Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 29, 2014, 03:57:50 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
| | |-+  louisiana
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: louisiana  (Read 4622 times)
WalterMitty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20768


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

View Profile
« on: February 25, 2004, 07:11:41 pm »
Ignore

does kerry have a shot at carrying louisiana in november?
Logged


I am guaranteed $10.00/hr, but could make up to $16.00/hr.  That's not including all the sales games they have.  AT&T likes to throw money around.
agcatter
agcat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3751


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2004, 07:23:34 pm »
Ignore

about the same shot as Bush has of carrying Illinois.  In other words, when pigs fly.
Logged
WalterMitty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20768


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2004, 07:28:07 pm »
Ignore

louisiana is very different from other southern states in that it has a high catholic population.

Logged


I am guaranteed $10.00/hr, but could make up to $16.00/hr.  That's not including all the sales games they have.  AT&T likes to throw money around.
Ben.
Ben
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4219


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2004, 07:30:32 pm »
Ignore

 
If Breaux where is running mate maybe...but it would be unlikely Breaux's big asset would be appeal to moderate and rightward leaning independents (who Edwards would also appeal to but probably more so to the moderates than the rightward leaners) and Breaux on the ticket would pretty much assure the Dems of holding his old Senate seat while his presence might help across the south... and it might well help balance Kerry out... but I donít no if he's the best choice... but back to the question only if Breaux is Kerry's running mate and then its still more likely that Bush would win it...  
Logged

.Britainís Mayor.
dunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3080


P
View Profile
« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2004, 07:36:20 pm »
Ignore

Kerry does not but Edwards will. 3 time the dems took La since 1960 - Carter, Clinton (twice). and its the only democrats to win nationally in that time. A southern democrat, that what the dems need.
ie = Edwards
Logged

Keep your eyes on the stars, and your feet on the ground - TR
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3698


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: February 25, 2004, 07:39:40 pm »
Ignore

 
If Breaux where is running mate maybe...but it would be unlikely Breaux's big asset would be appeal to moderate and rightward leaning independents (who Edwards would also appeal to but probably more so to the moderates than the rightward leaners) and Breaux on the ticket would pretty much assure the Dems of holding his old Senate seat while his presence might help across the south... and it might well help balance Kerry out... but I donít no if he's the best choice... but back to the question only if Breaux is Kerry's running mate and then its still more likely that Bush would win it...  


Wouldn't Landrieu be a better running mate for carrying LA than Breaux?  Breaux is just another Washington insider who has been in the Senate forever.  

I think Kerry has a better chance in LA than any other Southern state...it is Catholic and had been trending Dem.  But I'm pretty much alone in that belief.
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3698


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

View Profile
« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2004, 07:41:03 pm »
Ignore

 
If Breaux where is running mate maybe...but it would be unlikely Breaux's big asset would be appeal to moderate and rightward leaning independents (who Edwards would also appeal to but probably more so to the moderates than the rightward leaners) and Breaux on the ticket would pretty much assure the Dems of holding his old Senate seat while his presence might help across the south... and it might well help balance Kerry out... but I donít no if he's the best choice... but back to the question only if Breaux is Kerry's running mate and then its still more likely that Bush would win it...  


Wouldn't Landrieu be a better running mate for carrying LA than Breaux?  Breaux is just another Washington insider who has been in the Senate forever.  

I think Kerry has a better chance in LA than any other Southern state...it is Catholic and had been trending Dem.  But I'm pretty much alone in that belief.


Actually, I'll correct myself.  Breaux would be better than Landrieu for the sole purpose of carrying Louisiana.  Landrieu would be better nationwide.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35399
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: February 25, 2004, 08:18:57 pm »
Ignore

Again, Kerry has very little chance of carrying Louisiana, but Edwards sprobably would win it.
Logged
dunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3080


P
View Profile
« Reply #8 on: February 25, 2004, 08:27:52 pm »
Ignore

Again, Kerry has very little chance of carrying Louisiana, but Edwards sprobably would win it.

just as I said
Logged

Keep your eyes on the stars, and your feet on the ground - TR
© tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35399
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: February 25, 2004, 08:31:05 pm »
Ignore

Again, Kerry has very little chance of carrying Louisiana, but Edwards sprobably would win it.

just as I said

I wish we would nominate Edwards Sad

THERE IS STILL TIME!!!  PLEASE!!!!
Logged
agcatter
agcat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3751


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: February 25, 2004, 09:15:07 pm »
Ignore

No Miami.  There is no more time.  (wink).  Nominate Kerry.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35399
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: February 25, 2004, 09:35:22 pm »
Ignore

No Miami.  There is no more time.  (wink).  Nominate Kerry.

hey buddy...I got a MArch 2nd Democratic Primary comin' up and I'm votin for yer worst nightmare!!!!
Logged
TheWildCard
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4563
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2004, 10:17:35 pm »
Ignore

Lousiana might be a toss-up state if Bush was less Conservitive and wasn't from Texas. But thats not the case. Or if Edwards ran on the ticket. Even then I think at the end of the day Louisiana will go to the Republicans.

