What are your swing states predictions?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

November's definite Swing States (4= very confident, 1=if i had to guess)

New Hampshire - Kerry 2
Pennsylvania - Kerry 3
Ohio - Kerry 2
Michigan - Kerry 4
Wisconsin - Kerry 3
Iowa - Kerry 1
Missouri - Bush 3
Florida - Bush 4
West Virginia - Kerry 2
Arizona - Kerry 1
New Mexico - Kerry 2
Oregon - Kerry 2

I generally believe Kerry will win the most, but I have less confidence than I have Bush winning Missouri and Florida.  

[TomC]

I'd add Nevada and give it to Kerry with a 3.

I'd give Iowa to Bush with a 1.
I'd gove Fla to Bush but with a 1 or 2

Otherwise I agree

[classical liberal]

New Hampshire- Kerry 3
Pennsylvania- Kerry 3
Ohio- Kerry 2
Michigan- Kerry 4
Indiana- Bush 2
Virginia- Kerry 1
Colorado- Bush 1
Minnesota- Kerry 3
Wisconsin- Kerry 3
Iowa- Kerry 3
Missouri- Bush 1
Georgia- Bush 2
Florida- Bush 1
West Virginia- Kerry 2
Arizona- Kerry 2
New Mexico- Kerry 3
Nevada- Kerry 1
Oregon- Kerry 3

[© tweed]

November's definite Swing States (4= very confident, 1=if i had to guess)

New Hampshire - Kerry 2
Pennsylvania - Kerry 2
Ohio - Kerry 2
Michigan - Kerry 3
Wisconsin - Kerry 3
Iowa - Bush 1
Missouri - Bush 4
Florida - Bush 3
West Virginia - Kerry 1
Arizona - bush 3
New Mexico - Bush 2
Oregon - Kerry 2

[agcatter]

Some of these states will be close but Kerry is not going to carry Virginia.  Where did that come from?

[Nym90]

MiamiU, you always say that Bush will beat Kerry. If the states go as you predict, Kerry would almost certainly win.

[© tweed]

MiamiU, you always say that Bush will beat Kerry. If the states go as you predict, Kerry would almost certainly win.

Aagh, be quiet.

[WMS]

Same scale as everyone else, 4-most confident to 1-if you forced me to make a decision

New Hampshire - Kerry 2
Pennsylvania - Kerry 3
Ohio - Bush 1
Michigan - Kerry 3
Wisconsin - Kerry 2
Iowa - Kerry 1
Missouri - Bush 2
Florida - Bush 2
West Virginia - Kerry 1
Arizona - Bush 2
New Mexico - Kerry 3
Nevada - Kerry 1
Oregon - Kerry 3

It's going to be a looooooong night of counting votes...

[MarkDel]

New Hampshire- Bush 1
Pennsylvania- Kerry 2
Ohio- Bush 4
Michigan- Kerry 1
Wisconsin- Bush 1
Iowa- Bush 3
Missouri- Bush 4
Florida- Bush 4
West Virginia- Bush 1
Arizona- Bush 3
New Mexico- Bush 2
Nevada- Bush 3
Oregon- Kerry 1

[Nation]

New Hampshire - Kerry 3
Ohio - Kerry 1
Nevada - Bush 2
Florida - Bush 4
West Virginia - Kerry 1
Iowa - Bush 2
New Mexico - Kerry 1
Wisconsin - Bush 1
Minnesota - Kerry 2
Oregon - Kerry 1

[Platypus]

New Hampshire-Kerry-2
Pennsylvania-Kerry-3
Ohio-Bush-2
Michigan-Kerry-3
Wisconsin-Kerry-3
Minnesota-Kerry-1
Iowa-Bush-1
Missouri-Bush-4
Florida-Bush-3
West Virginia-Kerry-1
Arizona-Bush-3
New Mexico-Bush-3
Nevada-Bush-4
Oregon-Kerry-3
Tennessee-Bush-4

[opebo]

AZ - Bush 4
MO - Bush 4
FL - Bush 4
----------------------------------------------------------
OH - Bush 3
NM - Bush 3
NH - Bush 3
WV - Bush 1
IA - Kerry 1
MN - Kerry 3
WS - Kerry 3
PA - Kerry 3
OR - Kerry 3
-----------------------------------------------------------
MI - Kerry 4

4's are kind of outside the really interestingly close swing category.

[© tweed]

Ohio- Bush 4
Michigan- Kerry 1

I don't see that as being correct.

[elcorazon]

NH Kerry 4
NM Kerry 1
IA Kerry 2
FL  Bush 3
OH Bush 1
WV Kerry 1
WI Kerry 4
MN Kerry 4
PA Kerry 4
ME Kerry 4
NV Kerry 1
AZ Bush 2
CO Bush 3
OR Kerry 4
WA Kerry 4
TN Bush 4
MO Bush 3
AR Bush 4
VA Bush 4

[Dave from Michigan]

It's going to be close in Michigan