Basque and Galician Regional Elections, 1 March 2009

[Bono]

Well, these two Spanish regions will have elections this year.

Current Galician parliament composition is (with last election vote share):

PP 45.2% 37 seats
PSOE 33.2% 25 seats
BNG, Galician Nationalist Bloc (a coalition of left-of-center nationalist groupings, ranging from outright Trots to social-liberals) 18.7% 13 seats

Government is a coalition of the PSOE and the BNG. If you'd ask me, I'd say the PP will probably retake this now that Irribarne is gone, but I haven't seen any plls backing me up, so I may be wrong.

Current Basque parliament composition is (with last election vote share):
EAJ-PNV (Basque Nationalist Party), Christian-Democratic and separatist, 38.6% (in coalition with EA) 22 seats
EA (Basque Solidarity), Social-Democratic and separatist, 38.6% (in coalition with the PNV) 7 seats
PSOE 22.6% 18 seats
PP 17.3% 15 seats
EHAK (Basque Countries Communist Party), Separatist Communist, banned in 2008, 12.5% 9 seats
IU 5.4% 3 seats
ARALAR, Basically reformed Batasuna, socialist separatists, 2.3% 1 seat

Current government is a bizarre PNV, EA and IU coalition.

I do have a poll for this one. Keep in mind, this time the EAJ-PNV and EA will run on separate lists:

PNV 36% 29 seats
EA 3% 2 seats
PSOE 31% 26-27 seats
PP 15% 12 seats
IU 5% 4 seats
ARALAR 2.9% 1-2 seats

[minionofmidas]

Well, these two Spanish regions will have elections this year.

Current Galician parliament composition is (with last election vote share):

PP 45.2% 37 seats
PSOE 33.2% 25 seats
BNG, Galician Nationalist Bloc (a coalition of left-of-center nationalist groupings, ranging from outright Trots to social-liberals) 18.7% 13 seats

Government is a coalition of the PSOE and the BNG. If you'd ask me, I'd say the PP will probably retake this now that Irribarne is gone, but I haven't seen any plls backing me up, so I may be wrong.

Ah yes, I remember the last regional election here.
I do have a poll for this one. Keep in mind, this time the EAJ-PNV and EA will run on separate lists:
[/quote]So how will the ETA supporters vote this time?

[Math]

Government is a coalition of the PSOE and the BNG. If you'd ask me, I'd say the PP will probably retake this now that Irribarne is gone, but I haven't seen any plls backing me up, so I may be wrong.

A CIS poll shows a scenario in which PSG and BNG could form coalition for the second time, since Socialist might win 1 more seat, Galician nationalists might keep their seats or even lose 1, while PP might lose 1 or 2.

[Bono]

Well, these two Spanish regions will have elections this year.

Current Galician parliament composition is (with last election vote share):

PP 45.2% 37 seats
PSOE 33.2% 25 seats
BNG, Galician Nationalist Bloc (a coalition of left-of-center nationalist groupings, ranging from outright Trots to social-liberals) 18.7% 13 seats

Government is a coalition of the PSOE and the BNG. If you'd ask me, I'd say the PP will probably retake this now that Irribarne is gone, but I haven't seen any plls backing me up, so I may be wrong.

Ah yes, I remember the last regional election here.
I do have a poll for this one. Keep in mind, this time the EAJ-PNV and EA will run on separate lists:

So how will the ETA supporters vote this time?
[/quote]

Indeed, it seems it was yesterday.

They'll probably create a new party that'll get banned again in a few years.

[Hash]

The latest poll is from February 23 by Público.

EAJ-PNV 34.1% winning 26-28 seats (+4/+6)
PSE-EE 29.1% winning 23-25 seats (+5/+7)
PP 10.9% winning 9-11 seats (-6/-4)
Aralar 8.4% winning 6 seats (+5)
EB-B 6% winning 4 seats (+1)
EA 5% winning 3-4 seats (-4/-3)
UPyD 3.1% winning 1-3 seats (+1/+3)

On most calculations, a EAJ-EA-Aralar-EBB government would have an absolute majority (38 seats out of 75).

Taking all seat projections, the forks are EAJ 26-30, PSE 22-28, PP 9-15, EB-B 3-5, EA 0-4, Aralar 1-6, UPyD 0-3.

Galicia; Current polling from February 22 from El Mundo

PP 44.5% winning 36-38 seats (-1/+1)
PSdeG-PSOE 33.1% winning 25-26 seats (±0, +1)
BNG 18.3% winning 12-13 seats (-1/±0)

The forks taking into account all projections say PP 33-38, PSOE 22-27, BNG 11-16. Obviously, if the PP wins 38 seats tomorrow, it’s all over and the PP wins. Gah. If not, then the current PSdeG-BNG coalition could continue.

Ikusi arte bihar!

[minionofmidas]

ARALAR, Basically reformed Batasuna, socialist separatists, 2.3% 1 seat

Aralar 8.4% winning 6 seats (+5)

So how will the ETA supporters vote this time?

Question answered, I guess...

[Bono]

What the hell is UPyD?

Also, who wants to bet that ARALAR will be banned by the next elections' time--if Euskadi is still part of Spain, o/c. All these bannings indirectly benefit the PNV.

[Hash]

Actually, maybe not. ETA formed an outfit called D3M before the elections but was quickly banned. However, it seems that D3M will stay on the ballot and all votes for them will be counted as 'invalid'. So, Batasuna has called on its supporters to vote invalid/blank.

What the hell is UPyD?

Centrists, social liberals and seculars (good part) but strongly anti-nationalist and opposed to the autonomies status (bad part). Maybe even moreso than the PP. Got a seat in Madrid last year (federal, o/c).

