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Author Topic: PPP-NC - Burr with 41% approval  (Read 3835 times)
Lunar
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« on: February 20, 2009, 07:18:15 pm »
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_219.pdf

RALEIGH - According to the Public Policy Polling firm, North Carolina Republican Senator Richard Burr is showing up with less than a 50% approval rating against two relatively unknown Democrats.

OPINION: BURR IS VULNERABLE
By Tom Jensen, PPP

PPP's newest survey finds Richard Burr polling under the magic 50% mark against two Democrats with virtually no positive statewide name recognition.

He is up 44-30 against former US Senate candidate Jim Neal and 46-27 against former state Senator Cal Cunningham.

Burr isn't exceeding 50% against these guys even though Neal is only viewed favorably by 15% of North Carolina voters and Cunningham by just 10%.

Burr's approval rating actually has hit its highest level in a PPP survey, with 41% of voters approving of his performance compared t0 34% who disapprove. A month ago it was 33/30. His improvement on that front has largely come from playing to the base: in January only 54% of Republicans reported approving of the job he was doing and that number is now up to 70% after a period where he was very visible in opposing the economic stimulus package that most Republican voters share an opposition to. His net approval among Democrats has actually worsened over the last month, going from 18/40 (-22) to 21/52 (-31). He's remained pretty steady with independents, going from +7 last month to +8 this time.

Neal and Cunningham don't appear to stand a chance of even getting out of the primary if one of the better known potential Democratic candidates like Roy Cooper or Heath Shuler ends up making the race. Even among Democrats only 26% have a favorable opinion of Neal and just 18% have a positive view of Cunningham.

Finally, every time we do one of these polls on Burr it seems relevant to compare his standing to where Elizabeth Dole was at this time two years ago. In February 2007 PPP found Dole with a 43/31 approval rating, a net five points better than where Burr stands today. That poll also found her winning a hypothetical match up against Bob Etheridge, a stronger potential candidate than the two we tested against Burr this month, by a comparable 45-30 margin. Burr continues to be in a weaker position politically than the defeated Dole was at the same time in the last election cycle.

Previously PPP found Cooper leading Burr 39-34, and Burr leading Shuler 39-28.

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« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2009, 07:23:28 pm »
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     Aren't huge undecideds rather normal for North Carolina?
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« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2009, 07:46:41 pm »
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Neal is also gay, so I don't know why we're even discussing him in regards to this election.
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« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2009, 07:49:17 pm »
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Neal is also gay, so I don't know why we're even discussing him in regards to this election.

So, back in 2007 people said a black candidate would never win NC, but it happen.
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« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2009, 08:26:17 pm »
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Look, Josh, I know you’d really want it to be the case. And, in many ways, Jim Neal of the same breed of politician as the people who will become the first openly gay Senator and the first openly gay President. But sexual orientation is not race, and some bigotries are more widespread and more tolerated in popular culture than others. Even many of those who are racist are unwilling to admit it, but homophobia is still acceptable in the national public sphere, let alone in a state with a large conservative population. Neal may be very successful on the local level in Chapel Hill, and I wish him the best. But statewide ambitions for any gay politician in most of the country—not just North Carolina—are still at least a decade out of reach.
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« Reply #5 on: February 20, 2009, 09:03:44 pm »
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Look, Josh, I know you’d really want it to be the case. And, in many ways, Jim Neal of the same breed of politician as the people who will become the first openly gay Senator and the first openly gay President. But sexual orientation is not race, and some bigotries are more widespread and more tolerated in popular culture than others. Even many of those who are racist are unwilling to admit it, but homophobia is still acceptable in the national public sphere, let alone in a state with a large conservative population. Neal may be very successful on the local level in Chapel Hill, and I wish him the best. But statewide ambitions for any gay politician in most of the country—not just North Carolina—are still at least a decade out of reach.