Logged
WalterMitty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20768


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: February 25, 2004, 11:56:24 pm »
Ignore

landrieu is much too conservative to be placed on the ticket with kerry.

the liberal base of the democratic party would throw a fit if she were chosen
Logged


I am guaranteed $10.00/hr, but could make up to $16.00/hr.  That's not including all the sales games they have.  AT&T likes to throw money around.
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3698


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

View Profile
« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2004, 12:02:36 am »
Ignore

landrieu is much too conservative to be placed on the ticket with kerry.

the liberal base of the democratic party would throw a fit if she were chosen

Well, Breaux is more conservative than Landrieu by just about every measure. (National Journal ratings, ADA/ACU scores, etc.)

And the liberal base wants to beat Bush badly enough that they wouldn't "throw a fit" unless the VP nominee was fundamentally pro-life.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2004, 12:03:00 am by NickG »Logged
Sibboleth Bist
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56223
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #15 on: February 26, 2004, 05:49:28 am »
Ignore

Louisiana is certainly winnable for any Democrat (well... maybe not Dean...)

Something to note from the 2000 result is this: Gore did a LOT worse in the Cajun part of the state than is normal for a Democrat.
Logged

only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58783
India


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: February 26, 2004, 07:01:32 am »
Ignore

Louisiana is certainly winnable for any Democrat (well... maybe not Dean...)

Something to note from the 2000 result is this: Gore did a LOT worse in the Cajun part of the state than is normal for a Democrat.
I've once seen it put that La. actually has a three party system: There are Republicans, there are Democrats, and there are Cajuns. You need to carry two of these groups to win.
The Democrats have a chance of winning La, even with Kerry, but while larger than in the average Southern state it is still a very small chance. I have it as lean rep in my predictions.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
© tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35399
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #17 on: February 26, 2004, 08:03:36 am »
Ignore

Lousiana might be a toss-up state if Bush was less Conservitive and wasn't from Texas. But thats not the case. Or if Edwards ran on the ticket. Even then I think at the end of the day Louisiana will go to the Republicans.

I was saying Edwards coduld win it if he was at the top of the ticket.
Logged
Sibboleth Bist
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56223
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #18 on: February 26, 2004, 08:50:27 am »
Ignore

I have it as a lean-D (I think. I've not updated my map for a while).
Louisiana is a strange state... socially one of the most right wing states in America and economically one of the most left wing...

BTW the Cajun area actually voted for Dukakis in 1988.  Could someone explain why Gore did so badly there?
Logged

dunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3080


P
View Profile
« Reply #19 on: February 26, 2004, 12:01:36 pm »
Ignore

Does anyone know the racial percentages in this state?

the last census:
whites:67.3%
Blacks:30.8%
Asian: 1.0%
Native Americans: 0.4%
others:0.5%

in this 100% 2.2% are hispanic
Logged

Keep your eyes on the stars, and your feet on the ground - TR
opebo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47627


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: February 26, 2004, 12:40:10 pm »
Ignore

Does anyone know the racial percentages in this state?

The key number is 62.5% non-hispanic whites - basically your prime Republican voter.  This is a fairly low percentage - a little higher than Mississippi, a little lower than South Carolina.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/22000.html
Logged

The essence of democracy at its purest is a lynch mob

Sibboleth Bist
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56223
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #21 on: February 26, 2004, 12:48:47 pm »
Ignore

The only reliably GOP voters in Louisiana live in the 1st district.
Logged

Sibboleth Bist
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56223
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #22 on: February 26, 2004, 04:20:15 pm »
Ignore

There's a lot of "disguised unemployment" in Louisiana...
Logged

© tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35399
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #23 on: February 26, 2004, 04:22:06 pm »
Ignore

There's a lot of "disguised unemployment" in Louisiana...

But there's a helluva lot more in Western PA, Ohio, and WV.
Logged
Sibboleth Bist
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56223
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #24 on: February 26, 2004, 04:25:43 pm »
Ignore

It's bad in Louisiana... but it's horrific all over Appalachia Sad
Logged

Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines