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Author Topic: louisiana  (Read 4717 times)
WalterMitty
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« on: February 25, 2004, 07:11:41 pm »
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does kerry have a shot at carrying louisiana in november?
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« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2004, 07:23:34 pm »
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about the same shot as Bush has of carrying Illinois.  In other words, when pigs fly.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2004, 07:28:07 pm »
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louisiana is very different from other southern states in that it has a high catholic population.

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« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2004, 07:30:32 pm »
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If Breaux where is running mate maybe...but it would be unlikely Breaux's big asset would be appeal to moderate and rightward leaning independents (who Edwards would also appeal to but probably more so to the moderates than the rightward leaners) and Breaux on the ticket would pretty much assure the Dems of holding his old Senate seat while his presence might help across the south... and it might well help balance Kerry out... but I donít no if he's the best choice... but back to the question only if Breaux is Kerry's running mate and then its still more likely that Bush would win it...  
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« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2004, 07:36:20 pm »
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Kerry does not but Edwards will. 3 time the dems took La since 1960 - Carter, Clinton (twice). and its the only democrats to win nationally in that time. A southern democrat, that what the dems need.
ie = Edwards
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« Reply #5 on: February 25, 2004, 07:39:40 pm »
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If Breaux where is running mate maybe...but it would be unlikely Breaux's big asset would be appeal to moderate and rightward leaning independents (who Edwards would also appeal to but probably more so to the moderates than the rightward leaners) and Breaux on the ticket would pretty much assure the Dems of holding his old Senate seat while his presence might help across the south... and it might well help balance Kerry out... but I donít no if he's the best choice... but back to the question only if Breaux is Kerry's running mate and then its still more likely that Bush would win it...  


Wouldn't Landrieu be a better running mate for carrying LA than Breaux?  Breaux is just another Washington insider who has been in the Senate forever.  

I think Kerry has a better chance in LA than any other Southern state...it is Catholic and had been trending Dem.  But I'm pretty much alone in that belief.
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« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2004, 07:41:03 pm »
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If Breaux where is running mate maybe...but it would be unlikely Breaux's big asset would be appeal to moderate and rightward leaning independents (who Edwards would also appeal to but probably more so to the moderates than the rightward leaners) and Breaux on the ticket would pretty much assure the Dems of holding his old Senate seat while his presence might help across the south... and it might well help balance Kerry out... but I donít no if he's the best choice... but back to the question only if Breaux is Kerry's running mate and then its still more likely that Bush would win it...  


Wouldn't Landrieu be a better running mate for carrying LA than Breaux?  Breaux is just another Washington insider who has been in the Senate forever.  

I think Kerry has a better chance in LA than any other Southern state...it is Catholic and had been trending Dem.  But I'm pretty much alone in that belief.


Actually, I'll correct myself.  Breaux would be better than Landrieu for the sole purpose of carrying Louisiana.  Landrieu would be better nationwide.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #7 on: February 25, 2004, 08:18:57 pm »
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Again, Kerry has very little chance of carrying Louisiana, but Edwards sprobably would win it.
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« Reply #8 on: February 25, 2004, 08:27:52 pm »
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Again, Kerry has very little chance of carrying Louisiana, but Edwards sprobably would win it.

just as I said
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #9 on: February 25, 2004, 08:31:05 pm »
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Again, Kerry has very little chance of carrying Louisiana, but Edwards sprobably would win it.

just as I said

I wish we would nominate Edwards Sad

THERE IS STILL TIME!!!  PLEASE!!!!
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« Reply #10 on: February 25, 2004, 09:15:07 pm »
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No Miami.  There is no more time.  (wink).  Nominate Kerry.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #11 on: February 25, 2004, 09:35:22 pm »
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No Miami.  There is no more time.  (wink).  Nominate Kerry.

hey buddy...I got a MArch 2nd Democratic Primary comin' up and I'm votin for yer worst nightmare!!!!
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« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2004, 10:17:35 pm »
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Lousiana might be a toss-up state if Bush was less Conservitive and wasn't from Texas. But thats not the case. Or if Edwards ran on the ticket. Even then I think at the end of the day Louisiana will go to the Republicans.

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WalterMitty
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« Reply #13 on: February 25, 2004, 11:56:24 pm »
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landrieu is much too conservative to be placed on the ticket with kerry.

the liberal base of the democratic party would throw a fit if she were chosen
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« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2004, 12:02:36 am »
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landrieu is much too conservative to be placed on the ticket with kerry.

the liberal base of the democratic party would throw a fit if she were chosen

Well, Breaux is more conservative than Landrieu by just about every measure. (National Journal ratings, ADA/ACU scores, etc.)

And the liberal base wants to beat Bush badly enough that they wouldn't "throw a fit" unless the VP nominee was fundamentally pro-life.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #15 on: February 26, 2004, 05:49:28 am »
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Louisiana is certainly winnable for any Democrat (well... maybe not Dean...)

Something to note from the 2000 result is this: Gore did a LOT worse in the Cajun part of the state than is normal for a Democrat.
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« Reply #16 on: February 26, 2004, 07:01:32 am »
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Louisiana is certainly winnable for any Democrat (well... maybe not Dean...)

Something to note from the 2000 result is this: Gore did a LOT worse in the Cajun part of the state than is normal for a Democrat.
I've once seen it put that La. actually has a three party system: There are Republicans, there are Democrats, and there are Cajuns. You need to carry two of these groups to win.
The Democrats have a chance of winning La, even with Kerry, but while larger than in the average Southern state it is still a very small chance. I have it as lean rep in my predictions.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #17 on: February 26, 2004, 08:03:36 am »
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Lousiana might be a toss-up state if Bush was less Conservitive and wasn't from Texas. But thats not the case. Or if Edwards ran on the ticket. Even then I think at the end of the day Louisiana will go to the Republicans.

I was saying Edwards coduld win it if he was at the top of the ticket.
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« Reply #18 on: February 26, 2004, 08:50:27 am »
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I have it as a lean-D (I think. I've not updated my map for a while).
Louisiana is a strange state... socially one of the most right wing states in America and economically one of the most left wing...

BTW the Cajun area actually voted for Dukakis in 1988.  Could someone explain why Gore did so badly there?
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« Reply #19 on: February 26, 2004, 12:01:36 pm »
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Does anyone know the racial percentages in this state?

the last census:
whites:67.3%
Blacks:30.8%
Asian: 1.0%
Native Americans: 0.4%
others:0.5%

in this 100% 2.2% are hispanic
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« Reply #20 on: February 26, 2004, 12:40:10 pm »
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Does anyone know the racial percentages in this state?

The key number is 62.5% non-hispanic whites - basically your prime Republican voter.  This is a fairly low percentage - a little higher than Mississippi, a little lower than South Carolina.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/22000.html
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« Reply #21 on: February 26, 2004, 12:48:47 pm »
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The only reliably GOP voters in Louisiana live in the 1st district.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #22 on: February 26, 2004, 04:20:15 pm »
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There's a lot of "disguised unemployment" in Louisiana...
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #23 on: February 26, 2004, 04:22:06 pm »
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There's a lot of "disguised unemployment" in Louisiana...

But there's a helluva lot more in Western PA, Ohio, and WV.
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« Reply #24 on: February 26, 2004, 04:25:43 pm »
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It's bad in Louisiana... but it's horrific all over Appalachia Sad
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