You are more then likely right, but anything could happen. How great of a statement would it be to the rest of the US if NC elected an openly gay candidate for senate.
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« Reply #6 on: February 20, 2009, 09:12:26 pm »
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Oh, definitely.  "You can be a U.S. Senator - no matter what you put up your butt!"
I'll have you know that the US Senate does have a strict policy towards that. It is for that reason that I'm surprised Mitch McConnell is still in.
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« Reply #7 on: February 20, 2009, 09:14:30 pm »
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Look, Josh, I know you’d really want it to be the case. And, in many ways, Jim Neal of the same breed of politician as the people who will become the first openly gay Senator and the first openly gay President. But sexual orientation is not race, and some bigotries are more widespread and more tolerated in popular culture than others. Even many of those who are racist are unwilling to admit it, but homophobia is still acceptable in the national public sphere, let alone in a state with a large conservative population. Neal may be very successful on the local level in Chapel Hill, and I wish him the best. But statewide ambitions for any gay politician in most of the country—not just North Carolina—are still at least a decade out of reach.

You are more then likely right, but anything could happen. How great of a statement would it be to the rest of the US if NC elected an openly gay candidate for senate.

Oh, definitely.  "You can be a U.S. Senator - no matter what you put up your butt!"

I hope you know alot of heterosexually couples have anal sex now of days.
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« Reply #8 on: February 20, 2009, 11:30:43 pm »
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Oh my God. Wow.

Anyway, Neal is just a pipe dream. You may have been right on Obama winning NC, but an openly gay guy from Chapel Hill is not doing to win the nomination, much less beat Richard Burr in a general election in an off year where a popular Democrat is not heading the ticket. The only people that could vote for him would be the weirdos in Durham and Orange County, and even then he'd lose in a landslide. It just isn't going to happen. Electing a black and a gay guy are two different things.
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« Reply #9 on: February 20, 2009, 11:36:42 pm »
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State Democratic parties in the South have a long history of halting "unelectable" (read: black) statewide candidates.  Obviously Meek in the less racially polarized Florida is an exception and Artur Davis in Alabama publicly acknowledges he's had pressure to not run from his state party.

Anyway, I have little doubt that the North Carolina Democratic Party has little interest in breaking any national barriers in 2010.
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« Reply #10 on: February 20, 2009, 11:42:34 pm »
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Oh my God. Wow.

Anyway, Neal is just a pipe dream. You may have been right on Obama winning NC, but an openly gay guy from Chapel Hill is not doing to win the nomination, much less beat Richard Burr in a general election in an off year where a popular Democrat is not heading the ticket. The only people that could vote for him would be the weirdos in Durham and Orange County, and even then he'd lose in a landslide. It just isn't going to happen. Electing a black and a gay guy are two different things.

Incidentally, two random rural counties in western North Carolina did vote for Neal in the 2008 primaries. I was never able to figure out why. Neal generally did surprisingly well in the Asheville area. (Neal is in blue, Hagan in red, Williams in green.)



http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=37&f=1&off=3&elect=1
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« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2009, 01:55:40 am »
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Asheville is a very, very artsy area and has a high gay population at UNC-Asheville (Josh says public schools in NC are full of gays). It's not surprising that the Democrats in that area are very left considering that fact and would be accepting of Neal's homosexuality. I'm surprised he didn't win Orange, but I would assume he finished second there. I forgot Durham county is full of blacks, who would not vote for a gay white man.
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« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2009, 01:56:50 am »
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Holy crap. Neal did do well in the western mountainous areas. I have no idea why. I guess all the Democrats in that area are gay?
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« Reply #13 on: February 21, 2009, 02:02:42 am »
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Sometimes in very conservative areas, and I'm not saying this happened in this case, the very few people who turn out for primaries are very liberal.  Like, Obama did extremely well in Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, etc.'s primaries.
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« Reply #14 on: February 21, 2009, 02:15:11 am »
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Which is the more popular Burr in North Carolina?



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« Reply #15 on: February 21, 2009, 05:49:42 am »
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Look, Josh, I know you’d really want it to be the case. And, in many ways, Jim Neal of the same breed of politician as the people who will become the first openly gay Senator and the first openly gay President. But sexual orientation is not race, and some bigotries are more widespread and more tolerated in popular culture than others. Even many of those who are racist are unwilling to admit it, but homophobia is still acceptable in the national public sphere, let alone in a state with a large conservative population. Neal may be very successful on the local level in Chapel Hill, and I wish him the best. But statewide ambitions for any gay politician in most of the country—not just North Carolina—are still at least a decade out of reach.

