Obama gains in western Iowa

[All Along The Watchtower]

A number of counties that went for Bush in 2004 in western Iowa, like Crawford, Caroll, and Audubon, went to Obama.

Why? These counties are pretty sparsely populated Midwestern counties-not real strong Democratic territory. Was Obama's stance on issues like ethanol helpful to him here?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Uh, the entire state swung to him (except for one small county.) It shouldn't be a surprise he won counties Bush did by a small number with a large swing towards him.

[Verily]

Interestingly, it's actually due at least in part to Hispanic immigration, at least in Crawford County and that area. Not what you would expect in rural Iowa, but whatever...

In the really strongly swinging areas further south, areas which still voted solidly for McCain but which swung fifteen or twenty points to Obama, I would guess that ethanol was the main factor. Not that it wasn't a factor further north.

[RI]

To be fair, it's not like these are long standing Republican counties. All three mentioned went Dem in 1988, 1992, and 1996.

Compare years:
2008


1996


1992


1988


Iowa is a state in which the electorate does not vary much from side to side. The western portion is more Republican and the eastern portion is more Democratic, but not by that much. The person who wins the state often wins the majority of the counties, stretching well into the opposing side of the state.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Interestingly, it's actually due at least in part to Hispanic immigration, at least in Crawford County and that area. Not what you would expect in rural Iowa, but whatever...

In the really strongly swinging areas further south, areas which still voted solidly for McCain but which swung fifteen or twenty points to Obama, I would guess that ethanol was the main factor. Not that it wasn't a factor further north.

That makes a lot of sense.

[pbrower2a]

Note also that NE-02 (greater Omaha, Nebraska) also voted for Obama, and NE-01, eastern Nebraska other than greater Omaha, but containing Lincoln, came close to voting for Obama.

Eastern Nebraska is much like western Iowa.

[RI]

Note also that NE-02 (greater Omaha, Nebraska) also voted for Obama, and NE-01, eastern Nebraska other than greater Omaha, but containing Lincoln, came close to voting for Obama.

Eastern Nebraska is much like western Iowa.

Obama also ran a lot of ads in the Omaha market, which includes much of western Iowa, which I imagine helped in that area.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Note also that NE-02 (greater Omaha, Nebraska) also voted for Obama, and NE-01, eastern Nebraska other than greater Omaha, but containing Lincoln, came close to voting for Obama.

Eastern Nebraska is much like western Iowa.

Obama also ran a lot of ads in the Omaha market, which includes much of western Iowa, which I imagine helped in that area.

Probably.

Though they keep reelecting guys like Tom Latham and Steve King...so Congressionally, they're still solidly Republican.

[Husker]

Note also that NE-02 (greater Omaha, Nebraska) also voted for Obama, and NE-01, eastern Nebraska other than greater Omaha, but containing Lincoln, came close to voting for Obama.

Eastern Nebraska is much like western Iowa.

Eastern Nebraska is much more in line culturally with states to the east. As you go further west in the state, the culture becomes more and more western and libertarian.

There are a few reasons that I attribute western IA being more democratic this time:

1. Omaha market had ads for a change. Had Obama come to Omaha a few times, I think you would he would have peeled off more counties in western IA and might have taken NE-1 in addition to NE-2.

2. Meatpacking plants in rural IA (and other places) attract Hispanic workers and they voted more democratic this time.

3. Moderate republicans are becoming more and more fed up with the religious right and the war. They tend to be more fiscally conservative, but don't like big business going completely unchecked. 

4. Obama is a good candidate for this part of the country.



To answer an earlier post: Western Iowa is more republican than eastern Iowa because it is more thinly populated (higher populated areas tend to be less GOP) and is less unionized than the eastern part of the state. I occasionally have to go to western IL and I'd say THE difference between here and there is labor unions. Being pro-labor is a plus there and is generally a negative here. Other than that, people would pretty much see eye to eye on issues.

One another thing: I think Iowa is moderated by their caucus system. Before they started getting attention with their caucus in 1972, they were a much more republican state like Nebraska. I think getting to see candidates and having constant attention during that time has made them a much more competitive state than they otherwise would have been.