[Bono]

Actually, maybe not. ETA formed an outfit called D3M before the elections but was quickly banned. However, it seems that D3M will stay on the ballot and all votes for them will be counted as 'invalid'. So, Batasuna has called on its supporters to vote invalid/blank.

What the hell is UPyD?

Centrists, social liberals and seculars (good part) but strongly anti-nationalist and opposed to the autonomies status (bad part). Maybe even moreso than the PP. Got a seat in Madrid last year (federal, o/c).

Hmm, are they related to the Ciutadans from Catalonia?

[Hash]

Actually, maybe not. ETA formed an outfit called D3M before the elections but was quickly banned. However, it seems that D3M will stay on the ballot and all votes for them will be counted as 'invalid'. So, Batasuna has called on its supporters to vote invalid/blank.

What the hell is UPyD?

Centrists, social liberals and seculars (good part) but strongly anti-nationalist and opposed to the autonomies status (bad part). Maybe even moreso than the PP. Got a seat in Madrid last year (federal, o/c).

Hmm, are they related to the Ciutadans from Catalonia?

Not related, though there were some merger talks in 2008.

They're awfully similar though.

[Harry Hayfield]

2005 results

Galicia
Popular Party 756,562 votes (45.2%) winning 37 seats
Socialist Party 555,603 votes (33.2%) winning 25 seats
Galician Nationalists 311,954 votes (18.7%) winning 13 seats
Others 15,106 votes (0.9%)
Esquerda Unida-Izquierda Unida 12,419 votes (0.7%)
Popular Party short of an overall majority by 1 seat

Pais Vasco
EA Coalition 468,117 votes (38.4%) winning 29 seats
Socialist Party 274,546 (22.5%) winning 18 seats
Popular Party 210,614 votes (17.3%) winning 15 seats
Communists 150,644 votes (12.4%) winning 9 seats
Ezker Batua 65,023 votes (5.3%) winning 3 seats
Aralar 28,180 voes (2.3%) winning 1 seat
Others 13,474 votes (1.1%)
EA Coalition short of an overall majority by 9 seats

There will be live coverage of the elections on TVEi (Sky Channel 795 in the UK) starting at 9.00pm GMT (10.00pm CET / 4.00pm EST)

[Bono]

2005 results

Galicia
Popular Party 756,562 votes (45.2%) winning 37 seats
Socialist Party 555,603 votes (33.2%) winning 25 seats
Galician Nationalists 311,954 votes (18.7%) winning 13 seats
Others 15,106 votes (0.9%)
Esquerda Unida-Izquierda Unida 12,419 votes (0.7%)
Popular Party short of an overall majority by 1 seat

Pais Vasco
EA Coalition 468,117 votes (38.4%) winning 29 seats
Socialist Party 274,546 (22.5%) winning 18 seats
Popular Party 210,614 votes (17.3%) winning 15 seats
Communists 150,644 votes (12.4%) winning 9 seats
Ezker Batua 65,023 votes (5.3%) winning 3 seats
Aralar 28,180 voes (2.3%) winning 1 seat
Others 13,474 votes (1.1%)
EA Coalition short of an overall majority by 9 seats

There will be live coverage of the elections on TVEi (Sky Channel 795 in the UK) starting at 9.00pm GMT (10.00pm CET / 4.00pm EST)

I already posted that in the first post of the thread. Do you work for the Department of Redundancy Department?

[Bono]

Turnout 16% in Galicia and 17% in Euskadi by noon.

[Harry Hayfield]

I already posted that in the first post of the thread. Do you work for the Department of Redundancy Department?

No, the department for making things as clear as possible (that's all)

[minionofmidas]

Turnout 16% in Galicia and 17% in Euskadi by noon.

Wait, so the election is today? Best change the thread title, then.

[Hash]

I already posted that in the first post of the thread. Do you work for the Department of Redundancy Department?

No, the department for making things as clear as possible (that's all)

Doesn't change the fact that the exact same results were already posted in the first post on this thread.

[Bono]

Turnout 16% in Galicia and 17% in Euskadi by noon.

Wait, so the election is today? Best change the thread title, then.

Oopsies. *whistles*

[Hash]

Map of the 2005 results in Galicia

[minionofmidas]

I already posted that in the first post of the thread. Do you work for the Department of Redundancy Department?

No, the department for making things as clear as possible (that's all)

Same diff.

[Bono]

By 5PM, turnout in Galicia was close to 50%, and 48.8% in Euskadi.

[Math]

PNV wins in Euskadi, too close to call in Galicia.

[Harry Hayfield]

TVE Exit Polls (conducted by Ipsos)

Gallica
Popular Party 44.6% votes winning 36 - 38 seats
Socialists 31.7% votes winning 25 - 27 seats
Gallican Nationalists 17.2% votes winning 11 - 13 seats
Mid Range Estimates: PP 37 PSOE 26 GN 12

Pais Vasco
PNV 38.2% votes winning 30 - 32 seats
Socialists 31.5% votes winning 26 - 28 seats
Popular Party 12.5% votes winning 9 - 10 seats
Mid Range Estimates: PNV 31 PSOE 27 PP 10

[Hash]

Hopefully the PP is kept under 38 seats in Galicia.

Good stuff in Euskadi. Especially nice to see the PP collapse yet again there. Good.

[Bono]

The 30-32 figure is for the PNV alone, not for any coalition. EA is predicted 1-3, and ARALAR 2-4.

[Hash]

First returns from Galicia sez PSdeG 42, PP 36, BNG 16, UPyD 1.

If only these could be the real results.