You are more then likely right, but anything could happen. How great of a statement would it be to the rest of the US if NC elected an openly gay candidate for senate.

Oh, definitely.  "You can be a U.S. Senator - no matter what you put up your butt!"

I hope you know alot of heterosexually couples have anal sex now of days.

I'm opposed to that too.  I believe that men who like anal sex are secretly gay.  Why would you  a girl's ass when there's a perfectly good vagina right there?

The Third Way is best.
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« Reply #16 on: February 21, 2009, 06:06:10 am »
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Sometimes in very conservative areas, and I'm not saying this happened in this case, the very few people who turn out for primaries are very liberal.  Like, Obama did extremely well in Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, etc.'s primaries.

Maybe in Utah, but North Carolina is pretty damn different...unless there are a lot of mountain getaway-type homes there, or something.

A lot of Obama's Utah win related to kick-ass performance in tourist areas.  Although you may be onto something -- Obama totally ruined Clinton in Provo.  But in a rural, downscale county like that?  Doesn't seem like an area that would be flooded with culturally liberal Dems.  Just intuition.

That's not the Asheville area anyway, Asheville is in the northeast corner.  The counties he won are Yancey, which is standard-issue Appalachia (with plenty of Democrats) and McDowell -- which is a Blue Mountains county to its heart, but doesn't especially vote like one.  Odd
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« Reply #17 on: February 21, 2009, 06:38:28 am »
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Look, Josh, I know you’d really want it to be the case. And, in many ways, Jim Neal of the same breed of politician as the people who will become the first openly gay Senator and the first openly gay President. But sexual orientation is not race, and some bigotries are more widespread and more tolerated in popular culture than others. Even many of those who are racist are unwilling to admit it, but homophobia is still acceptable in the national public sphere, let alone in a state with a large conservative population. Neal may be very successful on the local level in Chapel Hill, and I wish him the best. But statewide ambitions for any gay politician in most of the country—not just North Carolina—are still at least a decade out of reach.

You are more then likely right, but anything could happen. How great of a statement would it be to the rest of the US if NC elected an openly gay candidate for senate.

Oh, definitely.  "You can be a U.S. Senator - no matter what you put up your butt!"

Isn't that Idaho's state motto?
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« Reply #18 on: February 21, 2009, 08:08:53 am »
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« Reply #19 on: February 21, 2009, 11:20:04 am »
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Sometimes in very conservative areas, and I'm not saying this happened in this case, the very few people who turn out for primaries are very liberal.  Like, Obama did extremely well in Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, etc.'s primaries.

Western North Carolina is not exactly the land of the ski-bunnies and environmental workers. Although the traditional vote there is Republican, unlike in most of the rural South.

Also, Alcon, Asheville is in Buncombe County, which borders both McDowell and Yancey, although a cursory glance suggests that the influence of Asheville doesn't extend beyond the Buncombe County line (so McDowell and Yancey are still mostly rural). According to Wikipedia, the census does not put either in the Asheville MSA.
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« Reply #20 on: February 21, 2009, 11:35:19 am »
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The most bizarre thing is the strong Neal counties were both very strong for Hillary. WTF?
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« Reply #21 on: February 21, 2009, 09:09:41 pm »
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Sometimes in very conservative areas, and I'm not saying this happened in this case, the very few people who turn out for primaries are very liberal.  Like, Obama did extremely well in Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, etc.'s primaries.

Western North Carolina is not exactly the land of the ski-bunnies and environmental workers. Although the traditional vote there is Republican, unlike in most of the rural South.

Also, Alcon, Asheville is in Buncombe County, which borders both McDowell and Yancey, although a cursory glance suggests that the influence of Asheville doesn't extend beyond the Buncombe County line (so McDowell and Yancey are still mostly rural). According to Wikipedia, the census does not put either in the Asheville MSA.

Oops, my bad.  Was confusing Ashe County and Asheville.  That makes more sense.

The most bizarre thing is the strong Neal counties were both very strong for Hillary. WTF?

Not especially bizarre.  They're Blue Mountains land...Verily is right.  This is essentially Appalachian-ish demographics, just with a traditional Republican heritage.
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