PPP-NC - Burr with 41% approval

[Lunar]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_219.pdf

RALEIGH - According to the Public Policy Polling firm, North Carolina Republican Senator Richard Burr is showing up with less than a 50% approval rating against two relatively unknown Democrats.

OPINION: BURR IS VULNERABLE
By Tom Jensen, PPP

PPP's newest survey finds Richard Burr polling under the magic 50% mark against two Democrats with virtually no positive statewide name recognition.

He is up 44-30 against former US Senate candidate Jim Neal and 46-27 against former state Senator Cal Cunningham.

Burr isn't exceeding 50% against these guys even though Neal is only viewed favorably by 15% of North Carolina voters and Cunningham by just 10%.

Burr's approval rating actually has hit its highest level in a PPP survey, with 41% of voters approving of his performance compared t0 34% who disapprove. A month ago it was 33/30. His improvement on that front has largely come from playing to the base: in January only 54% of Republicans reported approving of the job he was doing and that number is now up to 70% after a period where he was very visible in opposing the economic stimulus package that most Republican voters share an opposition to. His net approval among Democrats has actually worsened over the last month, going from 18/40 (-22) to 21/52 (-31). He's remained pretty steady with independents, going from +7 last month to +8 this time.

Neal and Cunningham don't appear to stand a chance of even getting out of the primary if one of the better known potential Democratic candidates like Roy Cooper or Heath Shuler ends up making the race. Even among Democrats only 26% have a favorable opinion of Neal and just 18% have a positive view of Cunningham.

Finally, every time we do one of these polls on Burr it seems relevant to compare his standing to where Elizabeth Dole was at this time two years ago. In February 2007 PPP found Dole with a 43/31 approval rating, a net five points better than where Burr stands today. That poll also found her winning a hypothetical match up against Bob Etheridge, a stronger potential candidate than the two we tested against Burr this month, by a comparable 45-30 margin. Burr continues to be in a weaker position politically than the defeated Dole was at the same time in the last election cycle.

Previously PPP found Cooper leading Burr 39-34, and Burr leading Shuler 39-28.

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[Lunar]

State Democratic parties in the South have a long history of halting "unelectable" (read: black) statewide candidates.  Obviously Meek in the less racially polarized Florida is an exception and Artur Davis in Alabama publicly acknowledges he's had pressure to not run from his state party.

Anyway, I have little doubt that the North Carolina Democratic Party has little interest in breaking any national barriers in 2010.

[Lunar]

Sometimes in very conservative areas, and I'm not saying this happened in this case, the very few people who turn out for primaries are very liberal.  Like, Obama did extremely well in Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, etc.'s primaries.