a 75% approval rating?

I think Hoeven is likely to take this seat.  I hope not.  But he'll be exceptionally strong and North Dakota Democrats have been tempting fate for far too long.  I do think Hoeven would have a much better chance at Conrad's seat.  But Dorgan would be a fool to consider himself safe.

I don't think Hoeven has shown any interest in going to DC in 2010.

I hope you're right.  If true, that would be Hoeven-ly news.  <cough>

JS, why do you think he wants the most competitive race of his career (as of now, he'd be fighting an uphill battle) so that he can be a severe minority in Congress?

I think North Dakota is substantially more conservative than their Democratic Senators would indicate.  I'm basing this on a lot of what I have read from Larry Sabato.  He often lists both Conrad AND Dorgan as perpetually in trouble.  Perhaps that will change given the closeness of the Presidential there.  But I am still not ready to call the state a D stronghold.  And Hoeven is immensely popular.

Sabato is often wrong over things like this.

Pop quiz: How many times has Conrad or Dorgan lost a county since 1992?
Answer: 8. There's 53 counties in 6 races, so that means 318 contests, of which 310 have been won. Do the math.

And ND isn't what you're thinking of there. The 2008 results are a much more accurate representation of the state than the 2004 or 2000 ones.

[hcallega]

Dorgan is perfect for ND. Economic populist, not too liberal socially. I was watching CSPAN a couple of weeks ago (the TARP vote) and Dorgan actually voted with the GOP to block the use of it. I wondered why, and realized that it could help for reelection as well as being populist (all this money being used to prop up the banks and what not.)

[I'm Not a Witch]

This would be an exciting race with two immensely popular politicians albeit in a state that leans red. It's worth pointing out that George W. Bush carried North Dakota by 27.36 points in 2004; John McCain only carried the state by 8.60 points. Despite these facts, I still think Dorgan is the favorite. I've read some previous posts on here about his populist streak and record of standing up for the little guy while in D.C. which I believe matches the state of North Dakota well. I just don't see why Hoeven would risk his safe position as Governor for a seat in the minority in the U.S. Senate where he will have virtually no power at all compared to what he has now as Governor. I'm sensing a little bit of 2012 creeping into his decision, here.. perhaps he is going to do what his fellow Governor Sarah "I Can See Russia From My House" Palin is widely speculated to do: run for the U.S. Senate to gain some national spotlight and attention in Washington before launching a presidential bid in 2012. Alas, I can't speak for him and don't know what his true intentions are; just saying that it's a longshot. He'd definitely give Dorgan a run for his money but Dorgan will win and that will be the end of Hoeven's career.

Also, I wouldn't look too much into this DailyKos poll. Two words: New Hampshire. And put that in perspective.. this time during the same election cycle showed Elizabeth Dole crushing Kay Hagan by 16 points in North Carolina.